2024-election-modelling

A walking stick to Nate Silver's sportscar
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output-2024-06-11.txt (61269B)


      1 go run main.go
      2 
      3 
      4 State: Illinois
      5 	Votes: 19
      6 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
      7 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
      8 
      9 State: North Carolina
     10 	Votes: 16
     11 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     12 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
     13 	Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     14 		Sample size: 456.000000
     15 		Mean R: 57.894737
     16 		Std of mean R: 2.312093
     17 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
     18 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
     19 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
     20 	Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
     21 		Sample size: 659.650000
     22 		Mean R: 51.898734
     23 		Std of mean R: 1.945359
     24 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
     25 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359
     26 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275
     27 	Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     28 		Sample size: 534.890000
     29 		Mean R: 53.932584
     30 		Std of mean R: 2.155214
     31 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
     32 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214
     33 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557
     34 	Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     35 		Sample size: 1212.120000
     36 		Mean R: 52.747253
     37 		Std of mean R: 1.433972
     38 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
     39 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
     40 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
     41 	Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
     42 		Sample size: 410.640000
     43 		Mean R: 51.724138
     44 		Std of mean R: 2.465932
     45 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
     46 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932
     47 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131
     48 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     49 		Sample size: 3273.000000
     50 		Mean R: 53.358690
     51 		Std of mean R: 0.871997
     52 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941
     53 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997
     54 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710
     55 
     56 State: Oklahoma
     57 	Votes: 7
     58 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     59 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     60 
     61 State: South Dakota
     62 	Votes: 3
     63 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     64 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     65 	Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     66 		Sample size: 407.000000
     67 		Mean R: 61.425061
     68 		Std of mean R: 2.412838
     69 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
     70 		N republican wins: 6
     71 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     72 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
     73 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
     74 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     75 		Sample size: 407.000000
     76 		Mean R: 61.425061
     77 		Std of mean R: 2.412838
     78 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
     79 		N republican wins: 6
     80 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     81 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
     82 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
     83 
     84 State: Vermont
     85 	Votes: 3
     86 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     87 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     88 
     89 State: Wisconsin
     90 	Votes: 10
     91 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
     92 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
     93 	Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     94 		Sample size: 253.500000
     95 		Mean R: 46.666667
     96 		Std of mean R: 3.133385
     97 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
     98 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
     99 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
    100 	Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    101 		Sample size: 658.350000
    102 		Mean R: 51.578947
    103 		Std of mean R: 1.947713
    104 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
    105 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.947713
    106 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604677
    107 	Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    108 		Sample size: 429.440000
    109 		Mean R: 50.000000
    110 		Std of mean R: 2.412786
    111 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
    112 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.412786
    113 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
    114 	Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    115 		Sample size: 452.700000
    116 		Mean R: 50.000000
    117 		Std of mean R: 2.349983
    118 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
    119 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.349983
    120 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
    121 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    122 		Sample size: 1793.000000
    123 		Mean R: 50.108418
    124 		Std of mean R: 1.180807
    125 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578
    126 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807
    127 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348
    128 
    129 State: Colorado
    130 	Votes: 10
    131 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    132 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    133 
    134 State: Georgia
    135 	Votes: 16
    136 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
    137 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    138 	Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    139 		Sample size: 390.100000
    140 		Mean R: 50.602410
    141 		Std of mean R: 2.531340
    142 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
    143 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340
    144 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744
    145 	Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    146 		Sample size: 546.000000
    147 		Mean R: 51.648352
    148 		Std of mean R: 2.138639
    149 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
    150 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639
    151 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851
