commit dec133e6e0fbcad02ce5f240fea4788e1ffadb6d
parent 3c4d6ba372a7caf62446c486cabebb64f507944a
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 5 May 2024 23:04:30 +0200
tweak weight polls
Diffstat:
2 files changed, 4 insertions(+), 4 deletions(-)
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -71,7 +71,7 @@ What's happening here is that:
- For the polls that do exist, Trump polling very well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina
- Trump is also polling decently in Minessota; Biden is polling well in Colorado
- In part, this is because Biden is just [unpopular](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/), or at least more than [Trump](https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/favorability/donald-trump/)
-- In part though, polls currently also ask about the third party vote: for Robert F. Kennedy, Kayne West and Jill Stein (Green party).
+- In part though, polls currently also ask about the third party vote: for Robert F. Kennedy, Cornel West and Jill Stein (Green party).
- In a normal democracy, like in Spain, a protest party could amass some electors, and use them as bargaining chips to govern together with one of the other major parties. For instance, this is what happened with Ciudadanos in Spain. Perhaps third parties performing strongly could conceivably, create pressure to reform the US electoral system.
- In the US, with the system as currently exists, these votes seem to favour Trump.
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -250,9 +250,9 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
// p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
- // weight_polls := 0.75
- // p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
- p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls
+ weight_polls := 0.75
+ p_republican_win = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
+ // p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls
}
if r.Float64() < p_republican_win {
