commit 3c4d6ba372a7caf62446c486cabebb64f507944a
parent cbda7b1e5c1bbd68ae7263ffc59be4baedca6fa6
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 21:46:58 -0400
factor out nominee names; rerun
Diffstat:
| M | main.go | | | 30 | ++++++++++++++++-------------- |
| D | output | | | 915 | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| M | output.txt | | | 1345 | +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------------------------ |
3 files changed, 751 insertions(+), 1539 deletions(-)
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -34,6 +34,8 @@ type Poll struct {
/* Globals */
var r = rand.New(rand.NewPCG(uint64(100), uint64(2224)))
+var dem_nominee_name = "Biden"
+var rep_nominee_name = "Trump"
/* Sampling helper functions */
func getNormalCDF(x float64, mean float64, std float64) float64 {
@@ -51,8 +53,8 @@ func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPollShare(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size f
}
func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll, pretty_print bool) float64 {
- biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
- trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
+ biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+ trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
}
@@ -86,8 +88,8 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett
}
// Get the uncertainty from the poll
- biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
- trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
+ biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+ trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
}
@@ -160,8 +162,8 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
num_biden_votes := 0.0
num_trump_votes := 0.0
for _, poll := range state.Polls {
- biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
- trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
+ biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+ trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
}
@@ -171,8 +173,8 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
- aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
- aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll)
_ = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, true)
@@ -230,8 +232,8 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
num_biden_votes := 0.0
num_trump_votes := 0.0
for _, poll := range state.Polls {
- biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
- trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
+ biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name]
+ trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name]
if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
}
@@ -242,8 +244,8 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
- aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
- aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults[dem_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults[rep_nominee_name] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
// p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
@@ -449,9 +451,9 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
has_biden := false
has_trump := false
for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults {
- if candidate_name == "Biden" {
+ if candidate_name == dem_nominee_name {
has_biden = true
- } else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
+ } else if candidate_name == rep_nominee_name {
has_trump = true
}
}
diff --git a/output b/output
@@ -1,915 +0,0 @@
-
-
-State: Colorado
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 556.160000
- Mean R: 44.318182
- Std of mean R: 2.106434
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106434
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.211991
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 556.000000
- Mean R: 44.318182
- Std of mean R: 2.106737
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106737
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.212001
-
-State: Florida
- Votes: 30
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
- Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 743.750000
- Mean R: 54.117647
- Std of mean R: 1.827169
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.827169
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.726788
- Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 838.000000
- Mean R: 58.711217
- Std of mean R: 1.700805
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.700805
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.903204
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1581.000000
- Mean R: 56.551288
- Std of mean R: 1.246648
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.246648
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.852858
-
-State: New Hampshire
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
-
-State: Pennsylvania
- Votes: 19
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 882.960000
- Mean R: 51.282051
- Std of mean R: 1.682119
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.682119
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.576075
- Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 353.420000
- Mean R: 48.780488
- Std of mean R: 2.658859
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.658859
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.436744
- Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 546.000000
- Mean R: 51.648352
- Std of mean R: 2.138639
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
- Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 680.000000
- Mean R: 48.235294
- Std of mean R: 1.916218
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.916218
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.399302
- Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 658.750000
- Mean R: 51.764706
- Std of mean R: 1.946879
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.946879
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.600263
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3121.000000
- Mean R: 50.500940
- Std of mean R: 0.894955
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.894955
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.533860
-
-State: Alabama
- Votes: 9
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: California
- Votes: 54
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86635 SampleSize:1084 PollResults:map[Biden:54 Trump:31] Date:2024-03-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 921.400000
- Mean R: 36.470588
- Std of mean R: 1.585750
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252417
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 921.000000
- Mean R: 36.470588
- Std of mean R: 1.586094
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252761
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
-
-State: Hawaii
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Indiana
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
-
-State: Iowa
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
-
-State: Massachusetts
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 741.480000
- Mean R: 37.837838
- Std of mean R: 1.781052
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.447718
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 741.000000
- Mean R: 37.837838
- Std of mean R: 1.781628
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.448295
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
-
-State: Ohio
- Votes: 17
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
-
-State: Virginia
- Votes: 13
