commit 98064be7bafa5c9e2f3acd2c86d3e3f8ac064b30
parent 16192861a0001deaf17cd15fbf0060c2676ea6fb
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Tue, 11 Jun 2024 18:03:38 -0400
update top of histogram
Diffstat:
1 file changed, 736 insertions(+), 598 deletions(-)
diff --git a/out/output-2024-06-11.txt b/out/output-2024-06-11.txt
@@ -1,74 +1,63 @@
go run main.go
-State: Pennsylvania
+State: Illinois
Votes: 19
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 678.900000
- Mean R: 51.612903
- Std of mean R: 1.917967
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398
- Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 423.690000
- Mean R: 48.275862
- Std of mean R: 2.427658
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258
- Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 856.800000
- Mean R: 49.411765
- Std of mean R: 1.708049
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1959.000000
- Mean R: 49.928804
- Std of mean R: 1.129672
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463
-
-State: Maine
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Maryland
- Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Mississippi
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Missouri
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: New Mexico
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+State: North Carolina
+ Votes: 16
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 456.000000
+ Mean R: 57.894737
+ Std of mean R: 2.312093
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
+ Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 659.650000
+ Mean R: 51.898734
+ Std of mean R: 1.945359
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275
+ Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 534.890000
+ Mean R: 53.932584
+ Std of mean R: 2.155214
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557
+ Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1212.120000
+ Mean R: 52.747253
+ Std of mean R: 1.433972
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
+ Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 410.640000
+ Mean R: 51.724138
+ Std of mean R: 2.465932
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3273.000000
+ Mean R: 53.358690
+ Std of mean R: 0.871997
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710
-State: North Dakota
- Votes: 3
+State: Oklahoma
+ Votes: 7
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Oregon
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
State: South Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
@@ -92,45 +81,88 @@ State: South Dakota
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.746172
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998855
-State: Texas
- Votes: 40
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Arkansas
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Connecticut
- Votes: 7
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Montana
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Delaware
+State: Vermont
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: District of Columbia
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+State: Wisconsin
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 253.500000
+ Mean R: 46.666667
+ Std of mean R: 3.133385
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
+ Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 658.350000
+ Mean R: 51.578947
+ Std of mean R: 1.947713
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.947713
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604677
+ Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 429.440000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.412786
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.412786
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 452.700000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.349983
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.349983
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1793.000000
+ Mean R: 50.108418
+ Std of mean R: 1.180807
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348
-State: Indiana
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+State: Colorado
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
-State: Tennessee
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+State: Georgia
+ Votes: 16
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 390.100000
+ Mean R: 50.602410
+ Std of mean R: 2.531340
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744
+ Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 546.000000
+ Mean R: 51.648352
+ Std of mean R: 2.138639
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851
+ Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 962.400000
+ Mean R: 53.750000
+ Std of mean R: 1.607190
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1898.000000
+ Mean R: 52.498815
+ Std of mean R: 1.146249
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361
State: Ohio
Votes: 17
@@ -158,10 +190,130 @@ State: Ohio
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393
+State: Pennsylvania
+ Votes: 19
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:87009 SampleSize:487 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 423.690000
+ Mean R: 48.275862
+ Std of mean R: 2.427658
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.238788
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.427658
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.394258
+ Poll: {PollId:87020 SampleSize:730 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 678.900000
+ Mean R: 51.612903
+ Std of mean R: 1.917967
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.799810
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.917967
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.607398
+ Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 856.800000
+ Mean R: 49.411765
+ Std of mean R: 1.708049
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1959 PollResults:map[Biden:50.07119562721051 Trump:49.92880437278949] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1959.000000
+ Mean R: 49.928804
+ Std of mean R: 1.129672
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.474874
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.129672
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.494463
+
+State: Washington
+ Votes: 12
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 578.100000
+ Mean R: 41.489362
+ Std of mean R: 2.049200
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.382533
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005934
+ Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 306.280000
+ Mean R: 44.736842
+ Std of mean R: 2.841131
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.174464
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.103691
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 884.000000
+ Mean R: 42.614035
+ Std of mean R: 1.663233
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854
+
+State: Alabama
+ Votes: 9
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Kansas
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Kentucky
