2024-election-modelling

A walking stick to Nate Silver's sportscar
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output-2024-06-02.txt (61687B)


      1 
      2 
      3 State: Massachusetts
      4 	Votes: 11
      5 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
      6 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
      7 	Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
      8 		Sample size: 526.000000
      9 		Mean R: 32.000000
     10 		Std of mean R: 2.033933
     11 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
     12 		N republican wins: 0
     13 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     14 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
     15 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
     16 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Trump:32] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     17 		Sample size: 526.000000
     18 		Mean R: 32.000000
     19 		Std of mean R: 2.033933
     20 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
     21 		N republican wins: 0
     22 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     23 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.700599
     24 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
     25 
     26 State: Mississippi
     27 	Votes: 6
     28 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     29 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     30 
     31 State: Texas
     32 	Votes: 40
     33 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     34 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     35 
     36 State: Vermont
     37 	Votes: 3
     38 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     39 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     40 
     41 State: Kansas
     42 	Votes: 6
     43 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     44 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     45 
     46 State: Kentucky
     47 	Votes: 8
     48 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     49 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     50 
     51 State: Michigan
     52 	Votes: 15
     53 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
     54 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
     55 	Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     56 		Sample size: 634.270000
     57 		Mean R: 50.549451
     58 		Std of mean R: 1.985211
     59 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
     60 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.985211
     61 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531348
     62 	Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     63 		Sample size: 557.520000
     64 		Mean R: 51.086957
     65 		Std of mean R: 2.117079
     66 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
     67 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.117079
     68 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.560692
     69 	Poll: {PollId:86899 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:1 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     70 		Sample size: 572.880000
     71 		Mean R: 49.462366
     72 		Std of mean R: 2.088878
     73 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.398443
     74 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.088878
     75 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.469772
     76 	Poll: {PollId:86906 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     77 		Sample size: 417.600000
     78 		Mean R: 53.750000
     79 		Std of mean R: 2.439860
     80 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.937850
     81 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.439860
     82 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.692884
     83 	Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
     84 		Sample size: 414.520000
     85 		Mean R: 48.837209
     86 		Std of mean R: 2.455160
     87 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
     88 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.455160
     89 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.438028
     90 	Poll: {PollId:86990 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:47 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     91 		Sample size: 654.720000
     92 		Mean R: 50.537634
     93 		Std of mean R: 1.953966
     94 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.608400
     95 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.953966
     96 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530813
     97 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3251 PollResults:map[Biden:49.35952834221638 Trump:50.64047165778362] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     98 		Sample size: 3251.000000
     99 		Mean R: 50.640472
    100 		Std of mean R: 0.876851
    101 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.767434
    102 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.876851
    103 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543392
    104 
    105 State: New Hampshire
    106 	Votes: 4
    107 	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    108 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    109 	Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    110 		Sample size: 1140.000000
    111 		Mean R: 48.000000
    112 		Std of mean R: 1.479687
    113 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
    114 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.479687
    115 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.378791
    116 	Poll: {PollId:86997 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Trump:36] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    117 		Sample size: 468.000000
    118 		Mean R: 46.153846
    119 		Std of mean R: 2.304403
    120 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
    121 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.304403
    122 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.299252
    123 	Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    124 		Sample size: 630.122000
    125 		Mean R: 50.068399
    126 		Std of mean R: 1.991853
    127 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.513697
    128 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.991853
    129 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.503903
    130 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    131 		Sample size: 2238.000000
    132 		Mean R: 48.196300
    133 		Std of mean R: 1.056227
    134 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.043848
    135 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.056227
    136 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.382918
    137 
    138 State: North Carolina
    139 	Votes: 16
    140 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    141 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    142 	Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    143 		Sample size: 659.650000
    144 		Mean R: 51.898734
    145 		Std of mean R: 1.945359