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
-
-State: Wisconsin
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 830.000000
- Mean R: 52.289157
- Std of mean R: 1.733705
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.733705
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633055
- Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 50.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.128141
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.128141
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1382.000000
- Mean R: 51.374819
- Std of mean R: 1.344472
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.344472
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.585777
-
-State: Idaho
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Kentucky
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Louisiana
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Mississippi
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: New Mexico
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
-
-State: West Virginia
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Connecticut
- Votes: 7
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: New Jersey
- Votes: 14
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 768.000000
- Mean R: 46.614583
- Std of mean R: 1.800079
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 768.000000
- Mean R: 46.614583
- Std of mean R: 1.800079
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
-
-State: North Carolina
- Votes: 16
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 493.800000
- Mean R: 52.612394
- Std of mean R: 2.246989
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.246989
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640756
- Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 883.920000
- Mean R: 51.724138
- Std of mean R: 1.680758
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.680758
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.601826
- Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1106.790000
- Mean R: 51.898734
- Std of mean R: 1.501841
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.501841
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.614868
- Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 526.440000
- Mean R: 52.439024
- Std of mean R: 2.176598
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.176598
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633018
- Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 53.260870
- Std of mean R: 2.123611
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123611
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676436
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3562.000000
- Mean R: 52.245190
- Std of mean R: 0.836922
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.836922
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649753
-
-State: Utah
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Oregon
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Alaska
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Delaware
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Michigan
- Votes: 15
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 852.000000
- Mean R: 52.347418
- Std of mean R: 1.711083
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.711083
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.636749
- Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 558.000000
- Mean R: 51.612903
- Std of mean R: 2.115567
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115567
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589661
- Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 811.780000
- Mean R: 54.054054
- Std of mean R: 1.749116
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.749116
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725973
- Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 492.800000
- Mean R: 51.250000
- Std of mean R: 2.251640
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.251640
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568429
- Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 587.052000
- Mean R: 51.932367
- Std of mean R: 2.062088
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.062088
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607814
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3301 PollResults:map[Biden:47.59470467938281 Trump:52.4052953206172] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3301.000000
- Mean R: 52.405295
- Std of mean R: 0.869249
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.997172
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.869249
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659028
-
-State: Minnesota
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 522.880000
- Mean R: 48.837209
- Std of mean R: 2.186007
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.852674
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381397
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 522.000000
- Mean R: 48.837209
- Std of mean R: 2.187849
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.854515
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381452
-
-State: Missouri
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: New York
- Votes: 28
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: North Dakota
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Rhode Island
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Washington
- Votes: 12
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
- Sample size: 510.000000
- Mean R: 43.529412
- Std of mean R: 2.195419
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 510.000000
- Mean R: 43.529412
- Std of mean R: 2.195419
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
-
-State: Georgia
- Votes: 16
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 646.000000
- Mean R: 51.764706
- Std of mean R: 1.965998
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.965998
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599994
- Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 522.000000
- Mean R: 50.574713
- Std of mean R: 2.188296
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.188296
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531862
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1168.000000
- Mean R: 51.232877
- Std of mean R: 1.462570
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.462570
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575648
-
-State: Oklahoma
- Votes: 7
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: South Carolina
- Votes: 9
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: South Dakota
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Wyoming
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Arizona
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 438.600000
- Mean R: 51.764706
- Std of mean R: 2.385970
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.385970
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.594419
- Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
- Sample size: 420.000000
- Mean R: 52.857143
- Std of mean R: 2.435764
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.435764
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649601
- Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 377.250000
- Mean R: 52.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.572217
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.572217
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604158
- Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 534.000000
