commit 895baeb1ad3e02ebef318753a230bba769198ce4
parent c4b27215e2431b1f42b0c398e49551a646a8abb7
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 2 Jun 2024 22:30:32 +0200
save outputs, tweak num samples & output width
Diffstat:
4 files changed, 1138 insertions(+), 2 deletions(-)
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -298,7 +298,7 @@ func printElectoralCollegeHistogram(samples []int) {
cp := 0.0
for i, count := range histogram {
- bar_length := (count * 75) / max_count // Assuming max_count bar length is 50 characters
+ bar_length := (count * 100) / max_count // Assuming max_count bar length is 50 characters. 75.
p := float64(count) / float64(len(samples)) * 100
cp += p
@@ -491,7 +491,7 @@ func main() {
return
}
- n_sims := 100_000
+ n_sims := 1_000_000
printStates(states)
fmt.Printf("\n\n")
diff --git a/makefile b/makefile
@@ -1,6 +1,9 @@
run:
go run main.go
+save:
+ go run main.go > "out/output-$$(date +"%Y-%m-%d").txt"
+
polls:
mkdir -p data/polls
rm data/polls/president_polls.csv
diff --git a/output.txt b/out/output-2024-04-15.txt
diff --git a/out/output-2024-06-02.txt b/out/output-2024-06-02.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,1133 @@
+
+
+State: Massachusetts
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 526.000000
+ Mean R: 32.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.033933
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Trump:32] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 526.000000
+ Mean R: 32.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.033933
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
+
+State: Mississippi
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Texas
+ Votes: 40
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Vermont
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Kansas
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Kentucky
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Michigan
+ Votes: 15
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 634.270000
+ Mean R: 50.549451
+ Std of mean R: 1.985211
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.985211
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531348
+ Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 557.520000
+ Mean R: 51.086957
+ Std of mean R: 2.117079
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.117079
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.560692
+ Poll: {PollId:86899 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:1 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 572.880000
+ Mean R: 49.462366
+ Std of mean R: 2.088878
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.398443
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.088878
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.469772
+ Poll: {PollId:86906 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 417.600000
+ Mean R: 53.750000
+ Std of mean R: 2.439860
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.937850
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.439860
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.692884
+ Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 414.520000
+ Mean R: 48.837209
+ Std of mean R: 2.455160
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.455160
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.438028
+ Poll: {PollId:86990 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:47 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 654.720000
+ Mean R: 50.537634
+ Std of mean R: 1.953966
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.608400
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.953966
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530813
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3251 PollResults:map[Biden:49.35952834221638 Trump:50.64047165778362] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3251.000000
+ Mean R: 50.640472
+ Std of mean R: 0.876851
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.767434
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.876851
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543392
+
+State: New Hampshire
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1140.000000
+ Mean R: 48.000000
+ Std of mean R: 1.479687
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.479687
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.378791
+ Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 468.000000
+ Mean R: 46.153846
+ Std of mean R: 2.304403
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.304403
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.299252
+ Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 630.122000
+ Mean R: 50.068399
+ Std of mean R: 1.991853
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.991853
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.503903
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 2238.000000
+ Mean R: 48.196300
+ Std of mean R: 1.056227
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.056227
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.382918
+
+State: North Carolina
+ Votes: 16
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 659.650000
+ Mean R: 51.898734
+ Std of mean R: 1.945359
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.945359
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607720
+ Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 534.890000
+ Mean R: 53.932584
+ Std of mean R: 2.155214
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.155214
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.708707
+ Poll: {PollId:86992 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Harris:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 647.680000
+ Mean R: 54.347826
+ Std of mean R: 1.957229
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.986839
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.957229
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.733994
+ Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 410.640000
+ Mean R: 51.724138
+ Std of mean R: 2.465932
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.465932
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591317
+ Poll: {PollId:87012 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 861.720000
+ Mean R: 51.162791
+ Std of mean R: 1.702823
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.752653
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.702823
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568862
+ Poll: {PollId:86883 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:42.6] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 484.200000
+ Mean R: 52.788104
+ Std of mean R: 2.268722
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.890451
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.268722
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649353
+ Poll: {PollId:86907 SampleSize:553 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 447.930000
+ Mean R: 54.320988
+ Std of mean R: 2.353624
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.966813
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.353624
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.721600
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4046 PollResults:map[Biden:47.24035080349221 Trump:52.75964919650779] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 4046.000000
+ Mean R: 52.759649
+ Std of mean R: 0.784864
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999781
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.784864
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683335
+
+State: North Dakota
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Wisconsin
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:86902 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:0 Stein:0 Trump:47 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 571.020000
+ Mean R: 50.537634
+ Std of mean R: 2.092277
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.601396
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.092277
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530213
+ Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 429.440000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.412786
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.412786