    152 	Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    153 		Sample size: 962.400000
    154 		Mean R: 53.750000
    155 		Std of mean R: 1.607190
    156 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
    157 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
    158 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
    159 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    160 		Sample size: 1898.000000
    161 		Mean R: 52.498815
    162 		Std of mean R: 1.146249
    163 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371
    164 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249
    165 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361
    166 
    167 State: Ohio
    168 	Votes: 17
    169 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    170 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    171 	Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    172 		Sample size: 1011.930000
    173 		Mean R: 53.932584
    174 		Std of mean R: 1.566922
    175 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959
    176 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922
    177 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036
    178 	Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    179 		Sample size: 705.760000
    180 		Mean R: 54.545455
    181 		Std of mean R: 1.874301
    182 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349
    183 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301
    184 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471
    185 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    186 		Sample size: 1717.000000
    187 		Mean R: 54.184399
    188 		Std of mean R: 1.202427
    189 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749
    190 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427
    191 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393
    192 
    193 State: Pennsylvania
    194 	Votes: 19
    195 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    196 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    197 	Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    198 		Sample size: 423.690000
    199 		Mean R: 48.275862
    200 		Std of mean R: 2.427658
    201 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
    202 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658
    203 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258
    204 	Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    205 		Sample size: 678.900000
    206 		Mean R: 51.612903
    207 		Std of mean R: 1.917967
    208 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
    209 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967
    210 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398
    211 	Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    212 		Sample size: 856.800000
    213 		Mean R: 49.411765
    214 		Std of mean R: 1.708049
    215 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
    216 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
    217 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
    218 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    219 		Sample size: 1959.000000
    220 		Mean R: 49.928804
    221 		Std of mean R: 1.129672
    222 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874
    223 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672
    224 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463
    225 
    226 State: Washington
    227 	Votes: 12
    228 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    229 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    230 	Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    231 		Sample size: 578.100000
    232 		Mean R: 41.489362
    233 		Std of mean R: 2.049200
    234 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
    235 		N republican wins: 0
    236 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    237 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.382533
    238 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005934
    239 	Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    240 		Sample size: 306.280000
    241 		Mean R: 44.736842
    242 		Std of mean R: 2.841131
    243 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
    244 		N republican wins: 0
    245 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    246 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.174464
    247 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.103691
    248 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    249 		Sample size: 884.000000
    250 		Mean R: 42.614035
    251 		Std of mean R: 1.663233
    252 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
    253 		N republican wins: 0
    254 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    255 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566
    256 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854
    257 
    258 State: Alabama
    259 	Votes: 9
    260 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    261 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    262 
    263 State: Kansas
    264 	Votes: 6
    265 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    266 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    267 
    268 State: Kentucky
    269 	Votes: 8
    270 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    271 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    272 
    273 State: Minnesota
    274 	Votes: 10
    275 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    276 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    277 	Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    278 		Sample size: 680.800000
    279 		Mean R: 47.708578
    280 		Std of mean R: 1.914272
    281 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
    282 		N republican wins: 0
    283 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    284 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
    285 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
    286 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    287 		Sample size: 680.000000
    288 		Mean R: 47.708578
    289 		Std of mean R: 1.915398
    290 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787
    291 		N republican wins: 0
    292 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    293 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731
    294 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303
    295 
    296 State: Missouri
    297 	Votes: 10
    298 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    299 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    300 
    301 State: Tennessee
    302 	Votes: 11
    303 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    304 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    305 
    306 State: Arizona
    307 	Votes: 11
