commit 9278ce834961372e7ddf2aee8453a36aa2c37c26
parent 0db211a1c8d81614c9613270953b3a69bfdb632c
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 17:43:53 -0400
reduce uncertainty a bit as election date gets closer
Diffstat:
2 files changed, 753 insertions(+), 753 deletions(-)
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -112,7 +112,7 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett
- Increased polarization
Also note that the polls already have some error already
*/
- std_additional_uncertainty := 5.0 / 100.0
+ std_additional_uncertainty := 4.0 / 100.0
if n_republican_win == 0 || n_republican_win == 6 {
// if solid states for the last 6 elections
diff --git a/out/output-2024-06-11.txt b/out/output-2024-06-11.txt
@@ -1,353 +1,520 @@
go run main.go
-State: New York
- Votes: 28
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+State: Pennsylvania
+ Votes: 19
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 678.900000
+ Mean R: 51.612903
+ Std of mean R: 1.917967
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398
+ Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 423.690000
+ Mean R: 48.275862
+ Std of mean R: 2.427658
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258
+ Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 856.800000
+ Mean R: 49.411765
+ Std of mean R: 1.708049
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1959.000000
+ Mean R: 49.928804
+ Std of mean R: 1.129672
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463
+
+State: Maine
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1012.350000
- Mean R: 44.705882
- Std of mean R: 1.562631
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.229298
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050565
- Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1000.000000
- Mean R: 44.800000
- Std of mean R: 1.572565
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.239231
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.054212
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 2012.000000
- Mean R: 44.752652
- Std of mean R: 1.108539
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.775206
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.029326
-State: Vermont
- Votes: 3
+State: Maryland
+ Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Arkansas
+State: Mississippi
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: California
- Votes: 54
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Colorado
+State: Missouri
Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Illinois
- Votes: 19
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: New Mexico
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
-State: Massachusetts
- Votes: 11
+State: North Dakota
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Oregon
+ Votes: 8
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 526.000000
- Mean R: 32.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.033933
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
- Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 525.000000
- Mean R: 36.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.094892
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- N republican wins: 0
+
+State: South Dakota
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 407.000000
+ Mean R: 61.425061
+ Std of mean R: 2.412838
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
+ N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.761558
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000099
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1051.000000
- Mean R: 33.998097
- Std of mean R: 1.461182
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- N republican wins: 0
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 407.000000
+ Mean R: 61.425061
+ Std of mean R: 2.412838
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
+ N republican wins: 6
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.127848
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
-State: Mississippi
+State: Texas
+ Votes: 40
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Arkansas
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: New Mexico
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+State: Connecticut
+ Votes: 7
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Oregon
- Votes: 8
+State: Montana
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Delaware
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Alaska
+State: District of Columbia
Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Indiana
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+
+State: Tennessee
+ Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+State: Ohio
+ Votes: 17
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
+ Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1011.930000
+ Mean R: 53.932584
+ Std of mean R: 1.566922
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036
+ Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 705.760000
+ Mean R: 54.545455
+ Std of mean R: 1.874301
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1717.000000
+ Mean R: 54.184399
+ Std of mean R: 1.202427
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393
+
+State: Arizona
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 499.989000
+ Mean R: 52.131547
+ Std of mean R: 2.234060
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794
+ Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1002.120000
+ Mean R: 52.380952
+ Std of mean R: 1.577674
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264
+ Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 792.370000
+ Mean R: 54.430380
+ Std of mean R: 1.769271
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735
+ Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 411.600000
+ Mean R: 52.380952
+ Std of mean R: 2.461724
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739
+ Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 469.030000
+ Mean R: 50.561798
+ Std of mean R: 2.308566
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480
+ Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 952.650000
+ Mean R: 52.873563
+ Std of mean R: 1.617279
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 4127.000000
+ Mean R: 52.651136
+ Std of mean R: 0.777215
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537
+
State: Florida
Votes: 30
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
- Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 935.250000
- Mean R: 54.022989
- Std of mean R: 1.629656
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629656
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.728014
Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 861.000000
Mean R: 56.097561
Std of mean R: 1.691277
Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.691277
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.818923
- Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 422.820000
- Mean R: 55.172414
- Std of mean R: 2.418555
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.418555
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757170
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1003.850000
Mean R: 57.647059
Std of mean R: 1.559538
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.559538
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.878151
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.143199334764745 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509
+ Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 935.250000
+ Mean R: 54.022989
+ Std of mean R: 1.629656
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574
+ Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 422.820000
+ Mean R: 55.172414
+ Std of mean R: 2.418555
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.14319933476474 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3222.000000
Mean R: 55.856801
Std of mean R: 0.874797
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874797
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.840602
-
-State: Hawaii
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Texas
- Votes: 40
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Missouri
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211
-State: Montana
- Votes: 4
+State: Louisiana
+ Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Wisconsin
- Votes: 10
+State: Michigan
+ Votes: 15
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 658.350000
- Mean R: 51.578947
- Std of mean R: 1.947713
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.947713
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589890
- Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 452.700000
+ Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 634.270000
+ Mean R: 50.549451
+ Std of mean R: 1.985211
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572
+ Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 648.940000
+ Mean R: 50.656455
+ Std of mean R: 1.962593
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833
+ Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 414.520000
+ Mean R: 48.837209
+ Std of mean R: 2.455160
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524
+ Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 557.520000
+ Mean R: 51.086957
+ Std of mean R: 2.117079
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518
+ Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 628.140000
+ Mean R: 49.425287
+ Std of mean R: 1.994863
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 2883.000000
+ Mean R: 50.186413
+ Std of mean R: 0.931204
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077
+
+State: Nebraska
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+
+State: Nevada
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+ Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 357.780000
+ Mean R: 55.056180
+ Std of mean R: 2.629844
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161
+ Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 908.650000
+ Mean R: 52.941176
+ Std of mean R: 1.655842
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
+ Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 449.964000
+ Mean R: 53.596288
+ Std of mean R: 2.351012
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390
+ Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 407.160000
+ Mean R: 50.574713
+ Std of mean R: 2.477757
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348
+ Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 546.910000
+ Mean R: 51.648352
+ Std of mean R: 2.136859
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
+ Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Sample size: 426.000000
+ Mean R: 52.112676
+ Std of mean R: 2.420344
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945
+ Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 431.460000
Mean R: 50.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.349983
+ Std of mean R: 2.407131
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.349983
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3527.000000
+ Mean R: 52.305945
+ Std of mean R: 0.841017
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082
+
+State: New York
+ Votes: 28
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1012.350000
+ Mean R: 44.705882
+ Std of mean R: 1.562631
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767
+ Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1000.000000
+ Mean R: 44.800000
+ Std of mean R: 1.572565
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 2012.000000
+ Mean R: 44.752652
+ Std of mean R: 1.108539
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821
+
+State: Virginia
+ Votes: 13
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+ Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 554.580000
+ Mean R: 48.717949
+ Std of mean R: 2.122487
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068
+ Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 918.810000
+ Mean R: 49.397590
+ Std of mean R: 1.649399
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1473.000000
+ Mean R: 49.141775
+ Std of mean R: 1.302581
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712
+
+State: Wisconsin
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 253.500000
Mean R: 46.666667
Std of mean R: 3.133385
Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 8.133385
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.340964
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
+ Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 658.350000
+ Mean R: 51.578947
+ Std of mean R: 1.947713
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.947713
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604677
Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 429.440000
Mean R: 50.000000
Std of mean R: 2.412786
Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.412786
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.412786
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 452.700000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.349983
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.349983
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1793.000000
Mean R: 50.108418
Std of mean R: 1.180807
Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.180807
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.506997
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348
State: Alabama
Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Idaho
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Maine
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Louisiana
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Maryland
- Votes: 10
+State: California
+ Votes: 54
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Michigan
- Votes: 15
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 414.520000
- Mean R: 48.837209
- Std of mean R: 2.455160
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.455160
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.438028
- Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 648.940000
- Mean R: 50.656455
- Std of mean R: 1.962593
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.962593
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.537558
- Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 628.140000
- Mean R: 49.425287
- Std of mean R: 1.994863
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.994863
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.467259
- Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 634.270000
- Mean R: 50.549451
- Std of mean R: 1.985211
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.985211
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531348
- Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 557.520000
- Mean R: 51.086957
- Std of mean R: 2.117079
