2024-election-modelling

A walking stick to Nate Silver's sportscar
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output-2024-04-15.txt (46106B)


      1 State: Alaska
      2 	Votes: 3
      3 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
      4 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
      5 
      6 State: Minnesota
      7 	Votes: 10
      8 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
      9 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     10 	Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     11 		Sample size: 522.880000
     12 		Mean R: 48.837209
     13 		Std of mean R: 2.186007
     14 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
     15 		N republican wins: 0
     16 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     17 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.852674
     18 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381397
     19 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     20 		Sample size: 522.000000
     21 		Mean R: 48.837209
     22 		Std of mean R: 2.187849
     23 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
     24 		N republican wins: 0
     25 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     26 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.854515
     27 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381452
     28 
     29 State: New Jersey
     30 	Votes: 14
     31 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     32 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     33 	Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     34 		Sample size: 768.000000
     35 		Mean R: 46.614583
     36 		Std of mean R: 1.800079
     37 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
     38 		N republican wins: 0
     39 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     40 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
     41 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
     42 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     43 		Sample size: 768.000000
     44 		Mean R: 46.614583
     45 		Std of mean R: 1.800079
     46 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
     47 		N republican wins: 0
     48 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     49 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
     50 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
     51 
     52 State: New Mexico
     53 	Votes: 5
     54 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     55 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
     56 
     57 State: Rhode Island
     58 	Votes: 4
     59 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     60 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     61 
     62 State: Arizona
     63 	Votes: 11
     64 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
     65 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
     66 	Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     67 		Sample size: 438.600000
     68 		Mean R: 51.764706
     69 		Std of mean R: 2.385970
     70 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
     71 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.385970
     72 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.594419
     73 	Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     74 		Sample size: 534.000000
     75 		Mean R: 52.808989
     76 		Std of mean R: 2.160294
     77 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
     78 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.160294
     79 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652582
     80 	Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     81 		Sample size: 377.250000
     82 		Mean R: 52.000000
     83 		Std of mean R: 2.572217
     84 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
     85 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.572217
     86 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604158
     87 	Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
     88 		Sample size: 420.000000
     89 		Mean R: 52.857143
     90 		Std of mean R: 2.435764
     91 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
     92 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.435764
     93 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649601
     94 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     95 		Sample size: 1769.000000
     96 		Mean R: 52.389186
     97 		Std of mean R: 1.187435
     98 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
     99 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.187435
    100 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.650302
    101 
    102 State: Florida
    103 	Votes: 30
    104 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    105 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    106 	Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    107 		Sample size: 743.750000
    108 		Mean R: 54.117647
    109 		Std of mean R: 1.827169
    110 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
    111 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.827169
    112 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.726788
    113 	Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    114 		Sample size: 838.000000
    115 		Mean R: 58.711217
    116 		Std of mean R: 1.700805
    117 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    118 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.700805
    119 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.903204
    120 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    121 		Sample size: 1581.000000
    122 		Mean R: 56.551288
    123 		Std of mean R: 1.246648
    124 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    125 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.246648
    126 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.852858