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Minnesota
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 680.800000
+ Mean R: 47.708578
+ Std of mean R: 1.914272
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 680.000000
+ Mean R: 47.708578
+ Std of mean R: 1.915398
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303
+
+State: Missouri
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Tennessee
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
State: Arizona
Votes: 11
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
+ Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 952.650000
+ Mean R: 52.873563
+ Std of mean R: 1.617279
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
Poll: {PollId:87026 SampleSize:609 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.2 Trump:42.8] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 499.989000
Mean R: 52.131547
@@ -169,13 +321,6 @@ State: Arizona
Poll says chance of R win: 0.829987
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.234060
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.633794
- Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1002.120000
- Mean R: 52.380952
- Std of mean R: 1.577674
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264
Poll: {PollId:86988 SampleSize:1003 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:1] Date:2024-05-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 792.370000
Mean R: 54.430380
@@ -183,13 +328,6 @@ State: Arizona
Poll says chance of R win: 0.993861
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.769271
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.778735
- Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 411.600000
- Mean R: 52.380952
- Std of mean R: 2.461724
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739
Poll: {PollId:87015 SampleSize:527 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 469.030000
Mean R: 50.561798
@@ -197,13 +335,20 @@ State: Arizona
Poll says chance of R win: 0.596134
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.308566
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535480
- Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 952.650000
- Mean R: 52.873563
- Std of mean R: 1.617279
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
+ Poll: {PollId:87003 SampleSize:490 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:11 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 411.600000
+ Mean R: 52.380952
+ Std of mean R: 2.461724
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.833275
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.461724
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.643739
+ Poll: {PollId:86964 SampleSize:1193 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Stein:5 Trump:44] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1002.120000
+ Mean R: 52.380952
+ Std of mean R: 1.577674
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.934370
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.577674
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.665264
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:4127 PollResults:map[Biden:47.34886411730917 Trump:52.651135882690824] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 4127.000000
Mean R: 52.651136
@@ -212,24 +357,77 @@ State: Arizona
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.777215
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.710537
+State: Iowa
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+
+State: Maine
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Massachusetts
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 525.000000
+ Mean R: 36.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.094892
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
+ Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 526.000000
+ Mean R: 32.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.033933
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.367266
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1051.000000
+ Mean R: 33.998097
+ Std of mean R: 1.461182
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ N republican wins: 0
+ => Reducing additional uncertainty
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Mississippi
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Montana
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Nebraska
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+
+State: Texas
+ Votes: 40
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: District of Columbia
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
State: Florida
Votes: 30
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
- Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 861.000000
- Mean R: 56.097561
- Std of mean R: 1.691277
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
- Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1003.850000
- Mean R: 57.647059
- Std of mean R: 1.559538
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509
Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 935.250000
Mean R: 54.022989
@@ -244,7 +442,21 @@ State: Florida
Poll says chance of R win: 0.983768
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.418555
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789836
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.14319933476474 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 861.000000
+ Mean R: 56.097561
+ Std of mean R: 1.691277
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
+ Poll: {PollId:86963 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Stein:3 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1003.850000
+ Mean R: 57.647059
+ Std of mean R: 1.559538
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.559538
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.915509
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3222 PollResults:map[Biden:44.143199334764745 Trump:55.85680066523525] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 3222.000000
Mean R: 55.856801
Std of mean R: 0.874797
@@ -252,8 +464,8 @@ State: Florida
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.874797
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.885211
-State: Louisiana
- Votes: 8
+State: Idaho
+ Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
@@ -261,13 +473,6 @@ State: Michigan
Votes: 15
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 634.270000
- Mean R: 50.549451
- Std of mean R: 1.985211
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572
Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 648.940000
Mean R: 50.656455
@@ -275,6 +480,13 @@ State: Michigan
Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833
+ Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 628.140000
+ Mean R: 49.425287
+ Std of mean R: 1.994863
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
Poll: {PollId:87006 SampleSize:482 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:42 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
Sample size: 414.520000
Mean R: 48.837209
@@ -282,6 +494,13 @@ State: Michigan
Poll says chance of R win: 0.317889
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.455160