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.117079
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.560692
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 2883.000000
- Mean R: 50.186413
- Std of mean R: 0.931204
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.931204
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.512536
-
-State: New Hampshire
+State: Hawaii
Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 630.122000
- Mean R: 50.068399
- Std of mean R: 1.991853
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.991853
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.503903
- Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 468.000000
- Mean R: 46.153846
- Std of mean R: 2.304403
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.304403
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.299252
- Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1140.000000
- Mean R: 48.000000
- Std of mean R: 1.479687
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.479687
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.378791
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 2238.000000
- Mean R: 48.196300
- Std of mean R: 1.056227
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.056227
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.382918
-
-State: North Dakota
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Indiana
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Iowa
Votes: 6
History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
-State: Kentucky
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+State: Minnesota
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 680.800000
+ Mean R: 47.708578
+ Std of mean R: 1.914272
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 680.000000
+ Mean R: 47.708578
+ Std of mean R: 1.915398
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303
State: Washington
Votes: 12
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 306.280000
- Mean R: 44.736842
- Std of mean R: 2.841131
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.507797
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121491
Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 578.100000
Mean R: 41.489362
@@ -355,8 +522,17 @@ State: Washington
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.715866
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.011000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.382533
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005934
+ Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 306.280000
+ Mean R: 44.736842
+ Std of mean R: 2.841131
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.174464
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.103691
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 884.000000
Mean R: 42.614035
@@ -364,300 +540,89 @@ State: Washington
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.329899
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.013275
-
-State: West Virginia
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 385.120000
- Mean R: 66.265060
- Std of mean R: 2.409263
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.075930
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999967
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 385.000000
- Mean R: 66.265060
- Std of mean R: 2.409639
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.076305
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999967
-
-State: Pennsylvania
- Votes: 19
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 856.800000
- Mean R: 49.411765
- Std of mean R: 1.708049
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.708049
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.465061
- Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 678.900000
- Mean R: 51.612903
- Std of mean R: 1.917967
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.917967
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.592176
- Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 423.690000
- Mean R: 48.275862
- Std of mean R: 2.427658
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.427658
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.408221
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.071195627210514 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1959.000000
- Mean R: 49.928804
- Std of mean R: 1.129672
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.129672
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.495366
-
-State: South Carolina
- Votes: 9
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854
-State: South Dakota
+State: Wyoming
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 407.000000
- Mean R: 61.425061
- Std of mean R: 2.412838
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 407.000000
- Mean R: 61.425061
- Std of mean R: 2.412838
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
-
-State: North Carolina
- Votes: 16
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 659.650000
- Mean R: 51.898734
- Std of mean R: 1.945359
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.945359
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607720
- Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1212.120000
- Mean R: 52.747253
- Std of mean R: 1.433972
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.433972
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665307
- Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 534.890000
- Mean R: 53.932584
- Std of mean R: 2.155214
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.155214
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.708707
- Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 456.000000
- Mean R: 57.894737
- Std of mean R: 2.312093
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.312093
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.859858
- Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 410.640000
- Mean R: 51.724138
- Std of mean R: 2.465932
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.465932
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591317
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3273.000000
- Mean R: 53.358690
- Std of mean R: 0.871997
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.871997
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.716334
-
-State: Oklahoma
- Votes: 7
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Tennessee
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Virginia
- Votes: 13
+State: Colorado
+ Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 554.580000
- Mean R: 48.717949
- Std of mean R: 2.122487
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122487
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428576
- Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 918.810000
- Mean R: 49.397590
- Std of mean R: 1.649399
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.649399
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.463907
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1473.000000
- Mean R: 49.141775
- Std of mean R: 1.302581
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.302581
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.445843
-
-State: District of Columbia
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Georgia
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 962.400000
+ Mean R: 53.750000
+ Std of mean R: 1.607190