    127 
    128 State: Maine
    129 	Votes: 4
    130 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
    131 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    132 
    133 State: Pennsylvania
    134 	Votes: 19
    135 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    136 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    137 	Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    138 		Sample size: 546.000000
    139 		Mean R: 51.648352
    140 		Std of mean R: 2.138639
    141 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
    142 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
    143 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
    144 	Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    145 		Sample size: 680.000000
    146 		Mean R: 48.235294
    147 		Std of mean R: 1.916218
    148 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
    149 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.916218
    150 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.399302
    151 	Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    152 		Sample size: 882.960000
    153 		Mean R: 51.282051
    154 		Std of mean R: 1.682119
    155 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
    156 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.682119
    157 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.576075
    158 	Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    159 		Sample size: 658.750000
    160 		Mean R: 51.764706
    161 		Std of mean R: 1.946879
    162 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
    163 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.946879
    164 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.600263
    165 	Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    166 		Sample size: 353.420000
    167 		Mean R: 48.780488
    168 		Std of mean R: 2.658859
    169 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
    170 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.658859
    171 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.436744
    172 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    173 		Sample size: 3121.000000
    174 		Mean R: 50.500940
    175 		Std of mean R: 0.894955
    176 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
    177 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.894955
    178 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.533860
    179 
    180 State: South Carolina
    181 	Votes: 9
    182 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    183 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    184 
    185 State: Wisconsin
    186 	Votes: 10
    187 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    188 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    189 	Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    190 		Sample size: 830.000000
    191 		Mean R: 52.289157
    192 		Std of mean R: 1.733705
    193 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
    194 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.733705
    195 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633055
    196 	Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    197 		Sample size: 552.000000
    198 		Mean R: 50.000000
    199 		Std of mean R: 2.128141
    200 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
    201 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.128141
    202 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
    203 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    204 		Sample size: 1382.000000
    205 		Mean R: 51.374819
    206 		Std of mean R: 1.344472
    207 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
    208 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.344472
    209 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.585777
    210 
    211 State: North Dakota
    212 	Votes: 3
    213 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    214 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    215 
    216 State: Oregon
    217 	Votes: 8
    218 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    219 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    220 
    221 State: Alabama
    222 	Votes: 9
    223 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    224 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    225 
    226 State: California
    227 	Votes: 54
    228 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    229 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    230 	Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    231 		Sample size: 921.400000
    232 		Mean R: 36.470588
    233 		Std of mean R: 1.585750
    234 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    235 		N republican wins: 0
    236 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    237 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252417
    238 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
    239 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    240 		Sample size: 921.000000
    241 		Mean R: 36.470588
    242 		Std of mean R: 1.586094
    243 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    244 		N republican wins: 0
    245 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    246 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252761
    247 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
    248 
    249 State: Georgia
    250 	Votes: 16
    251 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
    252 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    253 	Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    254 		Sample size: 522.000000
    255 		Mean R: 50.574713
    256 		Std of mean R: 2.188296
    257 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
    258 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.188296
    259 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531862