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.428524
+ Poll: {PollId:87048 SampleSize:697 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:5 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 634.270000
+ Mean R: 50.549451
+ Std of mean R: 1.985211
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.609022
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.985211
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536572
Poll: {PollId:87017 SampleSize:606 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 557.520000
Mean R: 51.086957
@@ -289,13 +508,6 @@ State: Michigan
Poll says chance of R win: 0.696172
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.117079
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570518
- Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 628.140000
- Mean R: 49.425287
- Std of mean R: 1.994863
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2883 PollResults:map[Biden:49.81358747862759 Trump:50.186412521372404] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 2883.000000
Mean R: 50.186413
@@ -304,115 +516,15 @@ State: Michigan
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.931204
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.515077
-State: Nebraska
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
-
-State: Nevada
+State: Utah
Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 357.780000
- Mean R: 55.056180
- Std of mean R: 2.629844
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161
- Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 908.650000
- Mean R: 52.941176
- Std of mean R: 1.655842
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
- Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 449.964000
- Mean R: 53.596288
- Std of mean R: 2.351012
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390
- Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 407.160000
- Mean R: 50.574713
- Std of mean R: 2.477757
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348
- Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 546.910000
- Mean R: 51.648352
- Std of mean R: 2.136859
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
- Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
- Sample size: 426.000000
- Mean R: 52.112676
- Std of mean R: 2.420344
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945
- Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 431.460000
- Mean R: 50.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.407131
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3527.000000
- Mean R: 52.305945
- Std of mean R: 0.841017
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082
-
-State: New York
- Votes: 28
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1012.350000
- Mean R: 44.705882
- Std of mean R: 1.562631
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767
- Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1000.000000
- Mean R: 44.800000
- Std of mean R: 1.572565
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 2012.000000
- Mean R: 44.752652
- Std of mean R: 1.108539
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
State: Virginia
Votes: 13
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
- Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 554.580000
- Mean R: 48.717949
- Std of mean R: 2.122487
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068
Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 918.810000
Mean R: 49.397590
@@ -420,6 +532,13 @@ State: Virginia
Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540
+ Poll: {PollId:87053 SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Stein:3 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 554.580000
+ Mean R: 48.717949
+ Std of mean R: 2.122487
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.272911
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.122487
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.417068
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1473 PollResults:map[Biden:50.85822490990166 Trump:49.14177509009835] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 1473.000000
Mean R: 49.141775
@@ -428,50 +547,10 @@ State: Virginia
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.302581
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.435712
-State: Wisconsin
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
- Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 253.500000
- Mean R: 46.666667
- Std of mean R: 3.133385
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
- Poll: {PollId:86994 SampleSize:693 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Harris:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:49 West:1] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 658.350000
- Mean R: 51.578947
- Std of mean R: 1.947713
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.791222
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.947713
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.604677
- Poll: {PollId:87010 SampleSize:488 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 429.440000
- Mean R: 50.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.412786
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.412786
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Poll: {PollId:87021 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:9 Trump:45] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 452.700000
- Mean R: 50.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.349983
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.349983
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1793 PollResults:map[Biden:49.89158245029236 Trump:50.10841754970763] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1793.000000
- Mean R: 50.108418
- Std of mean R: 1.180807
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.536578
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.180807
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.508348
-
-State: Alabama
- Votes: 9
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+State: Delaware
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: California
Votes: 54
@@ -483,113 +562,103 @@ State: Hawaii
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Iowa
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
+State: Indiana
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
-State: Minnesota
- Votes: 10
+State: New Jersey
+ Votes: 14
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 680.800000
- Mean R: 47.708578
- Std of mean R: 1.914272
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:680 PollResults:map[Biden:52.29142185663925 Trump:47.708578143360754] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 680.000000
- Mean R: 47.708578
- Std of mean R: 1.915398
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.115787
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.248731
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240303
-State: Washington
- Votes: 12
+State: Oregon
+ Votes: 8
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86961 SampleSize:615 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:39] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 578.100000