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 390.100000
Mean R: 50.602410
Std of mean R: 2.531340
Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.531340
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531876
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744
Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 546.000000
- Mean R: 51.648352
- Std of mean R: 2.138639
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
- Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 962.400000
- Mean R: 53.750000
- Std of mean R: 1.607190
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.607190
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714834
+ Sample size: 546.000000
+ Mean R: 51.648352
+ Std of mean R: 2.138639
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1898.000000
Mean R: 52.498815
Std of mean R: 1.146249
Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.146249
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.657834
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361
-State: Nevada
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 546.910000
- Mean R: 51.648352
- Std of mean R: 2.136859
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.136859
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591328
- Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 431.460000
- Mean R: 50.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.407131
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.407131
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 407.160000
- Mean R: 50.574713
- Std of mean R: 2.477757
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.477757
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530631
- Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 449.964000
- Mean R: 53.596288
- Std of mean R: 2.351012
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.351012
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.687658
- Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
- Sample size: 426.000000
- Mean R: 52.112676
- Std of mean R: 2.420344
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.420344
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.612068
- Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 908.650000
- Mean R: 52.941176
- Std of mean R: 1.655842
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.655842
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.670717
- Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 357.780000
- Mean R: 55.056180
- Std of mean R: 2.629844
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.629844
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.746234
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3527.000000
- Mean R: 52.305945
- Std of mean R: 0.841017
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.841017
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.653499
+State: New Hampshire
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 630.122000
+ Mean R: 50.068399
+ Std of mean R: 1.991853
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.991853
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.504554
+ Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 468.000000
+ Mean R: 46.153846
+ Std of mean R: 2.304403
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906
+ Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1140.000000
+ Mean R: 48.000000
+ Std of mean R: 1.479687
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 2238.000000
+ Mean R: 48.196300
+ Std of mean R: 1.056227
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648
-State: Ohio
- Votes: 17
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
- Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 705.760000
- Mean R: 54.545455
- Std of mean R: 1.874301
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.874301
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.745766
- Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1011.930000
- Mean R: 53.932584
- Std of mean R: 1.566922
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.566922
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725363
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1717.000000
- Mean R: 54.184399
- Std of mean R: 1.202427
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.202427
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.750047
+State: Oklahoma
+ Votes: 7
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Rhode Island
Votes: 4
@@ -670,8 +635,8 @@ State: Rhode Island
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 538.000000
Mean R: 40.000000
@@ -679,11 +644,16 @@ State: Rhode Island
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852
-State: Wyoming
- Votes: 3
+State: South Carolina
+ Votes: 9
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Idaho
+ Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
@@ -692,33 +662,99 @@ State: Kansas
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Minnesota
- Votes: 10
+State: Massachusetts
+ Votes: 11
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 680.800000
- Mean R: 47.708578
- Std of mean R: 1.914272
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
+ Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 525.000000
+ Mean R: 36.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.094892
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.580939
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.261121
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 680.000000
- Mean R: 47.708578
- Std of mean R: 1.915398
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
+ Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 526.000000
+ Mean R: 32.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.033933
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.367266
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1051.000000
+ Mean R: 33.998097
+ Std of mean R: 1.461182
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.582065
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.261186
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
-State: Nebraska
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+State: North Carolina
+ Votes: 16
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 456.000000
+ Mean R: 57.894737
+ Std of mean R: 2.312093
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
+ Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 534.890000
+ Mean R: 53.932584
+ Std of mean R: 2.155214
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557
+ Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 410.640000
+ Mean R: 51.724138
+ Std of mean R: 2.465932
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131
+ Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 659.650000
+ Mean R: 51.898734
+ Std of mean R: 1.945359
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275
+ Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1212.120000
+ Mean R: 52.747253
+ Std of mean R: 1.433972
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3273.000000
+ Mean R: 53.358690
+ Std of mean R: 0.871997
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710
+
+State: Alaska
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Illinois
+ Votes: 19
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Kentucky
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: New Jersey
Votes: 14
@@ -730,70 +766,34 @@ State: Utah