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Poll: {PollId:86879 SampleSize:1457 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Stein:4 Trump:39 West:1] Date:2024-05-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1151.030000
+ Mean R: 49.367089
+ Std of mean R: 1.473642
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.333784
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.473642
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461058
+ Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 658.350000
+ Mean R: 51.578947
+ Std of mean R: 1.947713
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.947713
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589890
+ Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 452.700000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.349983
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.349983
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3262 PollResults:map[Biden:49.810577035070835 Trump:50.18942296492916] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3262.000000
+ Mean R: 50.189423
+ Std of mean R: 0.875437
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.585652
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875437
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.512860
+
+State: Arizona
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:86987 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:51 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 755.250000
+ Mean R: 53.684211
+ Std of mean R: 1.814439
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.978847
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.814439
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.705625
+ Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 792.370000
+ Mean R: 54.430380
+ Std of mean R: 1.769271
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.769271
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.743600
+ Poll: {PollId:86903 SampleSize:529 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 454.940000
+ Mean R: 51.162791
+ Std of mean R: 2.343557
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.690111
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.343557
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.562906
+ Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 469.030000
+ Mean R: 50.561798
+ Std of mean R: 2.308566
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.308566
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530636
+ Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1002.120000
+ Mean R: 52.380952
+ Std of mean R: 1.577674
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.577674
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.641315
+ Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 411.600000
+ Mean R: 52.380952
+ Std of mean R: 2.461724
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.461724
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625170
+ Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 499.989000
+ Mean R: 52.131547
+ Std of mean R: 2.234060
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.234060
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.615871
+ Poll: {PollId:86897 SampleSize:626 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:1 Stein:2 Trump:49 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 575.920000
+ Mean R: 53.260870
+ Std of mean R: 2.079042
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.941612
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.079042
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.677471
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4961 PollResults:map[Biden:47.30000832456701 Trump:52.699991675433] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 4961.000000
+ Mean R: 52.699992
+ Std of mean R: 0.708845
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999930
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708845
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.681875
+
+State: Iowa
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+
+State: Minnesota
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86948 SampleSize:625 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 537.500000
+ Mean R: 48.837209
+ Std of mean R: 2.156072
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.294837
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.822739
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380496
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:537 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 537.000000
+ Mean R: 48.837209
+ Std of mean R: 2.157076
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.294923
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.823742
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380527
+
+State: New Jersey
+ Votes: 14
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Pennsylvania
+ Votes: 19
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:86901 SampleSize:1023 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Mapstead:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 951.390000
+ Mean R: 51.612903
+ Std of mean R: 1.620185
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.840255
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.620185
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596243
+ Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 678.900000
+ Mean R: 51.612903
+ Std of mean R: 1.917967
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.917967
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.592176
+ Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 423.690000
+ Mean R: 48.275862
+ Std of mean R: 2.427658
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.427658
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.408221
+ Poll: {PollId:86908 SampleSize:509 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 427.560000
+ Mean R: 51.190476
+ Std of mean R: 2.417399
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.688803
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.417399
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.563756
+ Poll: {PollId:86993 SampleSize:812 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:43 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:2] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 779.520000
+ Mean R: 52.083333
+ Std of mean R: 1.789283
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.877857
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.789283
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.620524
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3261 PollResults:map[Biden:48.76359220621516 Trump:51.23640779378484] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3261.000000
+ Mean R: 51.236408
+ Std of mean R: 0.875310
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.921104
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875310
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.583338
+
+State: Rhode Island
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 538.000000
+ Mean R: 40.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.112100
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 538.000000
+ Mean R: 40.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.112100
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
+
+State: Tennessee
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86998 SampleSize:501 PollResults:map[Biden:29 Kennedy:8 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 380.760000
+ Mean R: 61.842105
+ Std of mean R: 2.489480
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.156147
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997809
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:380 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1578947368421 Trump:61.8421052631579] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 380.000000
+ Mean R: 61.842105
+ Std of mean R: 2.491968
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.158635
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997797
+
+State: Wyoming
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Delaware
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Illinois
+ Votes: 19
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Colorado
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+
+State: District of Columbia
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Nevada