- Mean R: 52.808989
- Std of mean R: 2.160294
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.160294
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652582
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1769.000000
- Mean R: 52.389186
- Std of mean R: 1.187435
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.187435
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.650302
-
-State: Arkansas
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Kansas
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Maryland
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Nebraska
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
-
-State: Nevada
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 52.173913
- Std of mean R: 2.126129
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 52.173913
- Std of mean R: 2.126129
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
-
-State: Tennessee
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86629 SampleSize:974 PollResults:map[Biden:25 Kennedy:16 Trump:48] Date:2024-04-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 711.020000
- Mean R: 65.753425
- Std of mean R: 1.779618
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446285
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 711.000000
- Mean R: 65.753425
- Std of mean R: 1.779643
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446310
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
-
-State: District of Columbia
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Illinois
- Votes: 19
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Maine
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Montana
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Texas
- Votes: 40
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 938.280000
- Mean R: 57.142857
- Std of mean R: 1.615572
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.282239
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.985230
- Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 929.000000
- Mean R: 54.574812
- Std of mean R: 1.633566
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.300232
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.917158
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1867.000000
- Mean R: 55.865216
- Std of mean R: 1.149183
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- N republican wins: 6
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.815849
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.981371
-
-State: Vermont
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
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-[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%)
-[ 193, 194): â–ˆ 0.03% (0%)
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-[ 199, 200): ██ 0.05% (0%)
-[ 200, 201): â–ˆ 0.03% (0%)
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-[ 202, 203): ██ 0.04% (1%)
-[ 203, 204): ███ 0.07% (1%)
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-[ 224, 225): ███████████ 0.26% (3%)
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-[ 226, 227): ███████████ 0.26% (4%)
-[ 227, 228): █████████████ 0.30% (4%)
-[ 228, 229): ████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
-[ 229, 230): ████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
-[ 230, 231): ███████████████ 0.34% (5%)
-[ 231, 232): ████████████████ 0.36% (6%)
-[ 232, 233): █████████████████ 0.39% (6%)
-[ 233, 234): ███████████████████ 0.42% (7%)
-[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████ 0.49% (7%)
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-[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████ 0.50% (8%)
-[ 238, 239): █████████████████████████ 0.57% (9%)
-[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████ 0.60% (10%)
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-[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████ 0.58% (11%)
-[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (12%)
-[ 244, 245): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (13%)
-[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (14%)
-[ 246, 247): █████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (14%)
-[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (15%)
-[ 248, 249): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (16%)
-[ 249, 250): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (17%)
-[ 250, 251): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (18%)
-[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (19%)
-[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (20%)
-[ 253, 254): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (21%)
-[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (22%)
-[ 255, 256): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.13% (23%)
-[ 256, 257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (24%)
-[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (25%)
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-[ 263, 264): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (33%)
-[ 264, 265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (34%)
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-[ 272, 273): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (46%)
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-[ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (49%)
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-[ 289, 290): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (71%)
-[ 290, 291): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.56% (73%)
-[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (74%)
-[ 292, 293): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.23% (75%)
-[ 293, 294): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.17% (76%)
-[ 294, 295): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.31% (78%)
-[ 295, 296): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (79%)
-[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.21% (80%)
-[ 297, 298): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (81%)
-[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (82%)
-[ 299, 300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.09% (83%)
-[ 300, 301): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.16% (84%)
-[ 301, 302): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (85%)
-[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (86%)
-[ 303, 304): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (87%)
-[ 304, 305): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (88%)
-[ 305, 306): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (89%)
-[ 306, 307): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (90%)
-[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (90%)
-[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████ 0.66% (91%)
-[ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████ 0.66% (92%)
-[ 310, 311): ███████████████████████████████ 0.68% (92%)
-[ 311, 312): ███████████████████████████ 0.60% (93%)
-[ 312, 313): ████████████████████████ 0.53% (94%)
-[ 313, 314): █████████████████████████ 0.56% (94%)
-[ 314, 315): ██████████████████████ 0.49% (95%)
-[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.42% (95%)
-[ 316, 317): █████████████████████ 0.48% (96%)
-[ 317, 318): ███████████████████ 0.42% (96%)
-[ 318, 319): ███████████████ 0.35% (96%)
-[ 319, 320): ██████████████████ 0.41% (97%)
-[ 320, 321): ██████████████ 0.32% (97%)
-[ 321, 322): ███████████ 0.25% (97%)
-[ 322, 323): ████████████ 0.27% (98%)
-[ 323, 324): ████████████ 0.27% (98%)
-[ 324, 325): ███████████ 0.25% (98%)