    260 	Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    261 		Sample size: 646.000000
    262 		Mean R: 51.764706
    263 		Std of mean R: 1.965998
    264 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
    265 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.965998
    266 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599994
    267 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    268 		Sample size: 1168.000000
    269 		Mean R: 51.232877
    270 		Std of mean R: 1.462570
    271 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
    272 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.462570
    273 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575648
    274 
    275 State: Illinois
    276 	Votes: 19
    277 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    278 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    279 
    280 State: Kansas
    281 	Votes: 6
    282 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    283 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    284 
    285 State: North Carolina
    286 	Votes: 16
    287 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    288 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    289 	Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    290 		Sample size: 883.920000
    291 		Mean R: 51.724138
    292 		Std of mean R: 1.680758
    293 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
    294 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.680758
    295 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.601826
    296 	Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    297 		Sample size: 1106.790000
    298 		Mean R: 51.898734
    299 		Std of mean R: 1.501841
    300 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
    301 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.501841
    302 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.614868
    303 	Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    304 		Sample size: 493.800000
    305 		Mean R: 52.612394
    306 		Std of mean R: 2.246989
    307 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
    308 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.246989
    309 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640756
    310 	Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    311 		Sample size: 526.440000
    312 		Mean R: 52.439024
    313 		Std of mean R: 2.176598
    314 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
    315 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.176598
    316 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633018
    317 	Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    318 		Sample size: 552.000000
    319 		Mean R: 53.260870
    320 		Std of mean R: 2.123611
    321 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
    322 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123611
    323 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676436
    324 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    325 		Sample size: 3562.000000
    326 		Mean R: 52.245190
    327 		Std of mean R: 0.836922
    328 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
    329 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.836922
    330 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649753
    331 
    332 State: Texas
    333 	Votes: 40
    334 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    335 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    336 	Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    337 		Sample size: 929.000000
    338 		Mean R: 54.574812
    339 		Std of mean R: 1.633566
    340 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
    341 		N republican wins: 6
    342 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    343 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.300232
    344 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.917158
    345 	Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    346 		Sample size: 938.280000
    347 		Mean R: 57.142857
    348 		Std of mean R: 1.615572
    349 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
    350 		N republican wins: 6
    351 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    352 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.282239
    353 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.985230
    354 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    355 		Sample size: 1867.000000
    356 		Mean R: 55.865216
    357 		Std of mean R: 1.149183
    358 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    359 		N republican wins: 6
    360 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    361 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.815849
    362 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.981371
    363 
    364 State: Utah
    365 	Votes: 6
    366 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    367 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    368 
    369 State: Washington
    370 	Votes: 12
    371 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    372 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    373 	Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
    374 		Sample size: 510.000000
    375 		Mean R: 43.529412
    376 		Std of mean R: 2.195419
    377 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
    378 		N republican wins: 0
    379 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    380 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
    381 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
    382 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    383 		Sample size: 510.000000
    384 		Mean R: 43.529412
    385 		Std of mean R: 2.195419
    386 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
    387 		N republican wins: 0