- Mean R: 41.489362
- Std of mean R: 2.049200
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000016
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.382533
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.005934
- Poll: {PollId:87033 SampleSize:403 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:34] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 306.280000
- Mean R: 44.736842
- Std of mean R: 2.841131
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.031978
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.174464
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.103691
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:884 PollResults:map[Biden:57.385965309030055 Trump:42.614034690969945] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 884.000000
- Mean R: 42.614035
- Std of mean R: 1.663233
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000004
- N republican wins: 0
- => Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.996566
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.006854
-State: Wyoming
+State: Alaska
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Colorado
- Votes: 10
+State: Louisiana
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Nevada
+ Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
-
-State: Georgia
- Votes: 16
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 962.400000
- Mean R: 53.750000
- Std of mean R: 1.607190
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
- Poll: {PollId:87005 SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:42 West:5] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 390.100000
- Mean R: 50.602410
- Std of mean R: 2.531340
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.594052
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.531340
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.536744
- Poll: {PollId:87016 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:10 Trump:47] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 546.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 908.650000
+ Mean R: 52.941176
+ Std of mean R: 1.655842
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
+ Poll: {PollId:87007 SampleSize:468 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
+ Sample size: 407.160000
+ Mean R: 50.574713
+ Std of mean R: 2.477757
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.591711
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.477757
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.535348
+ Poll: {PollId:87018 SampleSize:402 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:10 Trump:49] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 357.780000
+ Mean R: 55.056180
+ Std of mean R: 2.629844
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.972736
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.629844
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.777161
+ Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 546.910000
Mean R: 51.648352
- Std of mean R: 2.138639
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.138639
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605851
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1898 PollResults:map[Biden:47.50118514616803 Trump:52.49881485383197] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1898.000000
- Mean R: 52.498815
- Std of mean R: 1.146249
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.985371
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.146249
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.686361
+ Std of mean R: 2.136859
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
+ Poll: {PollId:87049 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:15 Trump:37] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Sample size: 426.000000
+ Mean R: 52.112676
+ Std of mean R: 2.420344
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.808636
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.420344
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.628945
+ Poll: {PollId:86991 SampleSize:459 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Harris:44 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 431.460000
+ Mean R: 50.000000
+ Std of mean R: 2.407131
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.407131
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Poll: {PollId:87027 SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7.9 Trump:46.2] Date:2024-05-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 449.964000
+ Mean R: 53.596288
+ Std of mean R: 2.351012
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.936952
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351012
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.714390
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3527 PollResults:map[Biden:47.69405463382998 Trump:52.305945366170015] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 3527.000000
+ Mean R: 52.305945
+ Std of mean R: 0.841017
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.996945
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.841017
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.683082
State: New Hampshire
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+ Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1140.000000
+ Mean R: 48.000000
+ Std of mean R: 1.479687
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562
Poll: {PollId:86980 SampleSize:862 PollResults:map[Biden:36.5 Kennedy:14.6 Trump:36.6] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 630.122000
Mean R: 50.068399
@@ -604,13 +673,6 @@ State: New Hampshire
Poll says chance of R win: 0.047554
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.304403
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.270906
- Poll: {PollId:87030 SampleSize:1140 PollResults:map[Biden:52 Kennedy:3 Stein:2 Trump:48 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1140.000000
- Mean R: 48.000000
- Std of mean R: 1.479687
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.088246
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.479687
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.357562
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2238 PollResults:map[Biden:51.80369970895241 Trump:48.19630029104758] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Sample size: 2238.000000
Mean R: 48.196300
@@ -619,8 +681,13 @@ State: New Hampshire
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.056227
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.360648
-State: Oklahoma
- Votes: 7
+State: New Mexico
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
+
+State: North Dakota
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
@@ -652,124 +719,52 @@ State: South Carolina
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Idaho
- Votes: 4
+State: Arkansas
+ Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Kansas
- Votes: 6
+State: Wyoming
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-State: Massachusetts
- Votes: 11
+State: Maryland
+ Votes: 10
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 525.000000
- Mean R: 36.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.094892
