commit a4c01576cbe9bf21565132484277a378f9ae9ff6
parent 693538cdca3e02e272c43376f87314ea025d85b5
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 14:46:45 -0400
continue building print state function
Diffstat:
| M | main.go | | | 91 | +++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-------------------------------- |
1 file changed, 54 insertions(+), 37 deletions(-)
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -163,6 +163,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
// Add the aggregated poll data to the respective states
for state_name, polls := range state_polls_map {
+ // Filter polls by recency and by having both Biden and Trump
var recent_polls []Poll
for _, poll := range polls {
if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) {
@@ -218,19 +219,52 @@ func getProbabilityAboveX(x float64, mean float64, std float64) float64 {
return 1 - getNormalCDF(x, mean, std)
}
-func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPoll(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size float64) float64 {
+func getChanceCandidateWinsFromPollShare(candidate_p float64, poll_sample_size float64) float64 {
std := math.Sqrt(candidate_p * (1 - candidate_p) / poll_sample_size) // https://stats.stackexchange.com/questions/258879/how-to-interpret-margin-of-error-in-a-non-binary-poll
return getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, candidate_p, std)
}
-/* Sample state by state */
-func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
- if dev {
+func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll Poll) float64 {
+
+ biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
+ trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
+ if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
+ panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
+ }
+ biden_share := biden_percentage / 100.0 // will panic if the item is not found, but we've previously filtered for it
+ trump_share := trump_percentage / 100.0
+
+ normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
+ normalized_biden_share := biden_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
+
+ joint_trump_biden_sample_size := (biden_share + trump_share) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+ std_error_poll_mean := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
+
+ p_republican_win := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_error_poll_mean)
+ return p_republican_win
+
+}
+
+/* Print state by state data */
+func printStates(states []State) {
+ for _, state := range states {
fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
// fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
+
+ for _, poll := range state.Polls {
+ p_republican_win_poll := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", poll)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_win_poll)
+ }
+
}
+
+}
+
+/* Sample state by state */
+func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
switch state.Name {
case "Nebraska":
/*
@@ -277,48 +311,31 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
/* Consider polls */
num_biden_votes := 0.0
num_trump_votes := 0.0
- for _, recent_biden_trump_poll := range state.Polls {
- biden_share := 0.0
- trump_share := 0.0
- for candidate_name, candidate_percentage := range recent_biden_trump_poll.PollResults {
- if candidate_name == "Biden" {
- biden_share = candidate_percentage / 100
- } else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
- trump_share = candidate_percentage / 100
- }
- }
- sample_size := float64(recent_biden_trump_poll.SampleSize)
- poll_biden_votes := biden_share * sample_size
- poll_trump_votes := trump_share * sample_size
- joint_trump_biden_sample_size := poll_biden_votes + poll_trump_votes
- normalized_trump_share := trump_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
- normalized_biden_share := biden_share / (trump_share + biden_share)
- std_poll := math.Sqrt((normalized_trump_share * normalized_biden_share) / joint_trump_biden_sample_size)
-
- p_trump_more_votes := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, normalized_trump_share, std_poll)
- if dev {
- fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_biden_trump_poll)
- fmt.Printf("\n\t\tPoll says chance of R win: %f", p_trump_more_votes)
- }
+ for _, poll := range state.Polls {
+ // p_republican_win_poll = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(poll)
- // Update general tally
- num_biden_votes += poll_biden_votes
- num_trump_votes += poll_trump_votes
+ biden_percentage, biden_exists := poll.PollResults["Biden"]
+ trump_percentage, trump_exists := poll.PollResults["Trump"]
+ if !biden_exists || !trump_exists {
+ panic("PollResults of poll filtered to have Biden/Trump doesn't have Biden/Trump")
+ }
+ num_biden_votes += (biden_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
+ num_trump_votes += (trump_percentage / 100.0) * float64(poll.SampleSize)
}
- total_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
- if total_sample_size != 0.0 {
+
+ aggregate_sample_size := num_biden_votes + num_trump_votes
+ if aggregate_sample_size != 0.0 {
aggregate_trump_share := num_trump_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
aggregate_biden_share := num_biden_votes / (num_trump_votes + num_biden_votes)
- std_all_polls := math.Sqrt((aggregate_trump_share * aggregate_biden_share) / total_sample_size)
-
- p_republican_according_to_polls := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_all_polls)
+ std_mean_aggregate_polls := math.Sqrt((aggregate_trump_share * aggregate_biden_share) / aggregate_sample_size)
+ p_republican_aggregate_polls := getProbabilityAboveX(0.5, aggregate_trump_share, std_mean_aggregate_polls)
if dev {
- fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_according_to_polls)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tAggregating all polls naïvely says chance of R win: %f", p_republican_aggregate_polls)
}
weight_polls := 1.0
- p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_according_to_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican
+ p_republican = weight_polls*p_republican_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican
}