    146 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
    147 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.945359
    148 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607720
    149 	Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    150 		Sample size: 534.890000
    151 		Mean R: 53.932584
    152 		Std of mean R: 2.155214
    153 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
    154 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.155214
    155 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.708707
    156 	Poll: {PollId:86992 SampleSize:704 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Harris:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    157 		Sample size: 647.680000
    158 		Mean R: 54.347826
    159 		Std of mean R: 1.957229
    160 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.986839
    161 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.957229
    162 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.733994
    163 	Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    164 		Sample size: 410.640000
    165 		Mean R: 51.724138
    166 		Std of mean R: 2.465932
    167 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
    168 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.465932
    169 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591317
    170 	Poll: {PollId:87012 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    171 		Sample size: 861.720000
    172 		Mean R: 51.162791
    173 		Std of mean R: 1.702823
    174 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.752653
    175 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.702823
    176 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568862
    177 	Poll: {PollId:86883 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:42.6] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    178 		Sample size: 484.200000
    179 		Mean R: 52.788104
    180 		Std of mean R: 2.268722
    181 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.890451
    182 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.268722
    183 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649353
    184 	Poll: {PollId:86907 SampleSize:553 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    185 		Sample size: 447.930000
    186 		Mean R: 54.320988
    187 		Std of mean R: 2.353624
    188 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.966813
    189 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.353624
    190 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.721600
    191 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4046 PollResults:map[Biden:47.24035080349221 Trump:52.75964919650779] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    192 		Sample size: 4046.000000
    193 		Mean R: 52.759649
    194 		Std of mean R: 0.784864
    195 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999781
    196 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.784864
    197 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683335
    198 
    199 State: North Dakota
    200 	Votes: 3
    201 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    202 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    203 
    204 State: Wisconsin
    205 	Votes: 10
    206 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    207 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    208 	Poll: {PollId:86902 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:0 Stein:0 Trump:47 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    209 		Sample size: 571.020000
    210 		Mean R: 50.537634
    211 		Std of mean R: 2.092277
    212 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.601396
    213 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.092277
    214 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530213
    215 	Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    216 		Sample size: 429.440000
    217 		Mean R: 50.000000
    218 		Std of mean R: 2.412786
    219 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
    220 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.412786
    221 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
    222 	Poll: {PollId:86879 SampleSize:1457 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Stein:4 Trump:39 West:1] Date:2024-05-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    223 		Sample size: 1151.030000
    224 		Mean R: 49.367089
    225 		Std of mean R: 1.473642
    226 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.333784
    227 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.473642
    228 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461058
    229 	Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    230 		Sample size: 658.350000
    231 		Mean R: 51.578947
    232 		Std of mean R: 1.947713
    233 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
    234 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.947713
    235 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589890
    236 	Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    237 		Sample size: 452.700000
    238 		Mean R: 50.000000
    239 		Std of mean R: 2.349983
    240 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
    241 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.349983
    242 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
    243 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3262 PollResults:map[Biden:49.810577035070835 Trump:50.18942296492916] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    244 		Sample size: 3262.000000
    245 		Mean R: 50.189423
    246 		Std of mean R: 0.875437
    247 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.585652
    248 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875437
    249 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.512860
    250 
    251 State: Arizona
    252 	Votes: 11
    253 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
    254 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    255 	Poll: {PollId:86987 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:51 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    256 		Sample size: 755.250000
    257 		Mean R: 53.684211
    258 		Std of mean R: 1.814439
    259 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.978847
    260 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.814439
    261 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.705625
    262 	Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    263 		Sample size: 792.370000
    264 		Mean R: 54.430380
    265 		Std of mean R: 1.769271
    266 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
    267 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.769271
    268 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.743600
    269 	Poll: {PollId:86903 SampleSize:529 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    270 		Sample size: 454.940000
    271 		Mean R: 51.162791
    272 		Std of mean R: 2.343557
    273 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.690111
    274 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.343557