    388 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    389 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
    390 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
    391 
    392 State: Wyoming
    393 	Votes: 3
    394 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    395 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    396 
    397 State: Colorado
    398 	Votes: 10
    399 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    400 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    401 	Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    402 		Sample size: 556.160000
    403 		Mean R: 44.318182
    404 		Std of mean R: 2.106434
    405 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
    406 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106434
    407 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.211991
    408 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    409 		Sample size: 556.000000
    410 		Mean R: 44.318182
    411 		Std of mean R: 2.106737
    412 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
    413 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106737
    414 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.212001
    415 
    416 State: Connecticut
    417 	Votes: 7
    418 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    419 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    420 
    421 State: Iowa
    422 	Votes: 6
    423 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    424 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    425 
    426 State: Maryland
    427 	Votes: 10
    428 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    429 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    430 
    431 State: Mississippi
    432 	Votes: 6
    433 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    434 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    435 
    436 State: Virginia
    437 	Votes: 13
    438 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    439 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    440 
    441 State: West Virginia
    442 	Votes: 4
    443 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    444 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    445 
    446 State: Delaware
    447 	Votes: 3
    448 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    449 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    450 
    451 State: Michigan
    452 	Votes: 15
    453 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    454 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    455 	Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    456 		Sample size: 492.800000
    457 		Mean R: 51.250000
    458 		Std of mean R: 2.251640
    459 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
    460 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.251640
    461 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568429
    462 	Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    463 		Sample size: 558.000000
    464 		Mean R: 51.612903
    465 		Std of mean R: 2.115567
    466 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
    467 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115567
    468 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589661
    469 	Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    470 		Sample size: 811.780000
    471 		Mean R: 54.054054
    472 		Std of mean R: 1.749116
    473 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
    474 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.749116
    475 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725973
    476 	Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    477 		Sample size: 852.000000
    478 		Mean R: 52.347418
    479 		Std of mean R: 1.711083
    480 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
    481 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.711083
    482 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.636749
    483 	Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    484 		Sample size: 587.052000
    485 		Mean R: 51.932367
    486 		Std of mean R: 2.062088
    487 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
    488 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.062088
    489 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607814
    490 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3301 PollResults:map[Biden:47.59470467938281 Trump:52.4052953206172] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    491 		Sample size: 3301.000000
    492 		Mean R: 52.405295
    493 		Std of mean R: 0.869249
    494 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.997172
    495 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.869249
    496 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659028
    497 
    498 State: Nebraska
    499 	Votes: 5
    500 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
    501 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    502 
    503 State: Ohio
    504 	Votes: 17
    505 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    506 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    507 
    508 State: Oklahoma
    509 	Votes: 7
    510 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    511 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    512 
    513 State: Tennessee
    514 	Votes: 11
    515 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    516 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    517 	Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    518 		Sample size: 711.020000
    519 		Mean R: 65.753425
    520 		Std of mean R: 1.779618
    521 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    522 		N republican wins: 6
    523 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    524 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446285
    525 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