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: New York
+ Votes: 28
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1000.000000
+ Mean R: 44.800000
+ Std of mean R: 1.572565
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
- Poll: {PollId:87028 SampleSize:526 PollResults:map[Biden:68 Kennedy:10 Stein:2 Trump:32 West:1] Date:2024-05-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 526.000000
- Mean R: 32.000000
- Std of mean R: 2.033933
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
+ Poll: {PollId:86996 SampleSize:1191 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:38] Date:2024-05-15 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 1012.350000
+ Mean R: 44.705882
+ Std of mean R: 1.562631
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000352
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.367266
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1051 PollResults:map[Biden:66.00190294957184 Trump:33.998097050428164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1051.000000
- Mean R: 33.998097
- Std of mean R: 1.461182
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895964
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.033767
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2012 PollResults:map[Biden:55.247347628394664 Trump:44.752652371605336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Sample size: 2012.000000
+ Mean R: 44.752652
+ Std of mean R: 1.108539
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000001
N republican wins: 0
=> Reducing additional uncertainty
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.794515
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: North Carolina
- Votes: 16
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
- Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 456.000000
- Mean R: 57.894737
- Std of mean R: 2.312093
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
- Poll: {PollId:87019 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Trump:48] Date:2024-05-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 534.890000
- Mean R: 53.932584
- Std of mean R: 2.155214
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.965976
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.155214
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.738557
- Poll: {PollId:87008 SampleSize:472 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Stein:1 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-05-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 410.640000
- Mean R: 51.724138
- Std of mean R: 2.465932
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.757781
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.465932
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605131
- Poll: {PollId:86986 SampleSize:835 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:11 Trump:41] Date:2024-05-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:DEM}
- Sample size: 659.650000
- Mean R: 51.898734
- Std of mean R: 1.945359
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.835476
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.945359
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625275
- Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 1212.120000
- Mean R: 52.747253
- Std of mean R: 1.433972
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3273 PollResults:map[Biden:46.64130999297345 Trump:53.358690007026546] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Sample size: 3273.000000
- Mean R: 53.358690
- Std of mean R: 0.871997
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.999941
- Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.871997
- Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.754710
-
-State: Alaska
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Illinois
- Votes: 19
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Kentucky
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: New Jersey
- Votes: 14
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Utah
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Vermont
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.441873
+ Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.015821
State: West Virginia
Votes: 4
@@ -794,6 +789,11 @@ State: West Virginia
Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972
Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
+State: Connecticut
+ Votes: 7
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
[ 131, 132): 0.00% (0%)
[ 132, 133): 0.00% (0%)
[ 133, 134): 0.00% (0%)
@@ -853,7 +853,7 @@ State: West Virginia
[ 187, 188): 0.01% (0%)
[ 188, 189): 0.01% (0%)
[ 189, 190): 0.01% (0%)
-[ 190, 191): 0.01% (0%)
+[ 190, 191): 0.00% (0%)
[ 191, 192): 0.01% (0%)
[ 192, 193): 0.02% (0%)
[ 193, 194): █ 0.02% (0%)
@@ -861,147 +861,147 @@ State: West Virginia
[ 195, 196): 0.01% (0%)
[ 196, 197): 0.01% (0%)
[ 197, 198): █ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 198, 199): █ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 198, 199): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 199, 200): ██ 0.04% (0%)
[ 200, 201): █ 0.03% (0%)
-[ 201, 202): █ 0.02% (0%)
-[ 202, 203): █ 0.03% (0%)
-[ 203, 204): ███ 0.05% (0%)
+[ 201, 202): █ 0.03% (0%)
+[ 202, 203): ██ 0.04% (0%)
+[ 203, 204): ██ 0.05% (0%)
[ 204, 205): ███ 0.06% (0%)
[ 205, 206): ███ 0.06% (1%)
[ 206, 207): ██ 0.05% (1%)
-[ 207, 208): ███ 0.05% (1%)
+[ 207, 208): ███ 0.06% (1%)
[ 208, 209): ████ 0.07% (1%)
[ 209, 210): █████ 0.09% (1%)
-[ 210, 211): █████ 0.09% (1%)
+[ 210, 211): ████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 211, 212): ████ 0.08% (1%)
[ 212, 213): █████ 0.10% (1%)
[ 213, 214): ██████ 0.11% (1%)
-[ 214, 215): ███████ 0.12% (1%)
-[ 215, 216): ████████ 0.14% (1%)
-[ 216, 217): ███████ 0.14% (2%)
-[ 217, 218): ███████ 0.14% (2%)
-[ 218, 219): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
-[ 219, 220): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
+[ 214, 215): ███████ 0.13% (1%)
+[ 215, 216): ████████ 0.15% (1%)
+[ 216, 217): ████████ 0.14% (2%)
+[ 217, 218): ████████ 0.15% (2%)
+[ 218, 219): █████████ 0.17% (2%)
+[ 219, 220): ███████████ 0.19% (2%)
[ 220, 221): ██████████ 0.18% (2%)
[ 221, 222): ███████████ 0.20% (2%)
-[ 222, 223): ████████████ 0.22% (3%)
+[ 222, 223): ████████████ 0.21% (3%)
[ 223, 224): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
-[ 224, 225): ██████████████ 0.26% (3%)
-[ 225, 226): ███████████████ 0.28% (3%)
-[ 226, 227): ███████████████ 0.26% (4%)
-[ 227, 228): ███████████████ 0.28% (4%)
-[ 228, 229): ████████████████████ 0.36% (4%)
+[ 224, 225): ██████████████ 0.25% (3%)
+[ 225, 226): ███████████████ 0.27% (3%)
+[ 226, 227): ███████████████ 0.27% (4%)
+[ 227, 228): ████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
+[ 228, 229): █████████████████████ 0.37% (4%)
[ 229, 230): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (5%)
-[ 230, 231): █████████████████████ 0.37% (5%)
-[ 231, 232): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
-[ 232, 233): ███████████████████████ 0.40% (6%)
-[ 233, 234): █████████████████████████ 0.45% (6%)
+[ 230, 231): ████████████████████ 0.36% (5%)