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+ Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Sample size: 426.000000
+ Mean R: 52.112676
+ Std of mean R: 2.420344
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.420344
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.612068
+ Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 449.964000
+ Mean R: 53.596288
+ Std of mean R: 2.351012
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.351012
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.687658
+ Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 407.160000
+ Mean R: 50.574713
+ Std of mean R: 2.477757
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.477757
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530631
+ Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 431.460000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.407131
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.407131
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 357.780000
+ Mean R: 55.056180
+ Std of mean R: 2.629844
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.629844
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.746234
+ Poll: {PollId:86900 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:2 Stein:1 Trump:51 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 546.460000
+ Mean R: 57.303371
+ Std of mean R: 2.115961
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999721
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115961
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.847634
+ Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 546.910000
+ Mean R: 51.648352
+ Std of mean R: 2.136859
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.136859
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591328
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3165 PollResults:map[Biden:47.01374152092375 Trump:52.98625847907625] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3165.000000
+ Mean R: 52.986258
+ Std of mean R: 0.887171
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999619
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.887171
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.694010
+
+State: South Dakota
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 407.000000
+ Mean R: 61.425061
+ Std of mean R: 2.412838
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 407.000000
+ Mean R: 61.425061
+ Std of mean R: 2.412838
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
+
+State: Arkansas
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: California
+ Votes: 54
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: New Mexico
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+
+State: Utah
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Georgia
+ Votes: 16
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:86989 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 739.350000
+ Mean R: 52.688172
+ Std of mean R: 1.836185
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.928403
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.836185
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652924
+ Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 390.100000
+ Mean R: 50.602410
+ Std of mean R: 2.531340
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.531340
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531876
+ Poll: {PollId:86898 SampleSize:604 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:2 Stein:0 Trump:50 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 549.640000
+ Mean R: 54.945055
+ Std of mean R: 2.122249
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.990100
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122249
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.756256
+ Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 546.000000
+ Mean R: 51.648352
+ Std of mean R: 2.138639
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
+ Poll: {PollId:86905 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:5 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 393.660000
+ Mean R: 53.086420
+ Std of mean R: 2.515245
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.890105
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.515245
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659349
+ Poll: {PollId:86896 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:13 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Sample size: 444.000000
+ Mean R: 55.405405
+ Std of mean R: 2.358988
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.989030
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.358988
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768687
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3062 PollResults:map[Biden:46.91274181699453 Trump:53.08725818300547] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3062.000000
+ Mean R: 53.087258
+ Std of mean R: 0.901858
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999691
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.901858
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.699547
+
+State: Montana
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Virginia
+ Votes: 13
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+ Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 554.580000
+ Mean R: 48.717949
+ Std of mean R: 2.122487
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122487
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428576
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:554 PollResults:map[Biden:51.282051282051285 Trump:48.717948717948715] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 554.000000
+ Mean R: 48.717949
+ Std of mean R: 2.123598
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.273016
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123598
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428587
+
+State: Florida
+ Votes: 30
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
+ Poll: {PollId:86889 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:10 Trump:46] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Sample size: 505.470000
+ Mean R: 55.421687
+ Std of mean R: 2.210823
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.992903
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.210823
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.773939
+ Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1003.850000
+ Mean R: 57.647059
+ Std of mean R: 1.559538
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.559538
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.878151
+ Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 422.820000
+ Mean R: 55.172414
+ Std of mean R: 2.418555
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.418555
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757170
+ Poll: {PollId:86904 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 498.100000
+ Mean R: 55.294118
+ Std of mean R: 2.227735
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.991260
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.227735
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768060
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2430 PollResults:map[Biden:43.72860293633551 Trump:56.27139706366449] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 2430.000000
+ Mean R: 56.271397
+ Std of mean R: 1.006291
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.006291
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.851789
+
+State: Maine
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: New York
+ Votes: 28
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1000.000000
+ Mean R: 44.800000
+ Std of mean R: 1.572565
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.239231
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.054212
+ Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1012.350000
+ Mean R: 44.705882
+ Std of mean R: 1.562631
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.229298
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050565
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 2012.000000
+ Mean R: 44.752652
+ Std of mean R: 1.108539
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.775206
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.029326
+
+State: Oklahoma
+ Votes: 7