    275 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.562906
    276 	Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    277 		Sample size: 469.030000
    278 		Mean R: 50.561798
    279 		Std of mean R: 2.308566
    280 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
    281 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.308566
    282 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530636
    283 	Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    284 		Sample size: 1002.120000
    285 		Mean R: 52.380952
    286 		Std of mean R: 1.577674
    287 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
    288 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.577674
    289 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.641315
    290 	Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    291 		Sample size: 411.600000
    292 		Mean R: 52.380952
    293 		Std of mean R: 2.461724
    294 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
    295 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.461724
    296 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625170
    297 	Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    298 		Sample size: 499.989000
    299 		Mean R: 52.131547
    300 		Std of mean R: 2.234060
    301 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
    302 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.234060
    303 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.615871
    304 	Poll: {PollId:86897 SampleSize:626 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:1 Stein:2 Trump:49 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    305 		Sample size: 575.920000
    306 		Mean R: 53.260870
    307 		Std of mean R: 2.079042
    308 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.941612
    309 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.079042
    310 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.677471
    311 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4961 PollResults:map[Biden:47.30000832456701 Trump:52.699991675433] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    312 		Sample size: 4961.000000
    313 		Mean R: 52.699992
    314 		Std of mean R: 0.708845
    315 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999930
    316 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708845
    317 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.681875
    318 
    319 State: Iowa
    320 	Votes: 6
    321 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    322 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    323 
    324 State: Minnesota
    325 	Votes: 10
    326 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    327 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    328 	Poll: {PollId:86948 SampleSize:625 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    329 		Sample size: 537.500000
    330 		Mean R: 48.837209
    331 		Std of mean R: 2.156072
    332 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.294837
    333 		N republican wins: 0
    334 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    335 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.822739
    336 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380496
    337 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:537 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    338 		Sample size: 537.000000
    339 		Mean R: 48.837209
    340 		Std of mean R: 2.157076
    341 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.294923
    342 		N republican wins: 0
    343 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    344 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.823742
    345 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.380527
    346 
    347 State: New Jersey
    348 	Votes: 14
    349 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    350 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    351 
    352 State: Pennsylvania
    353 	Votes: 19
    354 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    355 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    356 	Poll: {PollId:86901 SampleSize:1023 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Mapstead:0 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    357 		Sample size: 951.390000
    358 		Mean R: 51.612903
    359 		Std of mean R: 1.620185
    360 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.840255
    361 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.620185
    362 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.596243
    363 	Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    364 		Sample size: 678.900000
    365 		Mean R: 51.612903
    366 		Std of mean R: 1.917967
    367 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
    368 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.917967
    369 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.592176
    370 	Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    371 		Sample size: 423.690000
    372 		Mean R: 48.275862
    373 		Std of mean R: 2.427658
    374 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
    375 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.427658
    376 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.408221
    377 	Poll: {PollId:86908 SampleSize:509 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    378 		Sample size: 427.560000
    379 		Mean R: 51.190476
    380 		Std of mean R: 2.417399
    381 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.688803
    382 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.417399
    383 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.563756
    384 	Poll: {PollId:86993 SampleSize:812 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:43 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:50 West:2] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    385 		Sample size: 779.520000
    386 		Mean R: 52.083333
    387 		Std of mean R: 1.789283
    388 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.877857
    389 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.789283
    390 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.620524
    391 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3261 PollResults:map[Biden:48.76359220621516 Trump:51.23640779378484] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    392 		Sample size: 3261.000000
    393 		Mean R: 51.236408
    394 		Std of mean R: 0.875310
    395 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.921104
    396 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.875310
    397 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.583338
    398 
    399 State: Rhode Island
    400 	Votes: 4
    401 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    402 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    403 	Poll: {PollId:87029 SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:40 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    404 		Sample size: 538.000000
    405 		Mean R: 40.000000
    406 		Std of mean R: 2.112100
    407 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