    526 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    527 		Sample size: 711.000000
    528 		Mean R: 65.753425
    529 		Std of mean R: 1.779643
    530 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    531 		N republican wins: 6
    532 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    533 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446310
    534 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
    535 
    536 State: District of Columbia
    537 	Votes: 3
    538 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    539 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    540 
    541 State: Louisiana
    542 	Votes: 8
    543 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    544 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    545 
    546 State: Nevada
    547 	Votes: 6
    548 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    549 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    550 	Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    551 		Sample size: 552.000000
    552 		Mean R: 52.173913
    553 		Std of mean R: 2.126129
    554 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
    555 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
    556 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
    557 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    558 		Sample size: 552.000000
    559 		Mean R: 52.173913
    560 		Std of mean R: 2.126129
    561 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
    562 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
    563 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
    564 
    565 State: New Hampshire
    566 	Votes: 4
    567 	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    568 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    569 
    570 State: Hawaii
    571 	Votes: 4
    572 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    573 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    574 
    575 State: Idaho
    576 	Votes: 4
    577 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    578 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    579 
    580 State: Indiana
    581 	Votes: 11
    582 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    583 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    584 
    585 State: Montana
    586 	Votes: 4
    587 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    588 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    589 
    590 State: South Dakota
    591 	Votes: 3
    592 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    593 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    594 
    595 State: Vermont
    596 	Votes: 3
    597 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    598 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    599 
    600 State: Arkansas
    601 	Votes: 6
    602 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    603 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    604 
    605 State: Kentucky
    606 	Votes: 8
    607 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    608 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    609 
    610 State: Massachusetts
    611 	Votes: 11
    612 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    613 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    614 	Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    615 		Sample size: 741.480000
    616 		Mean R: 37.837838
    617 		Std of mean R: 1.781052
    618 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    619 		N republican wins: 0
    620 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    621 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.447718
    622 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
    623 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    624 		Sample size: 741.000000
    625 		Mean R: 37.837838
    626 		Std of mean R: 1.781628
    627 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    628 		N republican wins: 0
    629 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    630 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.448295
    631 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
    632 
    633 State: Missouri
    634 	Votes: 10
    635 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    636 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    637 
    638 State: New York
    639 	Votes: 28
    640 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    641 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    642 
    643 [ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
    644 [ 132,  133):  0.00% (0%)
    645 [ 133,  134):  0.00% (0%)
    646 [ 134,  135):  0.00% (0%)
    647 [ 135,  136):  0.00% (0%)
    648 [ 136,  137):  0.00% (0%)
    649 [ 137,  138):  0.00% (0%)
    650 [ 138,  139):  0.00% (0%)
    651 [ 139,  140):  0.00% (0%)
    652 [ 140,  141):  0.00% (0%)
    653 [ 141,  142):  0.00% (0%)
    654 [ 142,  143):  0.00% (0%)
    655 [ 143,  144):  0.00% (0%)
    656 [ 144,  145):  0.00% (0%)
    657 [ 145,  146):  0.00% (0%)
    658 [ 146,  147):  0.00% (0%)
    659 [ 147,  148):  0.00% (0%)
    660 [ 148,  149):  0.00% (0%)
    661 [ 149,  150):  0.00% (0%)
    662 [ 150,  151):  0.00% (0%)
    663 [ 151,  152):  0.00% (0%)
    664 [ 152,  153):  0.00% (0%)
    665 [ 153,  154):  0.00% (0%)
    666 [ 154,  155):  0.00% (0%)
    667 [ 155,  156):  0.00% (0%)
    668 [ 156,  157):  0.00% (0%)
    669 [ 157,  158):  0.00% (0%)
    670 [ 158,  159):  0.00% (0%)
    671 [ 159,  160):  0.00% (0%)
    672 [ 160,  161):  0.00% (0%)
    673 [ 161,  162):  0.00% (0%)
    674 [ 162,  163):  0.00% (0%)
    675 [ 163,  164):  0.00% (0%)
    676 [ 164,  165):  0.00% (0%)
    677 [ 165,  166):  0.00% (0%)
    678 [ 166,  167):  0.00% (0%)
    679 [ 167,  168):  0.00% (0%)
    680 [ 168,  169):  0.00% (0%)
    681 [ 169,  170):  0.00% (0%)