    308 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
    309 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    310 	Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    311 		Sample size: 952.650000
    312 		Mean R: 52.873563
    313 		Std of mean R: 1.617279
    314 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
    315 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
    316 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
    317 	Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    318 		Sample size: 499.989000
    319 		Mean R: 52.131547
    320 		Std of mean R: 2.234060
    321 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
    322 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060
    323 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794
    324 	Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    325 		Sample size: 792.370000
    326 		Mean R: 54.430380
    327 		Std of mean R: 1.769271
    328 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
    329 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271
    330 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735
    331 	Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    332 		Sample size: 469.030000
    333 		Mean R: 50.561798
    334 		Std of mean R: 2.308566
    335 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
    336 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566
    337 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480
    338 	Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    339 		Sample size: 411.600000
    340 		Mean R: 52.380952
    341 		Std of mean R: 2.461724
    342 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
    343 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724
    344 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739
    345 	Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    346 		Sample size: 1002.120000
    347 		Mean R: 52.380952
    348 		Std of mean R: 1.577674
    349 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
    350 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674
    351 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264
    352 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    353 		Sample size: 4127.000000
    354 		Mean R: 52.651136
    355 		Std of mean R: 0.777215
    356 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999676
    357 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215
    358 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537
    359 
    360 State: Iowa
    361 	Votes: 6
    362 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    363 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    364 
    365 State: Maine
    366 	Votes: 4
    367 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
    368 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    369 
    370 State: Massachusetts
    371 	Votes: 11
    372 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    373 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    374 	Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    375 		Sample size: 525.000000
    376 		Mean R: 36.000000
    377 		Std of mean R: 2.094892
    378 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    379 		N republican wins: 0
    380 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    381 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
    382 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
    383 	Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    384 		Sample size: 526.000000
    385 		Mean R: 32.000000
    386 		Std of mean R: 2.033933
    387 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    388 		N republican wins: 0
    389 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    390 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.367266
    391 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
    392 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    393 		Sample size: 1051.000000
    394 		Mean R: 33.998097
    395 		Std of mean R: 1.461182
    396 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    397 		N republican wins: 0
    398 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    399 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515
    400 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
    401 
    402 State: Mississippi
    403 	Votes: 6
    404 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    405 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    406 
    407 State: Montana
    408 	Votes: 4
    409 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    410 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    411 
    412 State: Nebraska
    413 	Votes: 5
    414 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
    415 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    416 
    417 State: Texas
    418 	Votes: 40
    419 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    420 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    421 
    422 State: District of Columbia
    423 	Votes: 3
    424 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    425 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    426 
    427 State: Florida
    428 	Votes: 30
    429 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    430 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    431 	Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    432 		Sample size: 935.250000
    433 		Mean R: 54.022989
    434 		Std of mean R: 1.629656
    435 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218
    436 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656
    437 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574
    438 	Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    439 		Sample size: 422.820000
    440 		Mean R: 55.172414
    441 		Std of mean R: 2.418555
    442 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
    443 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555
    444 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836
    445 	Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    446 		Sample size: 861.000000
    447 		Mean R: 56.097561
    448 		Std of mean R: 1.691277
    449 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
    450 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
    451 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
    452 	Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    453 		Sample size: 1003.850000
    454 		Mean R: 57.647059
    455 		Std of mean R: 1.559538
    456 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    457 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538
    458 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509
    459 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.143199334764745 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    460 		Sample size: 3222.000000