    408 		N republican wins: 0
    409 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    410 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
    411 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
    412 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:538 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:40] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    413 		Sample size: 538.000000
    414 		Mean R: 40.000000
    415 		Std of mean R: 2.112100
    416 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
    417 		N republican wins: 0
    418 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    419 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.778767
    420 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.004068
    421 
    422 State: Tennessee
    423 	Votes: 11
    424 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    425 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    426 	Poll: {PollId:86998 SampleSize:501 PollResults:map[Biden:29 Kennedy:8 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    427 		Sample size: 380.760000
    428 		Mean R: 61.842105
    429 		Std of mean R: 2.489480
    430 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
    431 		N republican wins: 6
    432 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    433 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.156147
    434 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997809
    435 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:380 PollResults:map[Biden:38.1578947368421 Trump:61.8421052631579] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    436 		Sample size: 380.000000
    437 		Mean R: 61.842105
    438 		Std of mean R: 2.491968
    439 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
    440 		N republican wins: 6
    441 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    442 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.158635
    443 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997797
    444 
    445 State: Wyoming
    446 	Votes: 3
    447 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    448 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    449 
    450 State: Delaware
    451 	Votes: 3
    452 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    453 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    454 
    455 State: Illinois
    456 	Votes: 19
    457 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    458 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    459 
    460 State: Colorado
    461 	Votes: 10
    462 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    463 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    464 
    465 State: District of Columbia
    466 	Votes: 3
    467 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    468 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    469 
    470 State: Nevada
    471 	Votes: 6
    472 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    473 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    474 	Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
    475 		Sample size: 426.000000
    476 		Mean R: 52.112676
    477 		Std of mean R: 2.420344
    478 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
    479 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.420344
    480 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.612068
    481 	Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    482 		Sample size: 449.964000
    483 		Mean R: 53.596288
    484 		Std of mean R: 2.351012
    485 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
    486 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.351012
    487 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.687658
    488 	Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    489 		Sample size: 407.160000
    490 		Mean R: 50.574713
    491 		Std of mean R: 2.477757
    492 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
    493 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.477757
    494 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.530631
    495 	Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    496 		Sample size: 431.460000
    497 		Mean R: 50.000000
    498 		Std of mean R: 2.407131
    499 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
    500 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.407131
    501 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
    502 	Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    503 		Sample size: 357.780000
    504 		Mean R: 55.056180
    505 		Std of mean R: 2.629844
    506 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
    507 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.629844
    508 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.746234
    509 	Poll: {PollId:86900 SampleSize:614 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:2 Stein:1 Trump:51 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    510 		Sample size: 546.460000
    511 		Mean R: 57.303371
    512 		Std of mean R: 2.115961
    513 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999721
    514 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115961
    515 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.847634
    516 	Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    517 		Sample size: 546.910000
    518 		Mean R: 51.648352
    519 		Std of mean R: 2.136859
    520 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
    521 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.136859
    522 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591328
    523 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3165 PollResults:map[Biden:47.01374152092375 Trump:52.98625847907625] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    524 		Sample size: 3165.000000
    525 		Mean R: 52.986258
    526 		Std of mean R: 0.887171
    527 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999619
    528 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.887171
    529 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.694010
    530 
    531 State: South Dakota
    532 	Votes: 3
    533 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    534 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    535 	Poll: {PollId:87023 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:31.4 Kennedy:11.2 Trump:50] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    536 		Sample size: 407.000000
    537 		Mean R: 61.425061
    538 		Std of mean R: 2.412838
    539 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
    540 		N republican wins: 6
    541 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    542 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
    543 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
    544 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:407 PollResults:map[Biden:38.57493857493858 Trump:61.42506142506142] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    545 		Sample size: 407.000000
    546 		Mean R: 61.425061
    547 		Std of mean R: 2.412838