    682 [ 170,  171):  0.00% (0%)
    683 [ 171,  172):  0.00% (0%)
    684 [ 172,  173):  0.00% (0%)
    685 [ 173,  174):  0.00% (0%)
    686 [ 174,  175):  0.00% (0%)
    687 [ 175,  176):  0.00% (0%)
    688 [ 176,  177):  0.01% (0%)
    689 [ 177,  178):  0.00% (0%)
    690 [ 178,  179):  0.01% (0%)
    691 [ 179,  180):  0.00% (0%)
    692 [ 180,  181):  0.00% (0%)
    693 [ 181,  182):  0.01% (0%)
    694 [ 182,  183):  0.01% (0%)
    695 [ 183,  184):  0.01% (0%)
    696 [ 184,  185):  0.01% (0%)
    697 [ 185,  186):  0.01% (0%)
    698 [ 186,  187):  0.01% (0%)
    699 [ 187,  188):  0.01% (0%)
    700 [ 188,  189):  0.02% (0%)
    701 [ 189,  190):  0.02% (0%)
    702 [ 190,  191):  0.01% (0%)
    703 [ 191,  192):  0.01% (0%)
    704 [ 192,  193):  0.02% (0%)
    705 [ 193,  194): █ 0.03% (0%)
    706 [ 194,  195):  0.02% (0%)
    707 [ 195,  196):  0.02% (0%)
    708 [ 196,  197):  0.02% (0%)
    709 [ 197,  198): ██ 0.05% (0%)
    710 [ 198,  199): █ 0.04% (0%)
    711 [ 199,  200): ██ 0.05% (0%)
    712 [ 200,  201): █ 0.04% (0%)
    713 [ 201,  202): ██ 0.05% (1%)
    714 [ 202,  203): ██ 0.05% (1%)
    715 [ 203,  204): ██ 0.06% (1%)
    716 [ 204,  205): ███ 0.07% (1%)
    717 [ 205,  206): ██ 0.06% (1%)
    718 [ 206,  207): ██ 0.05% (1%)
    719 [ 207,  208): ███ 0.07% (1%)
    720 [ 208,  209): ████ 0.10% (1%)
    721 [ 209,  210): ███ 0.09% (1%)
    722 [ 210,  211): ███ 0.08% (1%)
    723 [ 211,  212): ████ 0.10% (1%)
    724 [ 212,  213): ████ 0.10% (1%)
    725 [ 213,  214): ████ 0.10% (1%)
    726 [ 214,  215): █████ 0.12% (2%)
    727 [ 215,  216): █████ 0.12% (2%)
    728 [ 216,  217): ██████ 0.14% (2%)
    729 [ 217,  218): ██████ 0.15% (2%)
    730 [ 218,  219): ███████ 0.18% (2%)
    731 [ 219,  220): ███████ 0.17% (2%)
    732 [ 220,  221): ████████ 0.18% (2%)
    733 [ 221,  222): ████████ 0.20% (3%)
    734 [ 222,  223): █████████ 0.21% (3%)
    735 [ 223,  224): ██████████ 0.24% (3%)
    736 [ 224,  225): ██████████ 0.24% (3%)
    737 [ 225,  226): ██████████ 0.23% (4%)
    738 [ 226,  227): ██████████ 0.24% (4%)
    739 [ 227,  228): ████████████ 0.29% (4%)
    740 [ 228,  229): ██████████████ 0.32% (4%)
    741 [ 229,  230): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%)
    742 [ 230,  231): ███████████████ 0.35% (5%)
    743 [ 231,  232): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%)
    744 [ 232,  233): ████████████████ 0.37% (6%)
    745 [ 233,  234): ███████████████████ 0.44% (6%)
    746 [ 234,  235): ██████████████████████ 0.50% (7%)
    747 [ 235,  236): ██████████████████ 0.41% (7%)
    748 [ 236,  237): ████████████████████ 0.45% (8%)
    749 [ 237,  238): ███████████████████████ 0.51% (8%)
    750 [ 238,  239): ██████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%)
    751 [ 239,  240): █████████████████████████████ 0.65% (9%)
    752 [ 240,  241): ██████████████████████████ 0.60% (10%)
    753 [ 241,  242): ████████████████████████ 0.54% (11%)
    754 [ 242,  243): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (11%)
    755 [ 243,  244): █████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (12%)
    756 [ 244,  245): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (13%)
    757 [ 245,  246): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (13%)
    758 [ 246,  247): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (14%)
    759 [ 247,  248): ███████████████████████████████ 0.71% (15%)
    760 [ 248,  249): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (16%)
    761 [ 249,  250): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (17%)
    762 [ 250,  251): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (18%)
    763 [ 251,  252): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (19%)
    764 [ 252,  253): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (20%)
    765 [ 253,  254): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.01% (21%)
    766 [ 254,  255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (22%)
    767 [ 255,  256): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (23%)
    768 [ 256,  257): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (24%)
    769 [ 257,  258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (25%)
    770 [ 258,  259): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (26%)
    771 [ 259,  260): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (27%)
    772 [ 260,  261): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (29%)
    773 [ 261,  262): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (30%)
    774 [ 262,  263): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.27% (31%)
    775 [ 263,  264): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (33%)
    776 [ 264,  265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (34%)
    777 [ 265,  266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (35%)
    778 [ 266,  267): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (37%)
    779 [ 267,  268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (38%)
    780 [ 268,  269): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (40%)
    781 [ 269,  270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (41%)
    782 [ 270,  271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (43%)
    783 [ 271,  272): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (44%)
    784 [ 272,  273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (46%)
    785 [ 273,  274): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (47%)
    786 [ 274,  275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.66% (49%)
    787 [ 275,  276): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (50%)
    788 [ 276,  277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (52%)
    789 [ 277,  278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (53%)
    790 [ 278,  279): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (55%)
    791 [ 279,  280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (56%)
