2024-election-modelling

commit f115fd20397803b8cdf118a45520f418dfdfd78c
parent 0b6b80accb27d5a30cf8598661b4c3f504b114c0
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date:   Sun, 14 Apr 2024 11:35:24 -0400

add more poll math

Diffstat:
M
main.go
 | 
19
++++++++++++++-----

1 file changed, 14 insertions(+), 5 deletions(-)
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -294,17 +294,26 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 				std_poll := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
 
 				p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_poll)
-
 				fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_biden_trump_poll)
-				fmt.Printf("\n\t\tChance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
+				fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
 
 				// Update general tally
 				num_biden_votes += poll_biden_votes
 				num_trump_votes += poll_trump_votes
 			}
-			// total_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
+			total_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
+			if total_sample_size != 0.0 {
+				aggregate_trump_share := num_trump_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
+				aggregate_biden_share := num_biden_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
+
+				std_all_polls := math.Sqrt((aggregate_trump_share * aggregate_biden_share) / total_sample_size)
+
+				p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_all_polls)
+				fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
+
+			}
 
-			fmt.Println("")
+			fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate: %f", p_republican)
 			if r.Float64() < p_republican {
 				return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
 			} else {
@@ -322,7 +331,7 @@ func simulateElection(states []State) int {
 		republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans
 	}
 
-	fmt.Printf(" (%d) ", republican_seats)
+	fmt.Printf("\n\n\n (%d) ", republican_seats)
 	if republican_seats >= 270 {
 		return 1
 	} else {