squiggle.c

commit b76a630d5893d6d64cc7fb929050c03e6cc20acc
parent 8b32d2d9b6574e9506fe61c94149ca3a1e6391ac
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.sempere@protonmail.com>
Date:   Sun, 23 Jul 2023 23:54:15 +0200

formatting pass nuclear probabilities

Diffstat:
M
examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c
 | 
55
+++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------------------

1 file changed, 25 insertions(+), 30 deletions(-)
diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c
@@ -3,37 +3,33 @@
 #include <stdio.h>
 #include <stdlib.h>
 
-
-
-double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed){
-	double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
-	double	current_year = 2023;
-	double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year-first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed);
-
-	double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
-	// I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
-	// 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively:
-	// https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere
-	double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed);
-	// 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool
-	double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95%
-
-	double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * 
-		london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * 
-		informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * 
-		proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
-	return probability_of_dying;
+double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed)
+{
+    double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
+    double current_year = 2023;
+    double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year - first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed);
+
+    double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
+    // I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
+    // 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively:
+    // https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere
+    double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed);
+    // 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool
+    double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95%
+
+    double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year * london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage * informed_actor_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
+    return probability_of_dying;
 }
 
-double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed){
-	double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month=sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99,seed); // .0001 to .003
-	double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5
-	double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6 
-	double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95;
+double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed)
+{
+    double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month = sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99, seed); // .0001 to .003
+    double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5
+    double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6
+    double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95;
 
-	double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month*london_hit_conditional*informed_actors_not_able_to_escape*proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
-	return probability_of_dying;
-  
+    double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month * london_hit_conditional * informed_actors_not_able_to_escape * proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
+    return probability_of_dying;
 }
 
 int main()
@@ -42,6 +38,5 @@ int main()
     uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
     *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
 
-		
-		free(seed);
+    free(seed);
 }