    461 		Mean R: 55.856801
    462 		Std of mean R: 0.874797
    463 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    464 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797
    465 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211
    466 
    467 State: Idaho
    468 	Votes: 4
    469 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    470 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    471 
    472 State: Michigan
    473 	Votes: 15
    474 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    475 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    476 	Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    477 		Sample size: 648.940000
    478 		Mean R: 50.656455
    479 		Std of mean R: 1.962593
    480 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
    481 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593
    482 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833
    483 	Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    484 		Sample size: 628.140000
    485 		Mean R: 49.425287
    486 		Std of mean R: 1.994863
    487 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
    488 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
    489 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
    490 	Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    491 		Sample size: 414.520000
    492 		Mean R: 48.837209
    493 		Std of mean R: 2.455160
    494 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
    495 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160
    496 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524
    497 	Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    498 		Sample size: 634.270000
    499 		Mean R: 50.549451
    500 		Std of mean R: 1.985211
    501 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
    502 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211
    503 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572
    504 	Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    505 		Sample size: 557.520000
    506 		Mean R: 51.086957
    507 		Std of mean R: 2.117079
    508 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
    509 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079
    510 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518
    511 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    512 		Sample size: 2883.000000
    513 		Mean R: 50.186413
    514 		Std of mean R: 0.931204
    515 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.579332
    516 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204
    517 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077
    518 
    519 State: Utah
    520 	Votes: 6
    521 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    522 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    523 
    524 State: Virginia
    525 	Votes: 13
    526 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    527 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    528 	Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    529 		Sample size: 918.810000
    530 		Mean R: 49.397590
    531 		Std of mean R: 1.649399
    532 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
    533 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399
    534 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540
    535 	Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    536 		Sample size: 554.580000
    537 		Mean R: 48.717949
    538 		Std of mean R: 2.122487
    539 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
    540 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487
    541 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068
    542 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    543 		Sample size: 1473.000000
    544 		Mean R: 49.141775
    545 		Std of mean R: 1.302581
    546 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.254991
    547 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581
    548 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712
    549 
    550 State: Delaware
    551 	Votes: 3
    552 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    553 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    554 
    555 State: California
    556 	Votes: 54
    557 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    558 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    559 
    560 State: Hawaii
    561 	Votes: 4
    562 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    563 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    564 
    565 State: Indiana
    566 	Votes: 11
    567 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    568 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    569 
    570 State: New Jersey
    571 	Votes: 14
    572 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    573 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    574 
    575 State: Oregon
    576 	Votes: 8
    577 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    578 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    579 
    580 State: Alaska
    581 	Votes: 3
    582 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    583 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    584 
    585 State: Louisiana
    586 	Votes: 8
    587 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    588 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    589 
    590 State: Nevada
    591 	Votes: 6
    592 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    593 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    594 	Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    595 		Sample size: 908.650000
    596 		Mean R: 52.941176
    597 		Std of mean R: 1.655842
    598 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
    599 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
    600 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
    601 	Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    602 		Sample size: 407.160000
    603 		Mean R: 50.574713
    604 		Std of mean R: 2.477757
    605 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
    606 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757
    607 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348
    608 	Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    609 		Sample size: 357.780000
    610 		Mean R: 55.056180
    611 		Std of mean R: 2.629844
    612 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
    613 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844
    614 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161
    615 	Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    616 		Sample size: 546.910000
    617 		Mean R: 51.648352
    618 		Std of mean R: 2.136859
    619 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
    620 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
    621 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