+[ 231, 232): ████████████████████ 0.35% (5%)
+[ 232, 233): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (6%)
+[ 233, 234): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (6%)
[ 234, 235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.53% (7%)
[ 235, 236): ███████████████████████████████ 0.54% (7%)
-[ 236, 237): ██████████████████████████ 0.46% (8%)
-[ 237, 238): ██████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%)
-[ 238, 239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (9%)
+[ 236, 237): ████████████████████████████ 0.50% (8%)
+[ 237, 238): ███████████████████████████ 0.47% (8%)
+[ 238, 239): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (9%)
[ 239, 240): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (10%)
-[ 240, 241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.69% (10%)
-[ 241, 242): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (11%)
-[ 242, 243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.64% (12%)
-[ 243, 244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (12%)
-[ 244, 245): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (13%)
+[ 240, 241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.68% (10%)
+[ 241, 242): ███████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (11%)
+[ 242, 243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (12%)
+[ 243, 244): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (12%)
+[ 244, 245): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (13%)
[ 245, 246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (14%)
-[ 246, 247): ████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (15%)
-[ 247, 248): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%)
-[ 248, 249): █████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (17%)
-[ 249, 250): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.02% (18%)
-[ 250, 251): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (19%)
+[ 246, 247): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (15%)
+[ 247, 248): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.77% (16%)
+[ 248, 249): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (17%)
+[ 249, 250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (18%)
+[ 250, 251): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (19%)
[ 251, 252): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (20%)
-[ 252, 253): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.99% (21%)
-[ 253, 254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (22%)
-[ 254, 255): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (23%)
+[ 252, 253): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (21%)
+[ 253, 254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (22%)
+[ 254, 255): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (23%)
[ 255, 256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (24%)
-[ 256, 257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (26%)
-[ 257, 258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (27%)
-[ 258, 259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (28%)
-[ 259, 260): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%)
-[ 260, 261): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (31%)
-[ 261, 262): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (32%)
-[ 262, 263): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (34%)
-[ 263, 264): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (35%)
-[ 264, 265): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (36%)
-[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (38%)
-[ 266, 267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (40%)
-[ 267, 268): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (41%)
+[ 256, 257): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (26%)
+[ 257, 258): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (27%)
+[ 258, 259): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.20% (28%)
+[ 259, 260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (29%)
+[ 260, 261): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (31%)
+[ 261, 262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (32%)
+[ 262, 263): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (34%)
+[ 263, 264): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (35%)
+[ 264, 265): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (36%)
+[ 265, 266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (38%)
+[ 266, 267): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (40%)
+[ 267, 268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (41%)
[ 268, 269): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (43%)
-[ 269, 270): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (44%)
-[ 270, 271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (46%)
-[ 271, 272): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (48%)
-[ 272, 273): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (49%)
-[ 273, 274): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.52% (51%)
-[ 274, 275): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (52%)
-[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.75% (54%)
-[ 276, 277): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (56%)
-[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (57%)
-[ 278, 279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (59%)
-[ 279, 280): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%)
-[ 280, 281): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.66% (62%)
-[ 281, 282): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (64%)
-[ 282, 283): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (65%)
-[ 283, 284): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (67%)
-[ 284, 285): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (68%)
-[ 285, 286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.61% (70%)
-[ 286, 287): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.42% (71%)
-[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (73%)
-[ 288, 289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.32% (74%)
-[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (75%)
-[ 290, 291): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.45% (77%)
-[ 291, 292): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.36% (78%)
+[ 269, 270): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (44%)
+[ 270, 271): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.60% (46%)
+[ 271, 272): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.68% (48%)
+[ 272, 273): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (49%)
+[ 273, 274): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.53% (51%)
+[ 274, 275): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (52%)
+[ 275, 276): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.73% (54%)
+[ 276, 277): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.63% (56%)
+[ 277, 278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (57%)
+[ 278, 279): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.59% (59%)
+[ 279, 280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.65% (61%)
+[ 280, 281): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67% (62%)