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Arizona
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 499.989000
- Mean R: 52.131547
- Std of mean R: 2.234060
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.234060
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.615871
- Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1002.120000
- Mean R: 52.380952
- Std of mean R: 1.577674
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.577674
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.641315
- Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 792.370000
- Mean R: 54.430380
- Std of mean R: 1.769271
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.769271
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.743600
- Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 952.650000
- Mean R: 52.873563
- Std of mean R: 1.617279
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.617279
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.667947
- Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 469.030000
- Mean R: 50.561798
- Std of mean R: 2.308566
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.308566
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530636
- Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 411.600000
- Mean R: 52.380952
- Std of mean R: 2.461724
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.461724
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625170
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.348864117309176 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 4127.000000
- Mean R: 52.651136
- Std of mean R: 0.777215
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.777215
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676845
-
-State: Connecticut
- Votes: 7
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Delaware
+State: Vermont
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: West Virginia
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 385.120000
+ Mean R: 66.265060
+ Std of mean R: 2.409263
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742596
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 385.000000
+ Mean R: 66.265060
+ Std of mean R: 2.409639
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
+
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
@@ -855,152 +855,152 @@ State: Delaware
[ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%)
[ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%)
[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 192, 193): █ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 193, 194): █ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%)
+[ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%)
[ 194, 195): █ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 195, 196): █ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 196, 197): █ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 197, 198): ██ 0.04% (0%)
-[ 198, 199): ███ 0.05% (0%)
-[ 199, 200): ███ 0.05% (0%)
-[ 200, 201): ██ 0.04% (0%)
-[ 201, 202): ██ 0.04% (0%)
-[ 202, 203): ███ 0.05% (1%)
-[ 203, 204): ████ 0.07% (1%)
-[ 204, 205): ████ 0.07% (1%)
-[ 205, 206): ████ 0.08% (1%)
-[ 206, 207): ████ 0.07% (1%)
-[ 207, 208): ████ 0.08% (1%)
-[ 208, 209): ██████ 0.10% (1%)
-[ 209, 210): ██████ 0.11% (1%)
-[ 210, 211): ███████ 0.12% (1%)
-[ 211, 212): ██████ 0.11% (1%)
-[ 212, 213): ████████ 0.13% (1%)
-[ 213, 214): ████████ 0.15% (2%)
-[ 214, 215): ██████████ 0.17% (2%)
-[ 215, 216): ███████████ 0.19% (2%)
-[ 216, 217): ███████████ 0.18% (2%)
-[ 217, 218): ███████████ 0.19% (2%)
-[ 218, 219): █████████████ 0.23% (3%)
-[ 219, 220): ██████████████ 0.24% (3%)
-[ 220, 221): ██████████████ 0.24% (3%)
-[ 221, 222): ███████████████ 0.25% (3%)
-[ 222, 223): █████████████████ 0.29% (4%)
-[ 223, 224): ██████████████████ 0.31% (4%)
-[ 224, 225): ██████████████████ 0.31% (4%)
-[ 225, 226): ███████████████████ 0.32% (5%)
-[ 226, 227): ███████████████████ 0.32% (5%)
-[ 227, 228): █████████████████████ 0.35% (5%)
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-[ 229, 230): ████████████████████████████ 0.47% (6%)
-[ 230, 231): ██████████████████████████ 0.44% (7%)
-[ 231, 232): ██████████████████████████ 0.43% (7%)
-[ 232, 233): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (7%)
-[ 233, 234): █████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%)
-[ 234, 235): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (9%)
-[ 235, 236): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (9%)
-[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (10%)
-[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (10%)
-[ 238, 239): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (11%)
-[ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (12%)
-[ 240, 241): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (13%)
-[ 241, 242): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (13%)
-[ 242, 243): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (14%)
-[ 243, 244): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (15%)
-[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (16%)
-[ 245, 246): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (17%)
-[ 246, 247): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.92% (18%)
-[ 247, 248): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (19%)
-[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (20%)
-[ 249, 250): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (21%)
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-[ 251, 252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (23%)
-[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (24%)
-[ 253, 254): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (25%)
-[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.23% (26%)
-[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (28%)
-[ 256, 257): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (29%)
-[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (30%)
-[ 258, 259): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (31%)
-[ 259, 260): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (33%)
-[ 260, 261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (34%)
-[ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (36%)
-[ 262, 263): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (37%)
-[ 263, 264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (39%)
-[ 264, 265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (40%)
-[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (42%)
-[ 266, 267): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (43%)
-[ 267, 268): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (45%)
-[ 268, 269): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (46%)
-[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (48%)
-[ 270, 271): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (49%)
-[ 271, 272): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (51%)
-[ 272, 273): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (53%)
-[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (54%)
-[ 274, 275): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (56%)
-[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (57%)
-[ 276, 277): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (59%)
-[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (60%)
-[ 278, 279): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (62%)
-[ 279, 280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (63%)