    548 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
    549 		N republican wins: 6
    550 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    551 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.079505
    552 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.997450
    553 
    554 State: Arkansas
    555 	Votes: 6
    556 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    557 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    558 
    559 State: California
    560 	Votes: 54
    561 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    562 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    563 
    564 State: New Mexico
    565 	Votes: 5
    566 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    567 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    568 
    569 State: Utah
    570 	Votes: 6
    571 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    572 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    573 
    574 State: Georgia
    575 	Votes: 16
    576 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
    577 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    578 	Poll: {PollId:86989 SampleSize:795 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Harris:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-12 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    579 		Sample size: 739.350000
    580 		Mean R: 52.688172
    581 		Std of mean R: 1.836185
    582 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.928403
    583 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.836185
    584 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652924
    585 	Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    586 		Sample size: 390.100000
    587 		Mean R: 50.602410
    588 		Std of mean R: 2.531340
    589 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
    590 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.531340
    591 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531876
    592 	Poll: {PollId:86898 SampleSize:604 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:2 Stein:0 Trump:50 West:0] Date:2024-05-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    593 		Sample size: 549.640000
    594 		Mean R: 54.945055
    595 		Std of mean R: 2.122249
    596 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.990100
    597 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122249
    598 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.756256
    599 	Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    600 		Sample size: 546.000000
    601 		Mean R: 51.648352
    602 		Std of mean R: 2.138639
    603 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
    604 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
    605 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
    606 	Poll: {PollId:86905 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:5 Stein:0 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    607 		Sample size: 393.660000
    608 		Mean R: 53.086420
    609 		Std of mean R: 2.515245
    610 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.890105
    611 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.515245
    612 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659349
    613 	Poll: {PollId:86896 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:13 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
    614 		Sample size: 444.000000
    615 		Mean R: 55.405405
    616 		Std of mean R: 2.358988
    617 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.989030
    618 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.358988
    619 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768687
    620 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3062 PollResults:map[Biden:46.91274181699453 Trump:53.08725818300547] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    621 		Sample size: 3062.000000
    622 		Mean R: 53.087258
    623 		Std of mean R: 0.901858
    624 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999691
    625 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.901858
    626 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.699547
    627 
    628 State: Montana
    629 	Votes: 4
    630 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    631 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    632 
    633 State: Virginia
    634 	Votes: 13
    635 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    636 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    637 	Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    638 		Sample size: 554.580000
    639 		Mean R: 48.717949
    640 		Std of mean R: 2.122487
    641 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
    642 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.122487
    643 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428576
    644 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:554 PollResults:map[Biden:51.282051282051285 Trump:48.717948717948715] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    645 		Sample size: 554.000000
    646 		Mean R: 48.717949
    647 		Std of mean R: 2.123598
    648 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.273016
    649 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123598
    650 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428587
    651 
    652 State: Florida
    653 	Votes: 30
    654 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    655 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    656 	Poll: {PollId:86889 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:10 Trump:46] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
    657 		Sample size: 505.470000
    658 		Mean R: 55.421687
    659 		Std of mean R: 2.210823
    660 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.992903
    661 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.210823
    662 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.773939
    663 	Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    664 		Sample size: 1003.850000
    665 		Mean R: 57.647059
    666 		Std of mean R: 1.559538
    667 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    668 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.559538
    669 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.878151
    670 	Poll: {PollId:87004 SampleSize:486 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    671 		Sample size: 422.820000
    672 		Mean R: 55.172414
    673 		Std of mean R: 2.418555
    674 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
    675 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.418555
    676 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.757170
    677 	Poll: {PollId:86904 SampleSize:586 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    678 		Sample size: 498.100000
    679 		Mean R: 55.294118
    680 		Std of mean R: 2.227735
    681 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.991260
    682 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.227735
    683 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.768060