+[ 281, 282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (64%)
+[ 282, 283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.48% (65%)
+[ 283, 284): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (67%)
+[ 284, 285): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (68%)
+[ 285, 286): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (70%)
+[ 286, 287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (71%)
+[ 287, 288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (73%)
+[ 288, 289): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (74%)
+[ 289, 290): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.37% (75%)
+[ 290, 291): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (77%)
+[ 291, 292): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (78%)
[ 292, 293): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.12% (79%)
[ 293, 294): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (81%)
[ 294, 295): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (82%)
-[ 295, 296): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (83%)
-[ 296, 297): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (84%)
-[ 297, 298): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (85%)
-[ 298, 299): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.91% (86%)
+[ 295, 296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (83%)
+[ 296, 297): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.11% (84%)
+[ 297, 298): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.02% (85%)
+[ 298, 299): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (86%)
[ 299, 300): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.95% (87%)
-[ 300, 301): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.03% (88%)
-[ 301, 302): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (89%)
-[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (90%)
-[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (90%)
-[ 304, 305): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (91%)
-[ 305, 306): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%)
-[ 306, 307): ████████████████████████████████████████ 0.70% (93%)
+[ 300, 301): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.06% (88%)
+[ 301, 302): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.88% (89%)
+[ 302, 303): ██████████████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (90%)
+[ 303, 304): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.76% (91%)
+[ 304, 305): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.78% (91%)
+[ 305, 306): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (92%)
+[ 306, 307): █████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (93%)
[ 307, 308): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (93%)
-[ 308, 309): ████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (94%)
+[ 308, 309): ███████████████████████████████ 0.55% (94%)
[ 309, 310): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (94%)
-[ 310, 311): █████████████████████████████████ 0.58% (95%)
+[ 310, 311): ████████████████████████████████ 0.57% (95%)
[ 311, 312): ████████████████████████ 0.43% (95%)
-[ 312, 313): ██████████████████████ 0.40% (96%)
-[ 313, 314): ████████████████████████ 0.43% (96%)
-[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.42% (97%)
-[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.34% (97%)
-[ 316, 317): █████████████████ 0.31% (97%)
-[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.24% (98%)
-[ 318, 319): ██████████████ 0.26% (98%)
-[ 319, 320): █████████████████ 0.31% (98%)
-[ 320, 321): █████████████ 0.24% (98%)
-[ 321, 322): ███████ 0.13% (98%)
+[ 312, 313): ███████████████████████ 0.41% (96%)
+[ 313, 314): ████████████████████████ 0.42% (96%)
+[ 314, 315): ███████████████████████ 0.41% (97%)
+[ 315, 316): ███████████████████ 0.33% (97%)
+[ 316, 317): █████████████████ 0.30% (97%)
+[ 317, 318): █████████████ 0.23% (98%)
+[ 318, 319): ███████████████ 0.26% (98%)
+[ 319, 320): ██████████████████ 0.32% (98%)
+[ 320, 321): █████████████ 0.23% (98%)
+[ 321, 322): ███████ 0.14% (98%)
[ 322, 323): ████████ 0.15% (99%)
[ 323, 324): ██████████ 0.19% (99%)
-[ 324, 325): ██████████ 0.18% (99%)
-[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.16% (99%)
+[ 324, 325): █████████ 0.17% (99%)
+[ 325, 326): ████████ 0.15% (99%)
[ 326, 327): █████ 0.10% (99%)
[ 327, 328): ███ 0.07% (99%)
-[ 328, 329): █████ 0.09% (99%)
+[ 328, 329): ████ 0.09% (99%)
[ 329, 330): ███████ 0.13% (100%)
[ 330, 331): ████ 0.07% (100%)
-[ 331, 332): ██ 0.04% (100%)
+[ 331, 332): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 332, 333): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 333, 334): ███ 0.05% (100%)
[ 334, 335): ███ 0.06% (100%)
[ 335, 336): ██ 0.05% (100%)
[ 336, 337): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 337, 338): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 338, 339): █ 0.03% (100%)
+[ 338, 339): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 339, 340): █ 0.03% (100%)
[ 340, 341): █ 0.02% (100%)
[ 341, 342): 0.01% (100%)
@@ -1009,10 +1009,10 @@ State: West Virginia
[ 343, 344): 0.01% (100%)
[ 344, 345): 0.01% (100%)
[ 345, 346): 0.01% (100%)
-[ 346, 347): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 346, 347): 0.00% (100%)
[ 347, 348): 0.00% (100%)
[ 348, 349): 0.00% (100%)
-[ 349, 350): 0.01% (100%)
+[ 349, 350): 0.00% (100%)
[ 350, 351): 0.00% (100%)
[ 351, 352): 0.00% (100%)
[ 352, 353): 0.00% (100%)
@@ -1063,5 +1063,143 @@ State: West Virginia
[ 397, 398): 0.00% (100%)
[ 398, 399): 0.00% (100%)
[ 399, 400): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 400, 401): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 401, 402): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 402, 403): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 403, 404): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 404, 405): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 405, 406): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 406, 407): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 407, 408): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 408, 409): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 409, 410): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 410, 411): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 411, 412): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 412, 413): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 413, 414): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 414, 415): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 415, 416): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 416, 417): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 417, 418): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 418, 419): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 419, 420): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 420, 421): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 421, 422): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 422, 423): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 423, 424): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 424, 425): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 