-[ 325, 326): ██████████ 0.23% (98%)
-[ 326, 327): ████████ 0.19% (99%)
-[ 327, 328): ██████ 0.15% (99%)
-[ 328, 329): █████ 0.12% (99%)
-[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.17% (99%)
-[ 330, 331): █████ 0.11% (99%)
-[ 331, 332): ███ 0.08% (99%)
-[ 332, 333): ███ 0.09% (99%)
-[ 333, 334): █████ 0.12% (99%)
-[ 334, 335): ████ 0.09% (99%)
-[ 335, 336): ████ 0.10% (100%)
-[ 336, 337): ███ 0.07% (100%)
-[ 337, 338): ██ 0.05% (100%)
-[ 338, 339): ██ 0.06% (100%)
-[ 339, 340): ██ 0.05% (100%)
-[ 340, 341): â–ˆ 0.03% (100%)
-[ 341, 342): 0.02% (100%)
-[ 342, 343): â–ˆ 0.03% (100%)
-[ 343, 344): 0.02% (100%)
-[ 344, 345): 0.02% (100%)
-[ 345, 346): 0.02% (100%)
-[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 347, 348): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 349, 350): 0.02% (100%)
-[ 350, 351): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 352, 353): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 353, 354): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 354, 355): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 355, 356): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 356, 357): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 357, 358): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 358, 359): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 359, 360): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 360, 361): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 361, 362): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 362, 363): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 363, 364): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 364, 365): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 365, 366): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 366, 367): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 367, 368): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 368, 369): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 369, 370): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 370, 371): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 371, 372): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 372, 373): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 373, 374): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 374, 375): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 375, 376): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 376, 377): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 377, 378): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 378, 379): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 379, 380): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 380, 381): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 381, 382): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 382, 383): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 383, 384): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 384, 385): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 385, 386): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 386, 387): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 387, 388): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 388, 389): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 389, 390): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 390, 391): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 391, 392): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 392, 393): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 393, 394): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 394, 395): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 395, 396): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 396, 397): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
-
-% republicans: 0.589620
diff --git a/output.txt b/output.txt
@@ -1,147 +1,225 @@
-
-
-State: Kansas
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Kentucky
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Mississippi
- Votes: 6
+State: Alaska
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Oregon
- Votes: 8
+State: Minnesota
+ Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 522.880000
+ Mean R: 48.837209
+ Std of mean R: 2.186007
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.852674
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381397
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 522.000000
+ Mean R: 48.837209
+ Std of mean R: 2.187849
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.854515
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.381452
-State: Alaska
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: District of Columbia
- Votes: 3
+State: New Jersey
+ Votes: 14
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 768.000000
+ Mean R: 46.614583
+ Std of mean R: 1.800079
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 768.000000
+ Mean R: 46.614583
+ Std of mean R: 1.800079
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.466746
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.164398
-State: Idaho
+State: New Mexico
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+
+State: Rhode Island
Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Indiana
+State: Arizona
Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 438.600000
+ Mean R: 51.764706
+ Std of mean R: 2.385970
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.385970
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.594419
+ Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 534.000000
+ Mean R: 52.808989
+ Std of mean R: 2.160294
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.160294
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.652582
+ Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 377.250000
+ Mean R: 52.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.572217
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.572217
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604158
+ Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Sample size: 420.000000
+ Mean R: 52.857143
+ Std of mean R: 2.435764
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.435764
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649601
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1769.000000
+ Mean R: 52.389186
+ Std of mean R: 1.187435
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.187435
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.650302
-State: South Carolina
- Votes: 9
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Utah
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Michigan
- Votes: 15
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 852.000000
- Mean R: 52.347418
- Std of mean R: 1.711083
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
- Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 811.780000
- Mean R: 54.054054
- Std of mean R: 1.749116
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
- Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 587.052000
- Mean R: 51.932367
- Std of mean R: 2.062088
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
- Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 558.000000
- Mean R: 51.612903
- Std of mean R: 2.115567
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
- Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 492.800000
- Mean R: 51.250000
- Std of mean R: 2.251640
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
- Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 539.220000
- Mean R: 51.162791
- Std of mean R: 2.152631
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3840 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76914080521717 Trump:52.23085919478282] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3840.000000
