2024-election-modelling

commit ca7401a6edc20cc65e96ac0241ee6a192018f779
parent e25942b2c30eb1b4dee31049a7f9c42dc09b074a
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date:   Sun, 14 Apr 2024 09:58:18 -0400

add poll time

Diffstat:
M
README.md
 | 
5
+++--
M
main.go
 | 
46
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------------------

2 files changed, 31 insertions(+), 20 deletions(-)
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -32,8 +32,9 @@ Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions u
 
 ## Second round: just consider polls
 
-- [ ] Download and format
-- [ ] Read
+- [x] Download and format
+- [x] Read
+- [ ] Add date of poll
 - [ ] Consider what the standards error should be 
 - [ ] Aggregate polls?
 - [ ] Exclude polls older than one month?
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -6,15 +6,16 @@ import (
 	rand "math/rand/v2"
 	"os"
 	"strconv"
+	"time"
 	// "strings"
 )
 
 /* Structs */
 type State struct {
-	Name                       string
-	Votes                      int
-	VictoriousPartyPerElection map[string]string
-	Polls                      []Poll
+	Name                         string
+	Votes                        int
+	PresidentialElectoralHistory map[string]string
+	Polls                        []Poll
 }
 
 type VotesForEachParty struct {
@@ -26,6 +27,7 @@ type Poll struct {
 	PollId      string
 	SampleSize  int
 	PollResults map[string]float64
+	Date        time.Time
 }
 
 // type src = *rand.Rand
@@ -60,7 +62,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 		}
 		state := csv_record[0]
 		if _, exists := states[state]; !exists {
-			states[state] = State{Name: state, Votes: votes, VictoriousPartyPerElection: make(map[string]string)}
+			states[state] = State{Name: state, Votes: votes, PresidentialElectoralHistory: make(map[string]string)}
 		}
 	}
 
@@ -87,7 +89,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 				continue // State not found in votes map, skip
 			}
 			// Update the party winning in the specific year
-			data.VictoriousPartyPerElection[year] = party
+			data.PresidentialElectoralHistory[year] = party
 			states[state] = data
 		}
 
@@ -115,17 +117,24 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 		if err != nil {
 			break // EOF or an error
 		}
-		state_name := record[12]
-		// fmt.Printf("State: %s", state_name)
+
 		poll_id := record[0]
+		state_name := record[12]
+		candidate_name := record[44]
+		end_date := record[14]
 
-		sampleSize, err := strconv.Atoi(record[22])
+		date_layout := "1/2/06"
+		parsed_date, err := time.Parse(date_layout, end_date)
+		if err != nil {
+			fmt.Println("Error parsing date: ", err)
+		}
+
+		sample_size, err := strconv.Atoi(record[22])
 		if err != nil {
 			continue // If error, skip this record
 		}
 
-		candidateName := record[44]
-		pct, err := strconv.ParseFloat(record[47], 64) // pct is in the 42nd column
+		percentage, err := strconv.ParseFloat(record[47], 64) // percentage is in the 42nd column
 		if err != nil {
 			fmt.Printf("Error parsing percentage")
 			continue // If error, skip this record
@@ -139,11 +148,12 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 		if !exists {
 			poll = Poll{
 				PollId:      poll_id,
-				SampleSize:  sampleSize,
+				SampleSize:  sample_size,
 				PollResults: make(map[string]float64),
+				Date:        parsed_date,
 			}
 		}
-		poll.PollResults[candidateName] = pct
+		poll.PollResults[candidate_name] = percentage
 		tmp_polls[state_name][poll_id] = poll
 	}
 
@@ -177,7 +187,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 }
 
 func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
-	fmt.Printf("%s\n\n", state)
+
 	switch state.Name {
 	case "Nebraska":
 		// 2000: R
@@ -208,12 +218,12 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 	default:
 		{
 			p_republican := 0.0
-			for _, party := range state.VictoriousPartyPerElection {
+			for _, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
 				if party == "R" {
 					p_republican++
 				}
 			}
-			p_republican = p_republican / float64(len(state.VictoriousPartyPerElection))
+			p_republican = p_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory))
 			if r.Float64() < p_republican {
 				return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
 			} else {
@@ -227,12 +237,12 @@ func simulateElection(states []State) int {
 
 	republican_seats := 0
 	for _, state := range states {
-		// fmt.Printf("%s\n", state)
+		fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s\n\tVotes: %d\n\tHistory: %s\n\tPolls: %s", state.Name, state.Votes, state.PresidentialElectoralHistory, state.Polls)
 		election_sample := sampleFromState(state)
 		republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans
 		/*
 			fmt.Printf("%s: Votes: %d,\n\tWinners: ", state.Name, state.Votes)
-			for year, party := range state.VictoriousPartyPerElection {
+			for year, party := range state.PresidentialElectoralHistory {
 				fmt.Printf("[%s: %s] ", year, party)
 			}