commit ad81189e99de001bcb111ba4629a023e552e893c
parent af061d687129d2d00d31f1bfc82f597af788c579
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 16:01:34 -0400
remove histogram from readme & continue
Diffstat:
| M | README.md | | | 189 | ++++++------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| M | main.go | | | 13 | ++++++++----- |
| M | makefile | | | 3 | +++ |
| M | output.txt | | | 1501 | ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++--------------------------------------- |
4 files changed, 776 insertions(+), 930 deletions(-)
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -2,187 +2,20 @@
## About
-This is a simple model of the US electoral college. It aims to be conceptually simple and replicable. Currently, it incorporates data from the electoral history in each state, since the 2000 election, as well as polls, if they exist.
+This is a simple model of the US electoral college. It aims to be conceptually simple and replicatable. Currently, it incorporates data from the electoral history in each state, since the 2000 election, as well as states-specific polls, if they exist.
-Other projects, like [538](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight), [Nate Silver's substack](https://www.natesilver.net/) or [Gelman's model](https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model) are to this project as a sportscar is to a walking stick. They are much more sophisticated, and probably more accurate. However, they are also more difficult to understand and to design.
-
-## A cool histogram
-
-```
-
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-
-```
+Other projects, like [538](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FiveThirtyEight), [Nate Silver's substack](https://www.natesilver.net/) or [Gelman's model](https://github.com/TheEconomist/us-potus-model) are to this project as a sportscar is to a walking stick. They are much more sophisticated, and probably more accurate. However, they are also more difficult to understand and to maintain.
## How to run
### Prerequisites
-This model is written in go, an elegant language developed by Rob Pike, Ken Thompson and Robert Griesemer at Google. You can find installation instructions for all major platforms [here](https://go.dev/dl/). The website this
+This model is written in go, an elegant language developed by Rob Pike, Ken Thompson and Robert Griesemer at Google. You can find installation instructions for all major platforms [here](https://go.dev/dl/). In addition, it uses git for distribution. You can find installation instructions for git [here](https://git-scm.com/downloads).
-Once you have go and git, you install the model with
+You can thus get the model with:
```
-git clone [repo]
+git clone https://git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/2024-election-modelling
cd 2024-election-modelling
go install
```
@@ -242,14 +75,18 @@ What's happening here is that:
### To do
-- [ ] Print states & polls separately
-- [ ] Add graphs
+- [ ] Share with Samotsvety
+- [ ] Think about next steps
- [ ] Consider conditional probabilities
- See how other models account for the correlation
- [ ] Add uncertainty using Laplace's law of succession?
- Maybe only do this for contested states? Alabama is not going to turn Democratic?
- [ ] Exclude partisan polls => not that many of them
-- [ ] Histogram distributions of electoral college votes
+- [ ] Think about whether I want to monetize this
+ - Maybe with Vox?
+ - Otherwise: add MIT license & publish
+- [ ] Think about whether I want to add other collaborators
+ - If so, add contribution sections, make available on github
### Done
@@ -274,3 +111,5 @@ Consider polls:
General
- [x] Work on README
+- [x] Print states & polls separately
+- [x] Histogram distributions of electoral college votes
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -407,10 +407,13 @@ func printElectoralCollegeHistogram(samples []int) {
}
}
+ cp := 0.0
for i, count := range histogram {
- bar_length := (count * 100) / max_count // Assuming max_count bar length is 50 characters
+ bar_length := (count * 75) / max_count // Assuming max_count bar length is 50 characters
p := float64(count) / float64(len(samples)) * 100
- fmt.Printf("[ %2d, %4d): %s %.2f%%\n", i, i+1, barString(bar_length), p)
+ cp += p
+
+ fmt.Printf("[ %2d, %4d): %s %.2f%% (%.0f%%)\n", i, i+1, barString(bar_length), p, cp)
}
}
@@ -422,9 +425,10 @@ func main() {
return
}
- n_sims := 1_000_000
+ n_sims := 100_000
printStates(states)
+ fmt.Printf("\n\n")
p_republicans := 0.0
results := make([]int, n_sims)
@@ -434,10 +438,9 @@ func main() {
if republican_seats >= 270 {
p_republicans++
}
- // fmt.Printf("%d - %t\n", republican_seats, republican_seats >= 270)
}
p_republicans = p_republicans / float64(n_sims)
- fmt.Printf("\n\n\n%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans)
+ fmt.Printf("\n%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans)
printElectoralCollegeHistogram(results)
}
diff --git a/makefile b/makefile
@@ -1,3 +1,6 @@
+run:
+ go run main.go
+
polls:
mkdir -p data/polls
# cd data/polls && wget https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/data/president_polls.csv
diff --git a/output.txt b/output.txt
@@ -1,49 +1,6 @@
+go run main.go
-State: Iowa
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 3.000000
-
-State: Michigan
- Votes: 15
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
- Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461
- Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
- Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
- Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
- Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3840 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76914080521717 Trump:52.23085919478282] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176
-
-State: Missouri
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-
-State: Vermont
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Arkansas
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-
-State: Hawaii
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
State: Texas
Votes: 40
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
@@ -55,18 +12,18 @@ State: Texas
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1867 PollResults:map[Biden:44.134784285163455 Trump:55.865215714836545] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
-State: West Virginia
- Votes: 4
+State: Alaska
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: South Carolina
- Votes: 9
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+State: Indiana
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000
-State: South Dakota
- Votes: 3
+State: Missouri
+ Votes: 10
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
@@ -84,61 +41,30 @@ State: Nevada
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:552 PollResults:map[Biden:47.82608695652174 Trump:52.17391304347826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.846722
-State: Oregon
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Wisconsin
- Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+State: New Mexico
+ Votes: 5
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
- Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
-State: Alaska
+State: South Dakota
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: Kansas
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-
-State: Indiana
+State: Massachusetts
Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000
-
-State: Delaware
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Illinois
- Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
-State: Mississippi
- Votes: 6
+State: Alabama
+ Votes: 9
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: Washington
- Votes: 12
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
-
State: California
Votes: 54
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
@@ -148,21 +74,19 @@ State: California
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:921 PollResults:map[Biden:63.52941176470588 Trump:36.470588235294116] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
-State: Florida
- Votes: 30
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+State: Colorado
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
-State: Idaho
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+State: Connecticut
+ Votes: 7
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
State: Kentucky
Votes: 8
@@ -174,67 +98,179 @@ State: Maine
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: New Hampshire
- Votes: 4
- History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+State: Maryland
+ Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: New York
- Votes: 28
+State: Ohio
+ Votes: 17
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000
+
+State: Vermont
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: North Dakota
+State: Washington
+ Votes: 12
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86605 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:37] Date:2024-03-21 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:510 PollResults:map[Biden:56.470588235294116 Trump:43.529411764705884] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.001603
+
+State: Wyoming
Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: Colorado
+State: District of Columbia
+ Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Minnesota
Votes: 10
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86601 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:49 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.003495
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:556 PollResults:map[Biden:55.68181818181817 Trump:44.31818181818181] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.003499
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
-State: Connecticut
- Votes: 7
+State: New Hampshire
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Rhode Island
+ Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Wyoming
+State: Arizona
+ Votes: 11
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
+ Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
+ Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
+ Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.610814475803025 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
+
+State: Arkansas
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+
+State: Delaware
Votes: 3
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Kansas
+ Votes: 6
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: Maryland
+State: Michigan
+ Votes: 15
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86531 SampleSize:616 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.710604
+ Poll: {PollId:86511 SampleSize:627 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6 Stein:1 Trump:44 West:1] Date:2024-03-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.705461
+ Poll: {PollId:86502 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.6 Kennedy:4.6 Stein:1 Trump:44.6 West:0.6 Whitmer:49.5] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.914951
+ Poll: {PollId:86509 SampleSize:1097 PollResults:map[Biden:34 Kennedy:18 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.989769
+ Poll: {PollId:86584 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:12 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.777089
+ Poll: {PollId:86603 SampleSize:709 PollResults:map[Biden:39.8 Kennedy:8.8 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-28 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.825645
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3840 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76914080521717 Trump:52.23085919478282] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.997176
+
+State: Mississippi
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+
+State: Utah
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+
+State: Idaho
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+
+State: Louisiana
+ Votes: 8
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+
+State: West Virginia
+ Votes: 4
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+
+State: Wisconsin
Votes: 10
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86503 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.6 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:1 Trump:43.4 West:0.6] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.906647
+ Poll: {PollId:86588 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1382 PollResults:map[Biden:48.62518089725036 Trump:51.37481910274964] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.846745
+
+State: Oregon
+ Votes: 8
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-State: Massachusetts
- Votes: 11
+State: Florida
+ Votes: 30
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86529 SampleSize:875 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:46] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.987888
+ Poll: {PollId:86634 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:1.1 Trump:49.2 West:0.5] Date:2024-04-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1581 PollResults:map[Biden:43.4487118697645 Trump:56.5512881302355] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
+
+State: Hawaii
+ Votes: 4
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86630 SampleSize:1002 PollResults:map[Biden:46 Kennedy:9 Trump:28 West:1] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:741 PollResults:map[Biden:62.16216216216216 Trump:37.83783783783784] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
+
+State: Iowa
+ Votes: 6
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 3.000000
State: Montana
Votes: 4
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: New Jersey
- Votes: 14
+State: New York
+ Votes: 28
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
State: North Carolina
Votes: 16
@@ -242,12 +278,12 @@ State: North Carolina
Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000
Poll: {PollId:86632 SampleSize:1401 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:12 Stein:3 Trump:41 West:3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Poll says chance of R win: 0.896934
- Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
Poll: {PollId:86641 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:7.3 Trump:43.3] Date:2024-04-08 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Poll says chance of R win: 0.877508
Poll: {PollId:86640 SampleSize:1016 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Trump:45] Date:2024-03-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Poll says chance of R win: 0.847509
+ Poll: {PollId:86585 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:10 Mapstead:2 Stein:3 Trump:49 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.937673
Poll: {PollId:86532 SampleSize:642 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Poll says chance of R win: 0.868764
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3562 PollResults:map[Biden:47.75480991874711 Trump:52.2451900812529] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
@@ -258,15 +294,22 @@ State: Oklahoma
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: District of Columbia
- Votes: 3
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
-
-State: Louisiana
- Votes: 8
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+State: Pennsylvania
+ Votes: 19
+ History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
+ Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
+ Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
+ Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
+ Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.500940364547446] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
State: Tennessee
Votes: 11
@@ -277,625 +320,583 @@ State: Tennessee
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:711 PollResults:map[Biden:34.24657534246575 Trump:65.75342465753425] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
-State: Utah
- Votes: 6
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
+State: Virginia
+ Votes: 13
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000
State: Georgia
Votes: 16
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
Poll: {PollId:86530 SampleSize:760 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:6 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Poll says chance of R win: 0.815304
+ Poll: {PollId:86583 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:8 Mapstead:4 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.603582
Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1168 PollResults:map[Biden:48.767123287671225 Trump:51.23287671232877] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.800373
-State: Minnesota
- Votes: 10
+State: Illinois
+ Votes: 19
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86625 SampleSize:608 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Trump:42] Date:2024-04-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.297389
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:522 PollResults:map[Biden:51.16279069767442 Trump:48.83720930232558] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.297544
-
-State: New Mexico
- Votes: 5
- History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
-
-State: Ohio
- Votes: 17
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
- Historical base rate of R win: 4.000000
-
-State: Pennsylvania
- Votes: 19
- History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86604 SampleSize:431 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:3 Trump:40] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.323239
- Poll: {PollId:86587 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Mapstead:2 Stein:4 Trump:47 West:3] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.779572
- Poll: {PollId:86533 SampleSize:775 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.817645
- Poll: {PollId:86624 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:7 Trump:41] Date:2024-03-26 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.178543
- Poll: {PollId:86510 SampleSize:1132 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:16 Trump:40 West:4] Date:2024-03-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.777019
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3121 PollResults:map[Biden:49.49905963545254 Trump:50.50094036454745] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.712171
-State: Rhode Island
- Votes: 4
+State: New Jersey
+ Votes: 14
History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
+ Poll: {PollId:86576 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7.5 Stein:0.8 Trump:35.8 West:1.2] Date:2024-03-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
+ Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:768 PollResults:map[Biden:53.385416666666664 Trump:46.614583333333336] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
+ Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.030006
-State: Alabama
- Votes: 9
+State: North Dakota
+ Votes: 3
History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-State: Arizona
- Votes: 11
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 5.000000
- Poll: {PollId:86577 SampleSize:503 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:39] Date:2024-03-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.781580
- Poll: {PollId:86582 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:11 Mapstead:3 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-03-24 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.903248
- Poll: {PollId:86528 SampleSize:516 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:7 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.770234
- Poll: {PollId:86492 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:33 Kennedy:18 Trump:37 West:2] Date:2024-03-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
- Poll says chance of R win: 0.879601
- Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1769 PollResults:map[Biden:47.61081447580304 Trump:52.38918552419697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
- Aggregate Poll says chance of R win: 0.977893
-
-State: Virginia
- Votes: 13
- History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
- Historical base rate of R win: 2.000000
+State: South Carolina
+ Votes: 9
+ History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
+ Historical base rate of R win: 6.000000
-% republicans: 0.630261
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-[ 254, 255): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05%
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-[ 286, 287): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.67%
-[ 287, 288): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.83%
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-[ 303, 304): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.84%
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-[ 305, 306): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.90%
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-[ 457, 458): 0.00%
-[ 458, 459): 0.00%
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