commit d1e1eb1fc4e9909e767bb6b10151ddfb2eb93d94
parent f115fd20397803b8cdf118a45520f418dfdfd78c
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 12:03:27 -0400
various tweaks
Diffstat:
| M | README.md | | | 18 | ++++++++++++++---- |
| M | main.go | | | 54 | ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------ |
2 files changed, 50 insertions(+), 22 deletions(-)
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -40,13 +40,23 @@ Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions u
- [x] Download and format
- [x] Read
- [x] Add date of poll
-- [ ] Consider what the standards error should be
-- [ ] Consider how to aggregate polls?
+- [x] Consider what the standards error should be
+- [x] Consider how to aggregate polls?
- One extreme: Just look at the most recent one
- [x] Another extreme: Aggregate very naïvely, add up all samples together?
-- [ ] Aggregate polls?
-- [ ] Exclude polls older than one month?
+- [x] Aggregate polls?
+- [x] Exclude polls older than one month?
- [ ] Exclude partisan polls
- [ ] ...
https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/274211/calculating-the-probability-of-someone-winning-from-a-poll
+
+This time, the republicans win by a mile.
+
+What is happening?
+- Trump polling ok in Minessota,
+- No polls in Iowa yet
+- Trump polling very well in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, Michigan, Florida, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina
+ - In part because of the Kennedy/West/Stein vote.
+- Biden is poling well in Colorado
+- Not that many polls yet, in general
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -29,10 +29,12 @@ type Poll struct {
SampleSize int
PollResults map[string]float64
Date time.Time
+ Partisan string
}
/* Globals */
var r = rand.New(rand.NewPCG(uint64(100), uint64(2224)))
+var dev = true
/* Load data from csvs */
func readStates() ([]State, error) {
@@ -119,8 +121,9 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
poll_id := record[0]
state_name := record[12]
- candidate_name := record[44]
end_date := record[14]
+ partisan := record[32]
+ candidate_name := record[44]
date_layout := "1/2/06"
parsed_date, err := time.Parse(date_layout, end_date)
@@ -150,6 +153,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
SampleSize: sample_size,
PollResults: make(map[string]float64),
Date: parsed_date,
+ Partisan: partisan,
}
}
poll.PollResults[candidate_name] = percentage
@@ -202,11 +206,12 @@ func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPoll(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size float6
/* Sample state by state */
func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
- fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
- fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
- fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
- // fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
-
+ if dev {
+ fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
+ // fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
+ }
switch state.Name {
case "Nebraska":
/*
@@ -241,13 +246,14 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
default:
{
/* Just considering the base rate for the state */
- p_republican := 0.0
+ p_baserate_republican := 0.0
for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
if party == "R" {
- p_republican++
+ p_baserate_republican++
}
}
- p_republican = p_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory))
+ p_baserate_republican = p_baserate_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory))
+ p_republican := p_baserate_republican // if no polls
/* Considering polls */
var recent_polls []Poll
@@ -294,8 +300,10 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
std_poll := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_poll)
- fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_biden_trump_poll)
- fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
+ if dev {
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_biden_trump_poll)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
+ }
// Update general tally
num_biden_votes += poll_biden_votes
@@ -308,12 +316,18 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
std_all_polls := math.Sqrt((aggregate_trump_share * aggregate_biden_share) / total_sample_size)
- p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_all_polls)
- fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
+ p_republican_according_to_polls := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_all_polls)
+
+ if dev {
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_according_to_polls)
+ }
+ p_republican = 0.75*p_republican_according_to_polls + 0.25*p_baserate_republican
}
- fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate: %f", p_republican)
+ if dev {
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate: %f", p_baserate_republican)
+ }
if r.Float64() < p_republican {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
} else {
@@ -331,7 +345,9 @@ func simulateElection(states []State) int {
republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans
}
- fmt.Printf("\n\n\n (%d) ", republican_seats)
+ if dev {
+ fmt.Printf("\n\n(%d) ", republican_seats)
+ }
if republican_seats >= 270 {
return 1
} else {
@@ -347,17 +363,19 @@ func main() {
return
}
- n_sims := 1
+ n_sims := 10
p_republicans := 0.0
for i := 0; i < n_sims; i++ {
result := simulateElection(states)
- fmt.Printf("Election result: %d\n", result)
+ if dev {
+ fmt.Printf("Election result: %d", result)
+ }
if result == 1 {
p_republicans++
}
}
p_republicans = p_republicans / float64(n_sims)
- fmt.Printf("%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\n\n%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans)
}