- Mean R: 52.230859
- Std of mean R: 0.806068
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176
+State: Florida
+ Votes: 30
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
+ Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 743.750000
+ Mean R: 54.117647
+ Std of mean R: 1.827169
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.827169
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.726788
+ Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 838.000000
+ Mean R: 58.711217
+ Std of mean R: 1.700805
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.700805
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.903204
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1581.000000
+ Mean R: 56.551288
+ Std of mean R: 1.246648
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.246648
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.852858
-State: Nevada
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 52.173913
- Std of mean R: 2.126129
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 52.173913
- Std of mean R: 2.126129
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
+State: Maine
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Pennsylvania
Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 353.420000
- Mean R: 48.780488
- Std of mean R: 2.658859
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 546.000000
Mean R: 51.648352
Std of mean R: 2.138639
Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
- Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 882.960000
- Mean R: 51.282051
- Std of mean R: 1.682119
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.138639
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.591306
Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 680.000000
Mean R: 48.235294
Std of mean R: 1.916218
Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.916218
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.399302
+ Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 882.960000
+ Mean R: 51.282051
+ Std of mean R: 1.682119
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.682119
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.576075
Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 658.750000
Mean R: 51.764706
Std of mean R: 1.946879
Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.946879
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.600263
+ Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 353.420000
+ Mean R: 48.780488
+ Std of mean R: 2.658859
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.658859
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.436744
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3121.000000
Mean R: 50.500940
Std of mean R: 0.894955
Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.894955
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.533860
-State: Arkansas
- Votes: 6
+State: South Carolina
+ Votes: 9
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Wisconsin
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 830.000000
+ Mean R: 52.289157
+ Std of mean R: 1.733705
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.733705
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633055
+ Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 552.000000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.128141
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.128141
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1382.000000
+ Mean R: 51.374819
+ Std of mean R: 1.344472
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.344472
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.585777
+
+State: North Dakota
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Oregon
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Alabama
+ Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
@@ -154,61 +232,139 @@ State: California
Mean R: 36.470588
Std of mean R: 1.585750
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252417
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 921.000000
Mean R: 36.470588
Std of mean R: 1.586094
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.252761
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000016
-State: Iowa
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+State: Georgia
+ Votes: 16
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 522.000000
+ Mean R: 50.574713
+ Std of mean R: 2.188296
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.188296
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.531862
+ Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 646.000000
+ Mean R: 51.764706
+ Std of mean R: 1.965998
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.965998
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.599994
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1168.000000
+ Mean R: 51.232877
+ Std of mean R: 1.462570
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.462570
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575648
-State: Louisiana
- Votes: 8
+State: Illinois
+ Votes: 19
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Kansas
+ Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Arizona
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
+State: North Carolina
+ Votes: 16
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 377.250000
- Mean R: 52.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.572217
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
- Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
- Sample size: 420.000000
- Mean R: 52.857143
- Std of mean R: 2.435764
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
- Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 438.600000
- Mean R: 51.764706
- Std of mean R: 2.385970
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
- Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 534.000000
- Mean R: 52.808989
- Std of mean R: 2.160294
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.61081447580304 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1769.000000
- Mean R: 52.389186
- Std of mean R: 1.187435
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
+ Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 883.920000
+ Mean R: 51.724138
+ Std of mean R: 1.680758
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.680758
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.601826
+ Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1106.790000
+ Mean R: 51.898734
+ Std of mean R: 1.501841
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.501841
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.614868
+ Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 493.800000
+ Mean R: 52.612394
+ Std of mean R: 2.246989
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.246989
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640756
+ Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 526.440000
+ Mean R: 52.439024
+ Std of mean R: 2.176598
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.176598
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633018
+ Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 552.000000
+ Mean R: 53.260870
+ Std of mean R: 2.123611
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.123611
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.676436
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3562.000000
+ Mean R: 52.245190
+ Std of mean R: 0.836922
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.836922
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.649753