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Oregon
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Washington
+ Votes: 12
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 578.100000
+ Mean R: 41.489362
+ Std of mean R: 2.049200
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.715866
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.011000
+ Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 306.280000
+ Mean R: 44.736842
+ Std of mean R: 2.841131
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.507797
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121491
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 884.000000
+ Mean R: 42.614035
+ Std of mean R: 1.663233
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.329899
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.013275
+
+State: West Virginia
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Connecticut
+ Votes: 7
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Maryland
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86882 SampleSize:1115 PollResults:map[Biden:49.9 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:1 Trump:32.5 West:3] Date:2024-05-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 918.760000
+ Mean R: 39.441748
+ Std of mean R: 1.612366
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.279033
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000641
+ Poll: {PollId:86881 SampleSize:719 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:32] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 661.480000
+ Mean R: 34.782609
+ Std of mean R: 1.851844
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.518511
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000008
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1580 PollResults:map[Biden:62.50854300612565 Trump:37.49145699387435] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1580.000000
+ Mean R: 37.491457
+ Std of mean R: 1.217888
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.884555
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000007
+
+State: Hawaii
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Idaho
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Indiana
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+
+State: Louisiana
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Missouri
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Nebraska
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+
+State: Alabama
+ Votes: 9
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Alaska
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Ohio
+ Votes: 17
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
+
+State: South Carolina
+ Votes: 9
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 134, 135): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 135, 136): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 136, 137): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 137, 138): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 138, 139): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 139, 140): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 140, 141): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 151, 152): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 152, 153): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 153, 154): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 154, 155): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 155, 156): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 156, 157): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 157, 158): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 158, 159): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 159, 160): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 160, 161): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 161, 162): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 162, 163): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 163, 164): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 164, 165): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 165, 166): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 166, 167): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 167, 168): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 168, 169): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 169, 170): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 170, 171): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 171, 172): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 172, 173): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 173, 174): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 174, 175): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 175, 176): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 176, 177): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 177, 178): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 178, 179): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 179, 180): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 180, 181): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 181, 182): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 182, 183): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 183, 184): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 184, 185): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 185, 186): 0.00% (0%)
+[ 186, 187): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 188, 189): 0.02% (0%)
+[ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 192, 193): █ 0.02% (0%)
+[ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%)
+[ 194, 195): █ 0.02% (0%)
+[ 195, 196): 0.02% (0%)
+[ 196, 197): █ 0.02% (0%)
+[ 197, 198): █ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 198, 199): ██ 0.04% (0%)
+[ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%)
+[ 200, 201): ██ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 201, 202): ██ 0.04% (0%)
+[ 202, 203): ██ 0.05% (0%)
+[ 203, 204): ███ 0.06% (1%)
+[ 204, 205): ███ 0.07% (1%)
+[ 205, 206): ████ 0.07% (1%)
+[ 206, 207): ███ 0.06% (1%)
+[ 207, 208): ████ 0.07% (1%)
+[ 208, 209): █████ 0.09% (1%)
+[ 209, 210): ██████ 0.10% (1%)
+[ 210, 211): █████ 0.09% (1%)
+[ 211, 212): ██████ 0.10% (1%)
+[ 212, 213): ███████ 0.12% (1%)
+[ 213, 214): ███████ 0.13% (1%)
+[ 214, 215): ████████ 0.14% (2%)
+[ 215, 216): █████████ 0.16% (2%)
+[ 216, 217): █████████ 0.15% (2%)
+[ 217, 218): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
+[ 218, 219): ████████████ 0.20% (2%)
+[ 219, 220): ████████████ 0.20% (2%)
+[ 220, 221): ████████████ 0.20% (3%)
+[ 221, 222): █████████████ 0.22% (3%)
+[ 222, 223): ███████████████ 0.25% (3%)
+[ 223, 224): ████████████████ 0.27% (3%)
+[ 224, 225): █████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
+[ 225, 226): ██████████████████ 0.30% (4%)
+[ 226, 227): ██████████████████ 0.30% (4%)
+[ 227, 228): ████████████████████ 0.33% (5%)
+[ 228, 229): ████████████████████████ 0.41% (5%)
+[ 229, 230): ██████████████████████████ 0.43% (5%)
+[ 230, 231): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (6%)
+[ 231, 232): ████████████████████████ 0.40% (6%)
+[ 232, 233): ████████████████████████████ 0.46% (7%)
+[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (7%)
+[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%)
+[ 235, 236): █████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%)
+[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (9%)
+[ 237, 238): ████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (9%)
+[ 238, 239): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.66% (10%)
+[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (11%)
+[ 240, 241): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.66% (11%)
+[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (12%)
+[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (13%)
+[ 243, 244): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (13%)
+[ 244, 245): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (14%)
+[ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (15%)
+[ 246, 247): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (16%)
+[ 247, 248): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (17%)
+[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (18%)
+[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (19%)
+[ 250, 251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.07% (20%)