    684 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2430 PollResults:map[Biden:43.72860293633551 Trump:56.27139706366449] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    685 		Sample size: 2430.000000
    686 		Mean R: 56.271397
    687 		Std of mean R: 1.006291
    688 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    689 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.006291
    690 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.851789
    691 
    692 State: Maine
    693 	Votes: 4
    694 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
    695 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    696 
    697 State: New York
    698 	Votes: 28
    699 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    700 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    701 	Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    702 		Sample size: 1000.000000
    703 		Mean R: 44.800000
    704 		Std of mean R: 1.572565
    705 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
    706 		N republican wins: 0
    707 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    708 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.239231
    709 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.054212
    710 	Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    711 		Sample size: 1012.350000
    712 		Mean R: 44.705882
    713 		Std of mean R: 1.562631
    714 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
    715 		N republican wins: 0
    716 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    717 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.229298
    718 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.050565
    719 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    720 		Sample size: 2012.000000
    721 		Mean R: 44.752652
    722 		Std of mean R: 1.108539
    723 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
    724 		N republican wins: 0
    725 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    726 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.775206
    727 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.029326
    728 
    729 State: Oklahoma
    730 	Votes: 7
    731 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    732 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    733 
    734 State: Oregon
    735 	Votes: 8
    736 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    737 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    738 
    739 State: Washington
    740 	Votes: 12
    741 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    742 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    743 	Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    744 		Sample size: 578.100000
    745 		Mean R: 41.489362
    746 		Std of mean R: 2.049200
    747 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
    748 		N republican wins: 0
    749 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    750 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.715866
    751 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.011000
    752 	Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    753 		Sample size: 306.280000
    754 		Mean R: 44.736842
    755 		Std of mean R: 2.841131
    756 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
    757 		N republican wins: 0
    758 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    759 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.507797
    760 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.121491
    761 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    762 		Sample size: 884.000000
    763 		Mean R: 42.614035
    764 		Std of mean R: 1.663233
    765 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
    766 		N republican wins: 0
    767 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    768 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.329899
    769 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.013275
    770 
    771 State: West Virginia
    772 	Votes: 4
    773 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    774 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    775 
    776 State: Connecticut
    777 	Votes: 7
    778 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    779 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    780 
    781 State: Maryland
    782 	Votes: 10
    783 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    784 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    785 	Poll: {PollId:86882 SampleSize:1115 PollResults:map[Biden:49.9 Kennedy:5.8 Stein:1 Trump:32.5 West:3] Date:2024-05-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    786 		Sample size: 918.760000
    787 		Mean R: 39.441748
    788 		Std of mean R: 1.612366
    789 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    790 		N republican wins: 0
    791 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    792 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.279033
    793 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000641
    794 	Poll: {PollId:86881 SampleSize:719 PollResults:map[Biden:60 Trump:32] Date:2024-05-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
    795 		Sample size: 661.480000
    796 		Mean R: 34.782609
    797 		Std of mean R: 1.851844
    798 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    799 		N republican wins: 0
    800 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    801 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.518511
    802 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000008
    803 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1580 PollResults:map[Biden:62.50854300612565 Trump:37.49145699387435] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    804 		Sample size: 1580.000000
    805 		Mean R: 37.491457
    806 		Std of mean R: 1.217888
    807 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    808 		N republican wins: 0
    809 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    810 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.884555
    811 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000007
    812 
    813 State: Hawaii
    814 	Votes: 4
    815 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    816 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    817 
    818 State: Idaho
    819 	Votes: 4
    820 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    821 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    822 
    823 State: Indiana
    824 	Votes: 11
    825 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    826 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    827 
    828 State: Louisiana
    829 	Votes: 8
    830 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    831 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    832 
    833 State: Missouri
    834 	Votes: 10
    835 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    836 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    837 
    838 State: Nebraska
    839 	Votes: 5
    840 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