    622 	Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
    623 		Sample size: 426.000000
    624 		Mean R: 52.112676
    625 		Std of mean R: 2.420344
    626 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
    627 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344
    628 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945
    629 	Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    630 		Sample size: 431.460000
    631 		Mean R: 50.000000
    632 		Std of mean R: 2.407131
    633 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
    634 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131
    635 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
    636 	Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    637 		Sample size: 449.964000
    638 		Mean R: 53.596288
    639 		Std of mean R: 2.351012
    640 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
    641 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012
    642 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390
    643 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    644 		Sample size: 3527.000000
    645 		Mean R: 52.305945
    646 		Std of mean R: 0.841017
    647 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945
    648 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017
    649 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082
    650 
    651 State: New Hampshire
    652 	Votes: 4
    653 	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    654 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    655 	Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    656 		Sample size: 1140.000000
    657 		Mean R: 48.000000
    658 		Std of mean R: 1.479687
    659 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
    660 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687
    661 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562
    662 	Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    663 		Sample size: 630.122000
    664 		Mean R: 50.068399
    665 		Std of mean R: 1.991853
    666 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
    667 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.991853
    668 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.504554
    669 	Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    670 		Sample size: 468.000000
    671 		Mean R: 46.153846
    672 		Std of mean R: 2.304403
    673 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
    674 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403
    675 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906
    676 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    677 		Sample size: 2238.000000
    678 		Mean R: 48.196300
    679 		Std of mean R: 1.056227
    680 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
    681 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227
    682 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648
    683 
    684 State: New Mexico
    685 	Votes: 5
    686 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    687 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    688 
    689 State: North Dakota
    690 	Votes: 3
    691 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    692 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    693 
    694 State: Rhode Island
    695 	Votes: 4
    696 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    697 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    698 	Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    699 		Sample size: 538.000000
    700 		Mean R: 40.000000
    701 		Std of mean R: 2.112100
    702 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
    703 		N republican wins: 0
    704 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    705 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
    706 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852
    707 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    708 		Sample size: 538.000000
    709 		Mean R: 40.000000
    710 		Std of mean R: 2.112100
    711 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
    712 		N republican wins: 0
    713 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    714 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.445433
    715 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.001852
    716 
    717 State: South Carolina
    718 	Votes: 9
    719 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    720 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    721 
    722 State: Arkansas
    723 	Votes: 6
    724 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    725 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    726 
    727 State: Wyoming
    728 	Votes: 3
    729 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    730 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    731 
    732 State: Maryland
    733 	Votes: 10
    734 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    735 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    736 
    737 State: New York
    738 	Votes: 28
    739 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    740 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    741 	Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    742 		Sample size: 1000.000000
    743 		Mean R: 44.800000
    744 		Std of mean R: 1.572565
    745 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
    746 		N republican wins: 0
    747 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    748 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
    749 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
    750 	Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    751 		Sample size: 1012.350000
    752 		Mean R: 44.705882
    753 		Std of mean R: 1.562631
    754 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
    755 		N republican wins: 0
    756 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    757 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964
    758 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767
    759 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    760 		Sample size: 2012.000000
    761 		Mean R: 44.752652
    762 		Std of mean R: 1.108539
    763 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
    764 		N republican wins: 0
    765 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    766 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873
    767 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821
    768 
    769 State: West Virginia
    770 	Votes: 4
    771 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    772 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    773 	Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    774 		Sample size: 385.120000
    775 		Mean R: 66.265060
    776 		Std of mean R: 2.409263
    777 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    778 		N republican wins: 6