    792 [ 280,  281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (58%)
    793 [ 281,  282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (60%)
    794 [ 282,  283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (61%)
    795 [ 283,  284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (62%)
    796 [ 284,  285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%)
    797 [ 285,  286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (65%)
    798 [ 286,  287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (67%)
    799 [ 287,  288): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (68%)
    800 [ 288,  289): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (69%)
    801 [ 289,  290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (71%)
    802 [ 290,  291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (72%)
    803 [ 291,  292): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (74%)
    804 [ 292,  293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.17% (75%)
    805 [ 293,  294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (76%)
    806 [ 294,  295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.28% (77%)
    807 [ 295,  296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (79%)
    808 [ 296,  297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (80%)
    809 [ 297,  298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (81%)
    810 [ 298,  299): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (82%)
    811 [ 299,  300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.07% (83%)
    812 [ 300,  301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (84%)
    813 [ 301,  302): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (85%)
    814 [ 302,  303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (86%)
    815 [ 303,  304): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (87%)
    816 [ 304,  305): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (88%)
    817 [ 305,  306): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (89%)
    818 [ 306,  307): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (90%)
    819 [ 307,  308): ████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (90%)
    820 [ 308,  309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.67% (91%)
    821 [ 309,  310): █████████████████████████████ 0.66% (92%)
    822 [ 310,  311): ██████████████████████████████ 0.67% (92%)
    823 [ 311,  312): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (93%)
    824 [ 312,  313): ██████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%)
    825 [ 313,  314): ██████████████████████████ 0.59% (94%)
    826 [ 314,  315): ███████████████████████ 0.52% (95%)
    827 [ 315,  316): ████████████████████ 0.46% (95%)
    828 [ 316,  317): ████████████████████ 0.45% (96%)
    829 [ 317,  318): ████████████████ 0.37% (96%)
    830 [ 318,  319): ████████████████ 0.36% (96%)
    831 [ 319,  320): ██████████████████ 0.41% (97%)
    832 [ 320,  321): ██████████████ 0.32% (97%)
    833 [ 321,  322): ███████████ 0.25% (97%)
    834 [ 322,  323): ████████████ 0.28% (98%)
    835 [ 323,  324): ███████████ 0.26% (98%)
    836 [ 324,  325): ██████████ 0.22% (98%)
    837 [ 325,  326): ████████ 0.19% (98%)
    838 [ 326,  327): ████████ 0.18% (98%)
    839 [ 327,  328): ██████ 0.14% (99%)
    840 [ 328,  329): ██████ 0.15% (99%)
    841 [ 329,  330): ████████ 0.19% (99%)
    842 [ 330,  331): █████ 0.13% (99%)
    843 [ 331,  332): ███ 0.09% (99%)
    844 [ 332,  333): ████ 0.10% (99%)
    845 [ 333,  334): ████ 0.10% (99%)
    846 [ 334,  335): ████ 0.10% (99%)
    847 [ 335,  336): ████ 0.09% (100%)
    848 [ 336,  337): ███ 0.08% (100%)
    849 [ 337,  338): ██ 0.06% (100%)
    850 [ 338,  339): ██ 0.05% (100%)
    851 [ 339,  340): ██ 0.05% (100%)
    852 [ 340,  341): █ 0.03% (100%)
    853 [ 341,  342):  0.02% (100%)
    854 [ 342,  343): █ 0.02% (100%)
    855 [ 343,  344): █ 0.03% (100%)
    856 [ 344,  345): █ 0.02% (100%)
    857 [ 345,  346):  0.01% (100%)
    858 [ 346,  347):  0.01% (100%)
    859 [ 347,  348):  0.02% (100%)
    860 [ 348,  349):  0.01% (100%)
    861 [ 349,  350):  0.01% (100%)
    862 [ 350,  351):  0.01% (100%)
    863 [ 351,  352):  0.00% (100%)
    864 [ 352,  353):  0.01% (100%)
    865 [ 353,  354):  0.01% (100%)
    866 [ 354,  355):  0.00% (100%)
    867 [ 355,  356):  0.00% (100%)
    868 [ 356,  357):  0.00% (100%)
    869 [ 357,  358):  0.00% (100%)
    870 [ 358,  359):  0.00% (100%)
    871 [ 359,  360):  0.00% (100%)
    872 [ 360,  361):  0.00% (100%)
    873 [ 361,  362):  0.00% (100%)
    874 [ 362,  363):  0.00% (100%)
    875 [ 363,  364):  0.00% (100%)
    876 [ 364,  365):  0.00% (100%)
    877 [ 365,  366):  0.00% (100%)
    878 [ 366,  367):  0.00% (100%)
    879 [ 367,  368):  0.00% (100%)
    880 [ 368,  369):  0.00% (100%)
    881 [ 369,  370):  0.00% (100%)
    882 [ 370,  371):  0.00% (100%)
    883 [ 371,  372):  0.00% (100%)
    884 [ 372,  373):  0.00% (100%)
    885 [ 373,  374):  0.00% (100%)
    886 [ 374,  375):  0.00% (100%)
    887 [ 375,  376):  0.00% (100%)
    888 [ 376,  377):  0.00% (100%)
    889 [ 377,  378):  0.00% (100%)
    890 [ 378,  379):  0.00% (100%)
    891 [ 379,  380):  0.00% (100%)
    892 [ 380,  381):  0.00% (100%)
    893 [ 381,  382):  0.00% (100%)
    894 [ 382,  383):  0.00% (100%)
    895 [ 383,  384):  0.00% (100%)
    896 [ 384,  385):  0.00% (100%)
    897 [ 385,  386):  0.00% (100%)
    898 [ 386,  387):  0.00% (100%)
    899 [ 387,  388):  0.00% (100%)
    900 [ 388,  389):  0.00% (100%)
    901 [ 389,  390):  0.00% (100%)
    902 [ 390,  391):  0.00% (100%)
    903 [ 391,  392):  0.00% (100%)
    904 [ 392,  393):  0.00% (100%)
    905 [ 393,  394):  0.00% (100%)
    906 [ 394,  395):  0.00% (100%)
    907 [ 395,  396):  0.00% (100%)
    908 [ 396,  397):  0.00% (100%)
    909 [ 397,  398):  0.00% (100%)
    910 [ 398,  399):  0.00% (100%)
    911 [ 399,  400):  0.00% (100%)
    912 
    913 % republicans: 0.588200