    841 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    842 
    843 State: Alabama
    844 	Votes: 9
    845 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    846 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    847 
    848 State: Alaska
    849 	Votes: 3
    850 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    851 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    852 
    853 State: Ohio
    854 	Votes: 17
    855 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    856 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    857 
    858 State: South Carolina
    859 	Votes: 9
    860 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    861 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    862 
    863 [ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
    864 [ 132,  133):  0.00% (0%)
    865 [ 133,  134):  0.00% (0%)
    866 [ 134,  135):  0.00% (0%)
    867 [ 135,  136):  0.00% (0%)
    868 [ 136,  137):  0.00% (0%)
    869 [ 137,  138):  0.00% (0%)
    870 [ 138,  139):  0.00% (0%)
    871 [ 139,  140):  0.00% (0%)
    872 [ 140,  141):  0.00% (0%)
    873 [ 141,  142):  0.00% (0%)
    874 [ 142,  143):  0.00% (0%)
    875 [ 143,  144):  0.00% (0%)
    876 [ 144,  145):  0.00% (0%)
    877 [ 145,  146):  0.00% (0%)
    878 [ 146,  147):  0.00% (0%)
    879 [ 147,  148):  0.00% (0%)
    880 [ 148,  149):  0.00% (0%)
    881 [ 149,  150):  0.00% (0%)
    882 [ 150,  151):  0.00% (0%)
    883 [ 151,  152):  0.00% (0%)
    884 [ 152,  153):  0.00% (0%)
    885 [ 153,  154):  0.00% (0%)
    886 [ 154,  155):  0.00% (0%)
    887 [ 155,  156):  0.00% (0%)
    888 [ 156,  157):  0.00% (0%)
    889 [ 157,  158):  0.00% (0%)
    890 [ 158,  159):  0.00% (0%)
    891 [ 159,  160):  0.00% (0%)
    892 [ 160,  161):  0.00% (0%)
    893 [ 161,  162):  0.00% (0%)
    894 [ 162,  163):  0.00% (0%)
    895 [ 163,  164):  0.00% (0%)
    896 [ 164,  165):  0.00% (0%)
    897 [ 165,  166):  0.00% (0%)
    898 [ 166,  167):  0.00% (0%)
    899 [ 167,  168):  0.00% (0%)
    900 [ 168,  169):  0.00% (0%)
    901 [ 169,  170):  0.00% (0%)
    902 [ 170,  171):  0.00% (0%)
    903 [ 171,  172):  0.00% (0%)
    904 [ 172,  173):  0.00% (0%)
    905 [ 173,  174):  0.00% (0%)
    906 [ 174,  175):  0.00% (0%)
    907 [ 175,  176):  0.00% (0%)
    908 [ 176,  177):  0.00% (0%)
    909 [ 177,  178):  0.00% (0%)
    910 [ 178,  179):  0.00% (0%)
    911 [ 179,  180):  0.00% (0%)
    912 [ 180,  181):  0.00% (0%)
    913 [ 181,  182):  0.01% (0%)
    914 [ 182,  183):  0.01% (0%)
    915 [ 183,  184):  0.01% (0%)
    916 [ 184,  185):  0.00% (0%)
    917 [ 185,  186):  0.00% (0%)
    918 [ 186,  187):  0.01% (0%)
    919 [ 187,  188):  0.01% (0%)
    920 [ 188,  189):  0.02% (0%)
    921 [ 189,  190):  0.01% (0%)
    922 [ 190,  191):  0.01% (0%)
    923 [ 191,  192):  0.01% (0%)
    924 [ 192,  193): █ 0.02% (0%)
    925 [ 193,  194): █ 0.02% (0%)
    926 [ 194,  195): █ 0.02% (0%)
    927 [ 195,  196):  0.02% (0%)
    928 [ 196,  197): █ 0.02% (0%)
    929 [ 197,  198): █ 0.03% (0%)
    930 [ 198,  199): ██ 0.04% (0%)
    931 [ 199,  200): ██ 0.04% (0%)
    932 [ 200,  201): ██ 0.03% (0%)
    933 [ 201,  202): ██ 0.04% (0%)
    934 [ 202,  203): ██ 0.05% (0%)
    935 [ 203,  204): ███ 0.06% (1%)
    936 [ 204,  205): ███ 0.07% (1%)
    937 [ 205,  206): ████ 0.07% (1%)
    938 [ 206,  207): ███ 0.06% (1%)
    939 [ 207,  208): ████ 0.07% (1%)
    940 [ 208,  209): █████ 0.09% (1%)
    941 [ 209,  210): ██████ 0.10% (1%)
    942 [ 210,  211): █████ 0.09% (1%)
    943 [ 211,  212): ██████ 0.10% (1%)
    944 [ 212,  213): ███████ 0.12% (1%)
    945 [ 213,  214): ███████ 0.13% (1%)
    946 [ 214,  215): ████████ 0.14% (2%)
    947 [ 215,  216): █████████ 0.16% (2%)
    948 [ 216,  217): █████████ 0.15% (2%)
    949 [ 217,  218): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
    950 [ 218,  219): ████████████ 0.20% (2%)
    951 [ 219,  220): ████████████ 0.20% (2%)
    952 [ 220,  221): ████████████ 0.20% (3%)
    953 [ 221,  222): █████████████ 0.22% (3%)
    954 [ 222,  223): ███████████████ 0.25% (3%)
    955 [ 223,  224): ████████████████ 0.27% (3%)
    956 [ 224,  225): █████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
    957 [ 225,  226): ██████████████████ 0.30% (4%)
    958 [ 226,  227): ██████████████████ 0.30% (4%)
    959 [ 227,  228): ████████████████████ 0.33% (5%)
    960 [ 228,  229): ████████████████████████ 0.41% (5%)
    961 [ 229,  230): ██████████████████████████ 0.43% (5%)
    962 [ 230,  231): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (6%)
    963 [ 231,  232): ████████████████████████ 0.40% (6%)
    964 [ 232,  233): ████████████████████████████ 0.46% (7%)
    965 [ 233,  234): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (7%)
    966 [ 234,  235): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%)
    967 [ 235,  236): █████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (8%)
    968 [ 236,  237): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (9%)
    969 [ 237,  238): ████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (9%)
    970 [ 238,  239): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.66% (10%)
    971 [ 239,  240): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (11%)
    972 [ 240,  241): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.66% (11%)
    973 [ 241,  242): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (12%)
    974 [ 242,  243): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (13%)
    975 [ 243,  244): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (13%)
    976 [ 244,  245): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (14%)
    977 [ 245,  246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (15%)
    978 [ 246,  247): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (16%)
    979 [ 247,  248): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (17%)
    980 [ 248,  249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (18%)
    981 [ 249,  250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (19%)
    982 [ 250,  251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.07% (20%)
    983 [ 251,  252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (21%)
    984 [ 252,  253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (22%)
    985 [ 253,  254): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.04% (23%)
    986 [ 254,  255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (24%)
    987 [ 255,  256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%)
    988 [ 256,  257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (27%)
    989 [ 257,  258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (28%)
    990 [ 258,  259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.25% (29%)
    991 [ 259,  260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (30%)
    992 [ 260,  261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (32%)
    993 [ 261,  262): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.41% (33%)
    994 [ 262,  263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (35%)
    995 [ 263,  264): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (36%)
    996 [ 264,  265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (37%)