-State: North Dakota
- Votes: 3
+State: Texas
+ Votes: 40
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 929.000000
+ Mean R: 54.574812
+ Std of mean R: 1.633566
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.300232
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.917158
+ Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 938.280000
+ Mean R: 57.142857
+ Std of mean R: 1.615572
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.282239
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.985230
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1867.000000
+ Mean R: 55.865216
+ Std of mean R: 1.149183
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.815849
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.981371
-State: Virginia
- Votes: 13
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+State: Utah
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Washington
Votes: 12
@@ -219,71 +375,140 @@ State: Washington
Mean R: 43.529412
Std of mean R: 2.195419
Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 510.000000
Mean R: 43.529412
Std of mean R: 2.195419
Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.862086
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.046927
State: Wyoming
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Delaware
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: Colorado
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+ Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 556.160000
+ Mean R: 44.318182
+ Std of mean R: 2.106434
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106434
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.211991
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 556.000000
+ Mean R: 44.318182
+ Std of mean R: 2.106737
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.106737
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.212001
-State: Illinois
- Votes: 19
+State: Connecticut
+ Votes: 7
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: Iowa
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+
State: Maryland
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Minnesota
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 522.880000
- Mean R: 48.837209
- Std of mean R: 2.186007
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 522.000000
- Mean R: 48.837209
- Std of mean R: 2.187849
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
+State: Mississippi
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Virginia
+ Votes: 13
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
State: West Virginia
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: New Jersey
- Votes: 14
+State: Delaware
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 768.000000
- Mean R: 46.614583
- Std of mean R: 1.800079
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 768.000000
- Mean R: 46.614583
- Std of mean R: 1.800079
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
-State: Rhode Island
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: Michigan
+ Votes: 15
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 492.800000
+ Mean R: 51.250000
+ Std of mean R: 2.251640
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.251640
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.568429
+ Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 558.000000
+ Mean R: 51.612903
+ Std of mean R: 2.115567
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.115567
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.589661
+ Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 811.780000
+ Mean R: 54.054054
+ Std of mean R: 1.749116
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.749116
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.725973
+ Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 852.000000
+ Mean R: 52.347418
+ Std of mean R: 1.711083
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.711083
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.636749
+ Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 587.052000
+ Mean R: 51.932367
+ Std of mean R: 2.062088
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.062088
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607814
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3301 PollResults:map[Biden:47.59470467938281 Trump:52.4052953206172] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3301.000000
+ Mean R: 52.405295
+ Std of mean R: 0.869249
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.997172
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.869249
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.659028
+
+State: Nebraska
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+
+State: Ohio
+ Votes: 17
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
+
+State: Oklahoma
+ Votes: 7
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Tennessee
Votes: 11
@@ -294,76 +519,93 @@ State: Tennessee
Mean R: 65.753425
Std of mean R: 1.779618
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446285
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 711.000000
Mean R: 65.753425
Std of mean R: 1.779643
Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ N republican wins: 6
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.446310
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999998
-State: Texas
- Votes: 40
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86643 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:7.6 Stein:1.7 Trump:50.7 West:1] Date:2024-04-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 929.000000
- Mean R: 54.574812
- Std of mean R: 1.633566
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.997449
- Poll: {PollId:86544 SampleSize:1117 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:15 Trump:48] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 938.280000
- Mean R: 57.142857
- Std of mean R: 1.615572
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999995
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1867.000000
- Mean R: 55.865216
- Std of mean R: 1.149183
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+State: District of Columbia
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Montana
- Votes: 4
+State: Louisiana
+ Votes: 8
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: New Mexico
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+State: Nevada
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
+ Poll: {PollId:86586 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:15 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 552.000000
+ Mean R: 52.173913
+ Std of mean R: 2.126129
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 552.000000
+ Mean R: 52.173913
+ Std of mean R: 2.126129
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.126129
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.619841
+
+State: New Hampshire
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
-State: New York
- Votes: 28
+State: Hawaii
+ Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Vermont
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: Idaho
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Colorado
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 556.160000
- Mean R: 44.318182
- Std of mean R: 2.106434
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 556.000000
- Mean R: 44.318182
- Std of mean R: 2.106737
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
+State: Indiana
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
-State: Hawaii
+State: Montana
Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: South Dakota