    779 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    780 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742596
    781 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
    782 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    783 		Sample size: 385.000000
    784 		Mean R: 66.265060
    785 		Std of mean R: 2.409639
    786 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    787 		N republican wins: 6
    788 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    789 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972
    790 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
    791 
    792 State: Connecticut
    793 	Votes: 7
    794 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    795 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    796 
    797 [ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
    798 [ 132,  133):  0.00% (0%)
    799 [ 133,  134):  0.00% (0%)
    800 [ 134,  135):  0.00% (0%)
    801 [ 135,  136):  0.00% (0%)
    802 [ 136,  137):  0.00% (0%)
    803 [ 137,  138):  0.00% (0%)
    804 [ 138,  139):  0.00% (0%)
    805 [ 139,  140):  0.00% (0%)
    806 [ 140,  141):  0.00% (0%)
    807 [ 141,  142):  0.00% (0%)
    808 [ 142,  143):  0.00% (0%)
    809 [ 143,  144):  0.00% (0%)
    810 [ 144,  145):  0.00% (0%)
    811 [ 145,  146):  0.00% (0%)
    812 [ 146,  147):  0.00% (0%)
    813 [ 147,  148):  0.00% (0%)
    814 [ 148,  149):  0.00% (0%)
    815 [ 149,  150):  0.00% (0%)
    816 [ 150,  151):  0.00% (0%)
    817 [ 151,  152):  0.00% (0%)
    818 [ 152,  153):  0.00% (0%)
    819 [ 153,  154):  0.00% (0%)
    820 [ 154,  155):  0.00% (0%)
    821 [ 155,  156):  0.00% (0%)
    822 [ 156,  157):  0.00% (0%)
    823 [ 157,  158):  0.00% (0%)
    824 [ 158,  159):  0.00% (0%)
    825 [ 159,  160):  0.00% (0%)
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    866 [ 200,  201): █ 0.03% (0%)
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    870 [ 204,  205): ███ 0.06% (0%)
    871 [ 205,  206): ███ 0.06% (1%)
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    875 [ 209,  210): █████ 0.09% (1%)
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    881 [ 215,  216): ████████ 0.15% (1%)
    882 [ 216,  217): ████████ 0.14% (2%)
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    885 [ 219,  220): ███████████ 0.19% (2%)
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    887 [ 221,  222): ███████████ 0.20% (2%)
    888 [ 222,  223): ████████████ 0.21% (3%)
    889 [ 223,  224): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
    890 [ 224,  225): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
    891 [ 225,  226): ███████████████ 0.27% (3%)
    892 [ 226,  227): ███████████████ 0.27% (4%)
    893 [ 227,  228): ████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
    894 [ 228,  229): █████████████████████ 0.37% (4%)
    895 [ 229,  230): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (5%)
    896 [ 230,  231): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
    897 [ 231,  232): ████████████████████ 0.35% (5%)
    898 [ 232,  233): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (6%)
    899 [ 233,  234): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (6%)
    900 [ 234,  235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.53% (7%)
    901 [ 235,  236): ███████████████████████████████ 0.54% (7%)
    902 [ 236,  237): ████████████████████████████ 0.50% (8%)
    903 [ 237,  238): ███████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%)
    904 [ 238,  239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%)
    905 [ 239,  240): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (10%)
    906 [ 240,  241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (10%)
    907 [ 241,  242): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (11%)
    908 [ 242,  243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (12%)
    909 [ 243,  244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (12%)
    910 [ 244,  245): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (13%)
    911 [ 245,  246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (14%)
    912 [ 246,  247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (15%)
    913 [ 247,  248): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%)
    914 [ 248,  249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (17%)
    915 [ 249,  250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (18%)
    916 [ 250,  251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (19%)
    917 [ 251,  252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (20%)
    918 [ 252,  253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (21%)
    919 [ 253,  254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (22%)
    920 [ 254,  255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (23%)
    921 [ 255,  256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (24%)
    922 [ 256,  257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%)
    923 [ 257,  258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (27%)
    924 [ 258,  259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.20% (28%)
    925 [ 259,  260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%)
    926 [ 260,  261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (31%)
    927 [ 261,  262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (32%)
    928 [ 262,  263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (34%)
    929 [ 263,  264): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (35%)
    930 [ 264,  265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (36%)
    931 [ 265,  266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (38%)
    932 [ 266,  267): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (40%)
    933 [ 267,  268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (41%)
    934 [ 268,  269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (43%)
    935 [ 269,  270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (44%)
    936 [ 270,  271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (46%)
    937 [ 271,  272): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (48%)
    938 [ 272,  273): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (49%)
    939 [ 273,  274): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (51%)
    940 [ 274,  275): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (52%)
    941 [ 275,  276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.73% (54%)
    942 [ 276,  277): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (56%)
    943 [ 277,  278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (57%)
    944 [ 278,  279): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (59%)
    945 [ 279,  280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%)
    946 [ 280,  281): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (62%)
