commit 1c1c32a83de96680714a3dfa010837bf136e05d9
parent a4c01576cbe9bf21565132484277a378f9ae9ff6
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 15:07:21 -0400
finish state printing function
Diffstat:
| M | main.go | | | 54 | +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++--------------- |
1 file changed, 39 insertions(+), 15 deletions(-)
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -251,14 +251,45 @@ func printStates(states []State) {
fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
- // fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
+ p_baserate_republican := 0.0
+ for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
+ if party == "R" {
+ p_baserate_republican++
+ }
+ }
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate of R win: %f", p_baserate_republican)
+
+ // Individual poll
for _, poll := range state.Polls {
p_republican_win_poll := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", poll)
fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win_poll)
}
+ // Aggregate poll
+ num_biden_votes := 0.0
+ num_trump_votes := 0.0
+ for _, poll := range state.Polls {
+ biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
+ trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
+ if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
+ panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
+ }
+ num_biden_votes += (biden_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+ num_trump_votes += (trump_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+ }
+ aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
+ if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
+ var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+
+ p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregate poll: %+v", aggregate_poll)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\t\tAggregate Poll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win_aggregate_polls)
+ }
+
}
}
@@ -325,23 +356,14 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
- aggregate_trump_share := num_trump_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
- aggregate_biden_share := num_biden_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
-
- std_mean_aggregate_polls := math.Sqrt((aggregate_trump_share * aggregate_biden_share) / aggregate_sample_size)
- p_republican_aggregate_polls := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_mean_aggregate_polls)
-
- if dev {
- fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_aggregate_polls)
- }
+ var aggregate_poll = Poll{SampleSize: int(aggregate_sample_size), PollResults: make(map[string]float64)}
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults["Biden"] = 100.0 * num_biden_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+ aggregate_poll.PollResults["Trump"] = 100.0 * num_trump_votes / aggregate_sample_size
+ p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll)
weight_polls := 1.0
- p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican
-
+ p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican
}
- if dev {
- fmt.Printf("\n\tHistorical base rate: %f", p_baserate_republican)
- }
if r.Float64() < p_republican {
return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
} else {
@@ -379,6 +401,8 @@ func main() {
n_sims := 10_000
+ printStates(states)
+
p_republicans := 0.0
for i := 0; i < n_sims; i++ {
result := simulateElection(states)