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Vermont
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Maine
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: Arkansas
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Kentucky
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Massachusetts
Votes: 11
@@ -374,146 +616,29 @@ State: Massachusetts
Mean R: 37.837838
Std of mean R: 1.781052
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.447718
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 741.000000
Mean R: 37.837838
Std of mean R: 1.781628
Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Wisconsin
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 50.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.128141
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 830.000000
- Mean R: 52.289157
- Std of mean R: 1.733705
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1382.000000
- Mean R: 51.374819
- Std of mean R: 1.344472
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
-
-State: North Carolina
- Votes: 16
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 883.920000
- Mean R: 51.724138
- Std of mean R: 1.680758
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
- Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1106.790000
- Mean R: 51.898734
- Std of mean R: 1.501841
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
- Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 552.000000
- Mean R: 53.260870
- Std of mean R: 2.123611
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
- Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 526.440000
- Mean R: 52.439024
- Std of mean R: 2.176598
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
- Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 493.800000
- Mean R: 52.612394
- Std of mean R: 2.246989
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.245190081252886] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3562.000000
- Mean R: 52.245190
- Std of mean R: 0.836922
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.996348
-
-State: Ohio
- Votes: 17
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
-
-State: Connecticut
- Votes: 7
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Florida
- Votes: 30
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
- Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 838.000000
- Mean R: 58.711217
- Std of mean R: 1.700805
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 743.750000
- Mean R: 54.117647
- Std of mean R: 1.827169
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1581.000000
- Mean R: 56.551288
- Std of mean R: 1.246648
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Nebraska
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
-
-State: New Hampshire
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
-
-State: South Dakota
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Alabama
- Votes: 9
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Georgia
- Votes: 16
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 522.000000
- Mean R: 50.574713
- Std of mean R: 2.188296
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
- Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 646.000000
- Mean R: 51.764706
- Std of mean R: 1.965998
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1168.000000
- Mean R: 51.232877
- Std of mean R: 1.462570
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.448295
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000210
State: Missouri
Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Oklahoma
- Votes: 7
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+State: New York
+ Votes: 28
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
@@ -528,261 +653,261 @@ State: Oklahoma
[ 141, 142): 0.00% (0%)
[ 142, 143): 0.00% (0%)
[ 143, 144): 0.00% (0%)
-[ 144, 145): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 144, 145): 0.00% (0%)
[ 145, 146): 0.00% (0%)
[ 146, 147): 0.00% (0%)
[ 147, 148): 0.00% (0%)
[ 148, 149): 0.00% (0%)
[ 149, 150): 0.00% (0%)
-[ 150, 151): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 151, 152): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 152, 153): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 153, 154): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 154, 155): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 155, 156): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 156, 157): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 157, 158): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 158, 159): â–ˆ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 159, 160): â–ˆ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 160, 161): â–ˆ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 161, 162): â–ˆ 0.01% (0%)
-[ 162, 163): â–ˆ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 163, 164): â–ˆ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 164, 165): â–ˆ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 165, 166): ██ 0.03% (0%)
-[ 166, 167): ██ 0.03% (0%)
-[ 167, 168): ██ 0.03% (0%)
-[ 168, 169): ███ 0.04% (0%)
-[ 169, 170): ██ 0.04% (0%)
-[ 170, 171): ███ 0.04% (0%)
-[ 171, 172): ██ 0.04% (1%)
-[ 172, 173): ███ 0.05% (1%)
-[ 173, 174): ███ 0.04% (1%)
-[ 174, 175): ████ 0.06% (1%)
-[ 175, 176): ████ 0.06% (1%)
-[ 176, 177): ████ 0.06% (1%)
-[ 177, 178): █████ 0.08% (1%)
-[ 178, 179): █████ 0.08% (1%)
-[ 179, 180): ██████ 0.09% (1%)
-[ 180, 181): ████ 0.06% (1%)
-[ 181, 182): █████ 0.08% (1%)
-[ 182, 183): ███████ 0.10% (1%)
-[ 183, 184): ███████ 0.10% (1%)
-[ 184, 185): ██████ 0.08% (1%)
-[ 185, 186): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
-[ 186, 187): █████████ 0.13% (2%)
-[ 187, 188): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
-[ 188, 189): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
-[ 189, 190): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
-[ 190, 191): ████████ 0.11% (2%)
-[ 191, 192): ██████████ 0.14% (2%)
-[ 192, 193): ███████████ 0.16% (3%)
-[ 193, 194): ██████████████ 0.20% (3%)
-[ 194, 195): ████████████ 0.18% (3%)
-[ 195, 196): ████████████ 0.17% (3%)
-[ 196, 197): ████████████ 0.17% (3%)
-[ 197, 198): █████████████ 0.18% (3%)
-[ 198, 199): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%)
-[ 199, 200): ████████████████ 0.22% (4%)
-[ 200, 201): ████████████████ 0.23% (4%)
-[ 201, 202): █████████████████ 0.24% (4%)
-[ 202, 203): ███████████████ 0.21% (5%)
-[ 203, 204): ████████████████████ 0.28% (5%)
-[ 204, 205): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%)
-[ 205, 206): ███████████████████ 0.27% (5%)
-[ 206, 207): ███████████████████ 0.27% (6%)
-[ 207, 208): █████████████████████ 0.29% (6%)
-[ 208, 209): █████████████████████ 0.30% (6%)
-[ 209, 210): ███████████████████████ 0.33% (7%)
-[ 210, 211): ████████████████████████ 0.34% (7%)
-[ 211, 212): █████████████████████████ 0.35% (7%)
-[ 212, 213): ████████████████████████████ 0.39% (8%)
-[ 213, 214): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (8%)
-[ 214, 215): ███████████████████████████ 0.38% (8%)
-[ 215, 216): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%)
-[ 216, 217): ███████████████████████████████ 0.43% (9%)
-[ 217, 218): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%)
-[ 218, 219): ████████████████████████████████ 0.44% (10%)
-[ 219, 220): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (11%)
-[ 220, 221): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.52% (11%)
-[ 221, 222): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (12%)
-[ 222, 223): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.54% (12%)