425, 426): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 426, 427): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 427, 428): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 428, 429): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 429, 430): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 430, 431): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 431, 432): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 432, 433): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 433, 434): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 434, 435): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 435, 436): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 436, 437): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 437, 438): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 438, 439): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 439, 440): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 440, 441): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 441, 442): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 442, 443): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 443, 444): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 444, 445): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 445, 446): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 446, 447): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 447, 448): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 448, 449): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 449, 450): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 450, 451): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 451, 452): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 452, 453): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 453, 454): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 454, 455): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 455, 456): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 456, 457): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 457, 458): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 458, 459): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 459, 460): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 460, 461): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 461, 462): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 462, 463): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 463, 464): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 464, 465): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 465, 466): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 466, 467): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 467, 468): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 468, 469): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 469, 470): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 470, 471): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 471, 472): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 472, 473): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 473, 474): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 474, 475): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 475, 476): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 476, 477): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 477, 478): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 478, 479): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 479, 480): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 480, 481): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 481, 482): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 482, 483): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 483, 484): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 484, 485): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 485, 486): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 486, 487): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 487, 488): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 488, 489): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 489, 490): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 490, 491): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 491, 492): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 492, 493): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 493, 494): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 494, 495): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 495, 496): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 496, 497): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 497, 498): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 498, 499): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 499, 500): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 500, 501): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 501, 502): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 502, 503): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 503, 504): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 504, 505): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 505, 506): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 506, 507): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 507, 508): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 508, 509): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 509, 510): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 510, 511): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 511, 512): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 512, 513): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 513, 514): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 514, 515): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 515, 516): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 516, 517): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 517, 518): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 518, 519): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 519, 520): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 520, 521): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 521, 522): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 522, 523): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 523, 524): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 524, 525): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 525, 526): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 526, 527): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 527, 528): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 528, 529): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 529, 530): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 530, 531): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 531, 532): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 532, 533): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 533, 534): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 534, 535): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 535, 536): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 536, 537): 0.00% (100%)
+[ 537, 538): 0.00% (100%)
-% republicans: 0.557333
+% republicans: 0.557435
