commit 8b32d2d9b6574e9506fe61c94149ca3a1e6391ac
parent f8f8bc8de00ea8d718b550740c2a31038efde783
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.sempere@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 23 Jul 2023 23:53:57 +0200
start adding nuclear probabilities
Diffstat:
6 files changed, 173 insertions(+), 0 deletions(-)
diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example
Binary files differ.
diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c b/examples/08_nuclear_war/example.c
@@ -0,0 +1,47 @@
+#include "../../squiggle.h"
+#include <stdint.h>
+#include <stdio.h>
+#include <stdlib.h>
+
+
+
+double probability_of_dying_nuno(uint64_t* seed){
+ double first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons = 1953;
+ double current_year = 2023;
+ double laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year = sample_beta(current_year-first_year_russian_nuclear_weapons, 0, seed);
+
+ double london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage = sample_beta(7.67, 69.65, seed);
+ // I.e., a beta distribution with a range of 0.05 to 0.16 into: https://nunosempere.com/blog/2023/03/15/fit-beta/
+ // 0.05 were my estimate and Samotsvety's estimate in March 2022, respectively:
+ // https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/KRFXjCqqfGQAYirm5/samotsvety-nuclear-risk-forecasts-march-2022#Nu_o_Sempere
+ double informed_actor_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(3.26212166586967, 3.26228162008564, seed);
+ // 0.2 to 0.8, i.e., 20% to 80%, again using the previous tool
+ double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(10.00, 2.45, seed); // 60% to 95%
+
+ double probability_of_dying = laplace_probability_nuclear_exchange_next_year *
+ london_hit_conditional_on_russia_nuclear_weapon_usage *
+ informed_actor_not_able_to_escape *
+ proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
+ return probability_of_dying;
+}
+
+double probability_of_dying_eli(uint64_t* seed){
+ double russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month=sample_beta(1.30, 1182.99,seed); // .0001 to .003
+ double london_hit_conditional = sample_beta(3.47, 8.97, seed); // 0.1 to 0.5
+ double informed_actors_not_able_to_escape = sample_beta(2.73, 5.67, seed); // .1 to .6
+ double proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london = sample_beta(3.00, 1.46, seed); // 0.3 to 0.95;
+
+ double probability_of_dying = russia_nato_nuclear_exchange_in_next_month*london_hit_conditional*informed_actors_not_able_to_escape*proportion_which_die_if_bomb_drops_in_london;
+ return probability_of_dying;
+
+}
+
+int main()
+{
+ // set randomness seed
+ uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
+ *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
+
+
+ free(seed);
+}
diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/makefile b/examples/08_nuclear_war/makefile
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+# Interface:
+# make
+# make build
+# make format
+# make run
+
+# Compiler
+CC=gcc
+# CC=tcc # <= faster compilation
+
+# Main file
+SRC=example.c ../../squiggle.c
+OUTPUT=example
+
+## Dependencies
+MATH=-lm
+
+## Flags
+DEBUG= #'-g'
+STANDARD=-std=c99
+WARNINGS=-Wall
+OPTIMIZED=-O3 #-Ofast
+# OPENMP=-fopenmp
+
+## Formatter
+STYLE_BLUEPRINT=webkit
+FORMATTER=clang-format -i -style=$(STYLE_BLUEPRINT)
+
+## make build
+build: $(SRC)
+ $(CC) $(OPTIMIZED) $(DEBUG) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+
+format: $(SRC)
+ $(FORMATTER) $(SRC)
+
+run: $(SRC) $(OUTPUT)
+ OMP_NUM_THREADS=1 ./$(OUTPUT) && echo
+
+time-linux:
+ @echo "Requires /bin/time, found on GNU/Linux systems" && echo
+
+ @echo "Running 100x and taking avg time $(OUTPUT)"
+ @t=$$(/usr/bin/time -f "%e" -p bash -c 'for i in {1..100}; do $(OUTPUT); done' 2>&1 >/dev/null | grep real | awk '{print $$2}' ); echo "scale=2; 1000 * $$t / 100" | bc | sed "s|^|Time using 1 thread: |" | sed 's|$$|ms|' && echo
+
+## Profiling
+
+profile-linux:
+ echo "Requires perf, which depends on the kernel version, and might be in linux-tools package or similar"
+ echo "Must be run as sudo"
+ $(CC) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+ sudo perf record ./$(OUTPUT)
+ sudo perf report
+ rm perf.data
diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example
Binary files differ.
diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example.c b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/example.c
@@ -0,0 +1,20 @@
+#include "../../../squiggle.h"
+#include <stdint.h>
+#include <stdio.h>
+#include <stdlib.h>
+
+int main()
+{
+ // set randomness seed
+ uint64_t* seed = malloc(sizeof(uint64_t));
+ *seed = 1000; // xorshift can't start with 0
+ double firstYearRussianNuclearWeapons = 1953;
+ double currentYear = 2023;
+
+ for(int i=0; i<10; i++){
+ double laplace_beta = sample_beta(currentYear-firstYearRussianNuclearWeapons + 1, 1, seed);
+ printf("%f\n", laplace_beta);
+ }
+
+ free(seed);
+}
diff --git a/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/makefile b/examples/08_nuclear_war/scratchpad/makefile
@@ -0,0 +1,53 @@
+# Interface:
+# make
+# make build
+# make format
+# make run
+
+# Compiler
+CC=gcc
+# CC=tcc # <= faster compilation
+
+# Main file
+SRC=example.c ../../../squiggle.c
+OUTPUT=example
+
+## Dependencies
+MATH=-lm
+
+## Flags
+DEBUG= #'-g'
+STANDARD=-std=c99
+WARNINGS=-Wall
+OPTIMIZED=-O3 #-Ofast
+# OPENMP=-fopenmp
+
+## Formatter
+STYLE_BLUEPRINT=webkit
+FORMATTER=clang-format -i -style=$(STYLE_BLUEPRINT)
+
+## make build
+build: $(SRC)
+ $(CC) $(OPTIMIZED) $(DEBUG) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+
+format: $(SRC)
+ $(FORMATTER) $(SRC)
+
+run: $(SRC) $(OUTPUT)
+ OMP_NUM_THREADS=1 ./$(OUTPUT) && echo
+
+time-linux:
+ @echo "Requires /bin/time, found on GNU/Linux systems" && echo
+
+ @echo "Running 100x and taking avg time $(OUTPUT)"
+ @t=$$(/usr/bin/time -f "%e" -p bash -c 'for i in {1..100}; do $(OUTPUT); done' 2>&1 >/dev/null | grep real | awk '{print $$2}' ); echo "scale=2; 1000 * $$t / 100" | bc | sed "s|^|Time using 1 thread: |" | sed 's|$$|ms|' && echo
+
+## Profiling
+
+profile-linux:
+ echo "Requires perf, which depends on the kernel version, and might be in linux-tools package or similar"
+ echo "Must be run as sudo"
+ $(CC) $(SRC) $(MATH) -o $(OUTPUT)
+ sudo perf record ./$(OUTPUT)
+ sudo perf report
+ rm perf.data