-[ 223, 224): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%)
-[ 224, 225): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (13%)
-[ 225, 226): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (14%)
-[ 226, 227): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (14%)
-[ 227, 228): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.55% (15%)
-[ 228, 229): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (16%)
-[ 229, 230): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (16%)
-[ 230, 231): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%)
-[ 231, 232): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (17%)
-[ 232, 233): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (18%)
-[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (19%)
-[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (19%)
-[ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (20%)
-[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (21%)
-[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (22%)
-[ 238, 239): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (22%)
-[ 239, 240): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (23%)
-[ 240, 241): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (24%)
-[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (25%)
-[ 242, 243): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (25%)
-[ 243, 244): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (26%)
-[ 244, 245): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (27%)
-[ 245, 246): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.82% (28%)
-[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (29%)
-[ 247, 248): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84% (30%)
-[ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (30%)
-[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (31%)
-[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (32%)
-[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (33%)
-[ 252, 253): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (34%)
-[ 253, 254): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (35%)
-[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (36%)
-[ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (37%)
-[ 256, 257): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (38%)
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-[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (40%)
-[ 259, 260): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (41%)
-[ 260, 261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (42%)
-[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (42%)
-[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (43%)
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-[ 269, 270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (50%)
-[ 270, 271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (51%)
-[ 271, 272): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (52%)
-[ 272, 273): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (53%)
-[ 273, 274): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (54%)
-[ 274, 275): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (55%)
-[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (56%)
-[ 276, 277): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (57%)
-[ 277, 278): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (58%)
-[ 278, 279): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (59%)
-[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.96% (60%)
-[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (61%)
-[ 281, 282): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (62%)
-[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90% (63%)
-[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (63%)
-[ 284, 285): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (64%)
-[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (65%)
-[ 286, 287): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (66%)
-[ 287, 288): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (67%)
-[ 288, 289): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (68%)
-[ 289, 290): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (69%)
-[ 290, 291): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (70%)
-[ 291, 292): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.81% (70%)
-[ 292, 293): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.80% (71%)
-[ 293, 294): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.83% (72%)
-[ 294, 295): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (73%)
-[ 295, 296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (74%)
-[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (74%)
-[ 297, 298): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (75%)
-[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (76%)
-[ 299, 300): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (77%)
-[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (77%)
-[ 301, 302): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (78%)
-[ 302, 303): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.67% (79%)
-[ 303, 304): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (79%)
-[ 304, 305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (80%)
-[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (81%)
-[ 306, 307): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (81%)
-[ 307, 308): ██████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (82%)
-[ 308, 309): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (83%)
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-[ 312, 313): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.51% (85%)
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-[ 314, 315): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (86%)
-[ 315, 316): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.48% (86%)
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-[ 319, 320): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (88%)
-[ 320, 321): ██████████████████████████████ 0.42% (89%)
-[ 321, 322): ██████████████████████████ 0.37% (89%)
-[ 322, 323): █████████████████████████████ 0.40% (89%)
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-[ 333, 334): █████████████████████ 0.29% (93%)
-[ 334, 335): ███████████████████ 0.26% (93%)
-[ 335, 336): █████████████████ 0.24% (94%)
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-[ 346, 347): █████████████ 0.19% (96%)
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-[ 389, 390): â–ˆ 0.02% (100%)
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-[ 391, 392): â–ˆ 0.01% (100%)
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-[ 394, 395): 0.01% (100%)
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-[ 396, 397): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 397, 398): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 398, 399): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 399, 400): 0.01% (100%)
-
-% republicans: 0.496280
+[ 150, 151): 0.00% (0%)
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+[ 197, 198): ██ 0.05% (0%)
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+[ 285, 286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (65%)
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+[ 344, 345): â–ˆ 0.02% (100%)
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+[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 347, 348): 0.02% (100%)
+[ 348, 349): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%)
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+[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
+
+% republicans: 0.588200