+[ 251, 252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (21%)
+[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (22%)
+[ 253, 254): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (23%)
+[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (24%)
+[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%)
+[ 256, 257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (27%)
+[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (28%)
+[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.25% (29%)
+[ 259, 260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (30%)
+[ 260, 261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (32%)
+[ 261, 262): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (33%)
+[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (35%)
+[ 263, 264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (36%)
+[ 264, 265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (37%)
+[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (39%)
+[ 266, 267): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (40%)
+[ 267, 268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (42%)
+[ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (43%)
+[ 269, 270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (45%)
+[ 270, 271): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (46%)
+[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (48%)
+[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (50%)
+[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (51%)
+[ 274, 275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (53%)
+[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (54%)
+[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (56%)
+[ 277, 278): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (57%)
+[ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (59%)
+[ 279, 280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (60%)
+[ 280, 281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (62%)
+[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%)
+[ 282, 283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (65%)
+[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (66%)
+[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (68%)
+[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (69%)
+[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (71%)
+[ 287, 288): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (72%)
+[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (73%)
+[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (75%)
+[ 290, 291): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (76%)
+[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (78%)
+[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%)
+[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (80%)
+[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (81%)
+[ 295, 296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (82%)
+[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.10% (83%)
+[ 297, 298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (84%)
+[ 298, 299): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (85%)
+[ 299, 300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (86%)
+[ 300, 301): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (87%)
+[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (88%)
+[ 302, 303): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (89%)
+[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%)
+[ 304, 305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%)
+[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (91%)
+[ 306, 307): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%)
+[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (93%)
+[ 308, 309): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (93%)
+[ 309, 310): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (94%)
+[ 310, 311): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (94%)
+[ 311, 312): ████████████████████████████ 0.46% (95%)
+[ 312, 313): ███████████████████████████ 0.45% (95%)
+[ 313, 314): ███████████████████████████ 0.45% (96%)
+[ 314, 315): █████████████████████████ 0.42% (96%)
+[ 315, 316): █████████████████████ 0.35% (96%)
+[ 316, 317): █████████████████████ 0.35% (97%)
+[ 317, 318): ████████████████ 0.27% (97%)
+[ 318, 319): █████████████████ 0.29% (97%)
+[ 319, 320): ███████████████████ 0.32% (98%)
+[ 320, 321): ███████████████ 0.26% (98%)
+[ 321, 322): ██████████ 0.17% (98%)
+[ 322, 323): ████████████ 0.20% (98%)
+[ 323, 324): █████████████ 0.22% (98%)
+[ 324, 325): ███████████ 0.20% (99%)
+[ 325, 326): █████████ 0.16% (99%)
+[ 326, 327): ███████ 0.12% (99%)
+[ 327, 328): █████ 0.09% (99%)
+[ 328, 329): ██████ 0.11% (99%)
+[ 329, 330): █████████ 0.15% (99%)
+[ 330, 331): █████ 0.09% (99%)
+[ 331, 332): ███ 0.05% (99%)
+[ 332, 333): ███ 0.05% (99%)
+[ 333, 334): ████ 0.07% (100%)
+[ 334, 335): ████ 0.07% (100%)
+[ 335, 336): ███ 0.06% (100%)
+[ 336, 337): █ 0.03% (100%)
+[ 337, 338): █ 0.02% (100%)
+[ 338, 339): ██ 0.03% (100%)
+[ 339, 340): ██ 0.04% (100%)
+[ 340, 341): █ 0.03% (100%)
+[ 341, 342): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 342, 343): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 343, 344): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 344, 345): 0.02% (100%)
+[ 345, 346): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 350, 351): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 351, 352): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 352, 353): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 353, 354): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 354, 355): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 355, 356): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 356, 357): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 357, 358): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 358, 359): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 359, 360): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 360, 361): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 361, 362): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 362, 363): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 363, 364): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 364, 365): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 365, 366): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 366, 367): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 367, 368): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 368, 369): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 369, 370): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 370, 371): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 371, 372): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 372, 373): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 373, 374): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 374, 375): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 375, 376): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 376, 377): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 377, 378): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 378, 379): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 379, 380): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 380, 381): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 381, 382): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 382, 383): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 383, 384): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 384, 385): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 385, 386): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 386, 387): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 387, 388): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 388, 389): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 389, 390): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 390, 391): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 391, 392): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 392, 393): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 393, 394): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 394, 395): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 395, 396): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 396, 397): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
+
+% republicans: 0.551070