-[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (65%)
-[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (67%)
-[ 282, 283): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (68%)
-[ 283, 284): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (69%)
-[ 284, 285): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (71%)
-[ 285, 286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (72%)
-[ 286, 287): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (74%)
-[ 287, 288): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (75%)
-[ 288, 289): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (76%)
-[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (77%)
-[ 290, 291): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (79%)
-[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (80%)
-[ 292, 293): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (81%)
-[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (82%)
-[ 294, 295): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.16% (83%)
-[ 295, 296): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (84%)
-[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (85%)
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-[ 298, 299): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (87%)
-[ 299, 300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (88%)
-[ 300, 301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (89%)
-[ 301, 302): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (90%)
-[ 302, 303): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.67% (90%)
-[ 303, 304): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (91%)
-[ 304, 305): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (92%)
-[ 305, 306): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (93%)
-[ 306, 307): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (93%)
-[ 307, 308): ████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (94%)
-[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.51% (94%)
-[ 309, 310): ███████████████████████████████ 0.53% (95%)
-[ 310, 311): ███████████████████████████████ 0.51% (95%)
-[ 311, 312): ██████████████████████ 0.38% (96%)
-[ 312, 313): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (96%)
-[ 313, 314): ████████████████████████ 0.40% (96%)
-[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.38% (97%)
-[ 315, 316): ██████████████████ 0.30% (97%)
-[ 316, 317): ████████████████ 0.27% (97%)
-[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.22% (98%)
-[ 318, 319): ███████████████ 0.25% (98%)
-[ 319, 320): █████████████████ 0.29% (98%)
-[ 320, 321): ████████████ 0.21% (98%)
+[ 195, 196): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 196, 197): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 197, 198): █ 0.02% (0%)
+[ 198, 199): █ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%)
+[ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 201, 202): █ 0.02% (0%)
+[ 202, 203): █ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 203, 204): ███ 0.05% (0%)
+[ 204, 205): ███ 0.06% (0%)
+[ 205, 206): ███ 0.06% (1%)
+[ 206, 207): ██ 0.05% (1%)
+[ 207, 208): ███ 0.05% (1%)
+[ 208, 209): ████ 0.07% (1%)
+[ 209, 210): █████ 0.09% (1%)
+[ 210, 211): █████ 0.09% (1%)
+[ 211, 212): ████ 0.08% (1%)
+[ 212, 213): █████ 0.10% (1%)
+[ 213, 214): ██████ 0.11% (1%)
+[ 214, 215): ███████ 0.12% (1%)
+[ 215, 216): ████████ 0.14% (1%)
+[ 216, 217): ███████ 0.14% (2%)
+[ 217, 218): ███████ 0.14% (2%)
+[ 218, 219): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
+[ 219, 220): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
+[ 220, 221): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
+[ 221, 222): ███████████ 0.20% (2%)
+[ 222, 223): ████████████ 0.22% (3%)
+[ 223, 224): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
+[ 224, 225): ██████████████ 0.26% (3%)
+[ 225, 226): ███████████████ 0.28% (3%)
+[ 226, 227): ███████████████ 0.26% (4%)
+[ 227, 228): ███████████████ 0.28% (4%)
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+[ 229, 230): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (5%)
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+[ 231, 232): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
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+[ 233, 234): █████████████████████████ 0.45% (6%)
+[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.53% (7%)
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+[ 244, 245): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (13%)
+[ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (14%)
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+[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (17%)
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+[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (27%)
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+[ 259, 260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%)
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+[ 282, 283): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (65%)
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+[ 294, 295): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (82%)
+[ 295, 296): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (83%)
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+[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (88%)
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+[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.34% (97%)
+[ 316, 317): █████████████████ 0.31% (97%)
+[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.24% (98%)
+[ 318, 319): ██████████████ 0.26% (98%)
+[ 319, 320): █████████████████ 0.31% (98%)
+[ 320, 321): █████████████ 0.24% (98%)
[ 321, 322): ███████ 0.13% (98%)
[ 322, 323): ████████ 0.15% (99%)
-[ 323, 324): ██████████ 0.18% (99%)
-[ 324, 325): █████████ 0.16% (99%)
-[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.14% (99%)
-[ 326, 327): █████ 0.09% (99%)
-[ 327, 328): ████ 0.07% (99%)
+[ 323, 324): ██████████ 0.19% (99%)
+[ 324, 325): ██████████ 0.18% (99%)
+[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.16% (99%)
+[ 326, 327): █████ 0.10% (99%)
+[ 327, 328): ███ 0.07% (99%)
[ 328, 329): █████ 0.09% (99%)
-[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.12% (99%)
+[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.13% (100%)
[ 330, 331): ████ 0.07% (100%)
[ 331, 332): ██ 0.04% (100%)
-[ 332, 333): ██ 0.04% (100%)
+[ 332, 333): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 333, 334): ███ 0.05% (100%)
-[ 334, 335): ██ 0.05% (100%)
+[ 334, 335): ███ 0.06% (100%)
[ 335, 336): ██ 0.05% (100%)
[ 336, 337): █ 0.02% (100%)
-[ 337, 338): █ 0.02% (100%)
+[ 337, 338): 0.01% (100%)
[ 338, 339): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 339, 340): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 340, 341): █ 0.02% (100%)
@@ -1010,9 +1010,9 @@ State: Delaware
[ 344, 345): 0.01% (100%)
[ 345, 346): 0.01% (100%)
[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 349, 350): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 347, 348): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 348, 349): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%)
[ 350, 351): 0.00% (100%)
[ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%)
[ 352, 353): 0.00% (100%)
@@ -1064,4 +1064,4 @@ State: Delaware
[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
-% republicans: 0.522445
+% republicans: 0.557333