    997 [ 265,  266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (39%)
    998 [ 266,  267): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (40%)
    999 [ 267,  268): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (42%)
   1000 [ 268,  269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (43%)
   1001 [ 269,  270): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (45%)
   1002 [ 270,  271): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (46%)
   1003 [ 271,  272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (48%)
   1004 [ 272,  273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (50%)
   1005 [ 273,  274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (51%)
   1006 [ 274,  275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (53%)
   1007 [ 275,  276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (54%)
   1008 [ 276,  277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (56%)
   1009 [ 277,  278): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (57%)
   1010 [ 278,  279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (59%)
   1011 [ 279,  280): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (60%)
   1012 [ 280,  281): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (62%)
   1013 [ 281,  282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (64%)
   1014 [ 282,  283): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (65%)
   1015 [ 283,  284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (66%)
   1016 [ 284,  285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.51% (68%)
   1017 [ 285,  286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (69%)
   1018 [ 286,  287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (71%)
   1019 [ 287,  288): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (72%)
   1020 [ 288,  289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (73%)
   1021 [ 289,  290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (75%)
   1022 [ 290,  291): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (76%)
   1023 [ 291,  292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (78%)
   1024 [ 292,  293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%)
   1025 [ 293,  294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (80%)
   1026 [ 294,  295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (81%)
   1027 [ 295,  296): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (82%)
   1028 [ 296,  297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.10% (83%)
   1029 [ 297,  298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (84%)
   1030 [ 298,  299): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (85%)
   1031 [ 299,  300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (86%)
   1032 [ 300,  301): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (87%)
   1033 [ 301,  302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (88%)
   1034 [ 302,  303): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (89%)
   1035 [ 303,  304): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%)
   1036 [ 304,  305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (90%)
   1037 [ 305,  306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (91%)
   1038 [ 306,  307): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%)
   1039 [ 307,  308): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (93%)
   1040 [ 308,  309): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (93%)
   1041 [ 309,  310): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (94%)
   1042 [ 310,  311): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (94%)
   1043 [ 311,  312): ████████████████████████████ 0.46% (95%)
   1044 [ 312,  313): ███████████████████████████ 0.45% (95%)
   1045 [ 313,  314): ███████████████████████████ 0.45% (96%)
   1046 [ 314,  315): █████████████████████████ 0.42% (96%)
   1047 [ 315,  316): █████████████████████ 0.35% (96%)
   1048 [ 316,  317): █████████████████████ 0.35% (97%)
   1049 [ 317,  318): ████████████████ 0.27% (97%)
   1050 [ 318,  319): █████████████████ 0.29% (97%)
   1051 [ 319,  320): ███████████████████ 0.32% (98%)
   1052 [ 320,  321): ███████████████ 0.26% (98%)
   1053 [ 321,  322): ██████████ 0.17% (98%)
   1054 [ 322,  323): ████████████ 0.20% (98%)
   1055 [ 323,  324): █████████████ 0.22% (98%)
   1056 [ 324,  325): ███████████ 0.20% (99%)
   1057 [ 325,  326): █████████ 0.16% (99%)
   1058 [ 326,  327): ███████ 0.12% (99%)
   1059 [ 327,  328): █████ 0.09% (99%)
   1060 [ 328,  329): ██████ 0.11% (99%)
   1061 [ 329,  330): █████████ 0.15% (99%)
   1062 [ 330,  331): █████ 0.09% (99%)
   1063 [ 331,  332): ███ 0.05% (99%)
   1064 [ 332,  333): ███ 0.05% (99%)
   1065 [ 333,  334): ████ 0.07% (100%)
   1066 [ 334,  335): ████ 0.07% (100%)
   1067 [ 335,  336): ███ 0.06% (100%)
   1068 [ 336,  337): █ 0.03% (100%)
   1069 [ 337,  338): █ 0.02% (100%)
   1070 [ 338,  339): ██ 0.03% (100%)
   1071 [ 339,  340): ██ 0.04% (100%)
   1072 [ 340,  341): █ 0.03% (100%)
   1073 [ 341,  342):  0.01% (100%)
   1074 [ 342,  343):  0.01% (100%)
   1075 [ 343,  344):  0.01% (100%)
   1076 [ 344,  345):  0.02% (100%)
   1077 [ 345,  346):  0.01% (100%)
   1078 [ 346,  347):  0.01% (100%)
   1079 [ 347,  348):  0.01% (100%)
   1080 [ 348,  349):  0.01% (100%)
   1081 [ 349,  350):  0.01% (100%)
   1082 [ 350,  351):  0.01% (100%)
   1083 [ 351,  352):  0.01% (100%)
   1084 [ 352,  353):  0.01% (100%)
   1085 [ 353,  354):  0.00% (100%)
   1086 [ 354,  355):  0.00% (100%)
   1087 [ 355,  356):  0.00% (100%)
   1088 [ 356,  357):  0.00% (100%)
   1089 [ 357,  358):  0.00% (100%)
   1090 [ 358,  359):  0.00% (100%)
   1091 [ 359,  360):  0.00% (100%)
   1092 [ 360,  361):  0.00% (100%)
   1093 [ 361,  362):  0.00% (100%)
   1094 [ 362,  363):  0.00% (100%)
   1095 [ 363,  364):  0.00% (100%)
   1096 [ 364,  365):  0.00% (100%)
   1097 [ 365,  366):  0.00% (100%)
   1098 [ 366,  367):  0.00% (100%)
   1099 [ 367,  368):  0.00% (100%)
   1100 [ 368,  369):  0.00% (100%)
   1101 [ 369,  370):  0.00% (100%)
   1102 [ 370,  371):  0.00% (100%)
   1103 [ 371,  372):  0.00% (100%)
   1104 [ 372,  373):  0.00% (100%)
   1105 [ 373,  374):  0.00% (100%)
   1106 [ 374,  375):  0.00% (100%)
   1107 [ 375,  376):  0.00% (100%)
   1108 [ 376,  377):  0.00% (100%)
   1109 [ 377,  378):  0.00% (100%)
   1110 [ 378,  379):  0.00% (100%)
   1111 [ 379,  380):  0.00% (100%)
   1112 [ 380,  381):  0.00% (100%)
   1113 [ 381,  382):  0.00% (100%)
   1114 [ 382,  383):  0.00% (100%)
   1115 [ 383,  384):  0.00% (100%)
   1116 [ 384,  385):  0.00% (100%)
   1117 [ 385,  386):  0.00% (100%)
   1118 [ 386,  387):  0.00% (100%)
   1119 [ 387,  388):  0.00% (100%)
   1120 [ 388,  389):  0.00% (100%)
   1121 [ 389,  390):  0.00% (100%)
   1122 [ 390,  391):  0.00% (100%)
   1123 [ 391,  392):  0.00% (100%)
   1124 [ 392,  393):  0.00% (100%)
   1125 [ 393,  394):  0.00% (100%)
   1126 [ 394,  395):  0.00% (100%)
   1127 [ 395,  396):  0.00% (100%)
   1128 [ 396,  397):  0.00% (100%)
   1129 [ 397,  398):  0.00% (100%)
   1130 [ 398,  399):  0.00% (100%)
   1131 [ 399,  400):  0.00% (100%)
   1132 
   1133 % republicans: 0.551070