    947 [ 281,  282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (64%)
    948 [ 282,  283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (65%)
    949 [ 283,  284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (67%)
    950 [ 284,  285): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (68%)
    951 [ 285,  286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (70%)
    952 [ 286,  287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (71%)
    953 [ 287,  288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (73%)
    954 [ 288,  289): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (74%)
    955 [ 289,  290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (75%)
    956 [ 290,  291): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (77%)
    957 [ 291,  292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (78%)
    958 [ 292,  293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%)
    959 [ 293,  294): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (81%)
    960 [ 294,  295): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (82%)
    961 [ 295,  296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (83%)
    962 [ 296,  297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (84%)
    963 [ 297,  298): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.02% (85%)
    964 [ 298,  299): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (86%)
    965 [ 299,  300): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (87%)
    966 [ 300,  301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (88%)
    967 [ 301,  302): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (89%)
    968 [ 302,  303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (90%)
    969 [ 303,  304): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (91%)
    970 [ 304,  305): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (91%)
    971 [ 305,  306): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%)
    972 [ 306,  307): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (93%)
    973 [ 307,  308): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (93%)
    974 [ 308,  309): ███████████████████████████████ 0.55% (94%)
    975 [ 309,  310): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%)
    976 [ 310,  311): ████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (95%)
    977 [ 311,  312): ████████████████████████ 0.43% (95%)
    978 [ 312,  313): ███████████████████████ 0.41% (96%)
    979 [ 313,  314): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (96%)
    980 [ 314,  315): ███████████████████████ 0.41% (97%)
    981 [ 315,  316): ███████████████████ 0.33% (97%)
    982 [ 316,  317): █████████████████ 0.30% (97%)
    983 [ 317,  318): █████████████ 0.23% (98%)
    984 [ 318,  319): ███████████████ 0.26% (98%)
    985 [ 319,  320): ██████████████████ 0.32% (98%)
    986 [ 320,  321): █████████████ 0.23% (98%)
    987 [ 321,  322): ███████ 0.14% (98%)
    988 [ 322,  323): ████████ 0.15% (99%)
    989 [ 323,  324): ██████████ 0.19% (99%)
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    992 [ 326,  327): █████ 0.10% (99%)
    993 [ 327,  328): ███ 0.07% (99%)
    994 [ 328,  329): ████ 0.09% (99%)
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    999 [ 333,  334): ███ 0.05% (100%)
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   1103 [ 437,  438):  0.00% (100%)
   1104 [ 438,  439):  0.00% (100%)
   1105 [ 439,  440):  0.00% (100%)
   1106 [ 440,  441):  0.00% (100%)
   1107 [ 441,  442):  0.00% (100%)
   1108 [ 442,  443):  0.00% (100%)
   1109 [ 443,  444):  0.00% (100%)
   1110 [ 444,  445):  0.00% (100%)
   1111 [ 445,  446):  0.00% (100%)
   1112 [ 446,  447):  0.00% (100%)
   1113 [ 447,  448):  0.00% (100%)
   1114 [ 448,  449):  0.00% (100%)
   1115 [ 449,  450):  0.00% (100%)
   1116 [ 450,  451):  0.00% (100%)
   1117 [ 451,  452):  0.00% (100%)
   1118 [ 452,  453):  0.00% (100%)
   1119 [ 453,  454):  0.00% (100%)
   1120 [ 454,  455):  0.00% (100%)
   1121 [ 455,  456):  0.00% (100%)
   1122 [ 456,  457):  0.00% (100%)
   1123 [ 457,  458):  0.00% (100%)
   1124 [ 458,  459):  0.00% (100%)
   1125 [ 459,  460):  0.00% (100%)
   1126 [ 460,  461):  0.00% (100%)
   1127 [ 461,  462):  0.00% (100%)
   1128 [ 462,  463):  0.00% (100%)
   1129 [ 463,  464):  0.00% (100%)
   1130 [ 464,  465):  0.00% (100%)
   1131 [ 465,  466):  0.00% (100%)
   1132 [ 466,  467):  0.00% (100%)
   1133 [ 467,  468):  0.00% (100%)
   1134 [ 468,  469):  0.00% (100%)
   1135 [ 469,  470):  0.00% (100%)
   1136 [ 470,  471):  0.00% (100%)
   1137 [ 471,  472):  0.00% (100%)
   1138 [ 472,  473):  0.00% (100%)
   1139 [ 473,  474):  0.00% (100%)
   1140 [ 474,  475):  0.00% (100%)
   1141 [ 475,  476):  0.00% (100%)
   1142 [ 476,  477):  0.00% (100%)
   1143 [ 477,  478):  0.00% (100%)
   1144 [ 478,  479):  0.00% (100%)
   1145 [ 479,  480):  0.00% (100%)
   1146 [ 480,  481):  0.00% (100%)
   1147 [ 481,  482):  0.00% (100%)
   1148 [ 482,  483):  0.00% (100%)
   1149 [ 483,  484):  0.00% (100%)
   1150 [ 484,  485):  0.00% (100%)
   1151 [ 485,  486):  0.00% (100%)
   1152 [ 486,  487):  0.00% (100%)
   1153 [ 487,  488):  0.00% (100%)
   1154 [ 488,  489):  0.00% (100%)
   1155 [ 489,  490):  0.00% (100%)
   1156 [ 490,  491):  0.00% (100%)
   1157 [ 491,  492):  0.00% (100%)
   1158 [ 492,  493):  0.00% (100%)
   1159 [ 493,  494):  0.00% (100%)
   1160 [ 494,  495):  0.00% (100%)
   1161 [ 495,  496):  0.00% (100%)
   1162 [ 496,  497):  0.00% (100%)
   1163 [ 497,  498):  0.00% (100%)
   1164 [ 498,  499):  0.00% (100%)
   1165 [ 499,  500):  0.00% (100%)
   1166 [ 500,  501):  0.00% (100%)
   1167 [ 501,  502):  0.00% (100%)
   1168 [ 502,  503):  0.00% (100%)
   1169 [ 503,  504):  0.00% (100%)
   1170 [ 504,  505):  0.00% (100%)
   1171 [ 505,  506):  0.00% (100%)
   1172 [ 506,  507):  0.00% (100%)
   1173 [ 507,  508):  0.00% (100%)
   1174 [ 508,  509):  0.00% (100%)
   1175 [ 509,  510):  0.00% (100%)
   1176 [ 510,  511):  0.00% (100%)
   1177 [ 511,  512):  0.00% (100%)
   1178 [ 512,  513):  0.00% (100%)
   1179 [ 513,  514):  0.00% (100%)
   1180 [ 514,  515):  0.00% (100%)
   1181 [ 515,  516):  0.00% (100%)
   1182 [ 516,  517):  0.00% (100%)
   1183 [ 517,  518):  0.00% (100%)
   1184 [ 518,  519):  0.00% (100%)
   1185 [ 519,  520):  0.00% (100%)
   1186 [ 520,  521):  0.00% (100%)
   1187 [ 521,  522):  0.00% (100%)
   1188 [ 522,  523):  0.00% (100%)
   1189 [ 523,  524):  0.00% (100%)
   1190 [ 524,  525):  0.00% (100%)
   1191 [ 525,  526):  0.00% (100%)
   1192 [ 526,  527):  0.00% (100%)
   1193 [ 527,  528):  0.00% (100%)
   1194 [ 528,  529):  0.00% (100%)
   1195 [ 529,  530):  0.00% (100%)
   1196 [ 530,  531):  0.00% (100%)
   1197 [ 531,  532):  0.00% (100%)
   1198 [ 532,  533):  0.00% (100%)
   1199 [ 533,  534):  0.00% (100%)
   1200 [ 534,  535):  0.00% (100%)
   1201 [ 535,  536):  0.00% (100%)
   1202 [ 536,  537):  0.00% (100%)
   1203 [ 537,  538):  0.00% (100%)
   1204 
   1205 % republicans: 0.557435