2024-election-modelling

commit 9ca60febacc9c88aba7082d9f097eda2b6197658
parent d1dc3a5e750e09ea4815acd987e8a4720d4e83ca
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date:   Sat, 13 Apr 2024 15:52:39 -0400

add simulate election function; consider Maine and Nebraska separately

Diffstat:
A
data/results/src.txt
 | 
3
+++
M
main.go
 | 
72
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++-----------

2 files changed, 64 insertions(+), 11 deletions(-)
diff --git a/data/results/src.txt b/data/results/src.txt
@@ -0,0 +1,3 @@
+https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/2020
+https://www.archives.gov/electoral-college/[year]
+
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -21,7 +21,7 @@ type VotesForEachParty struct {
 	Republicans int
 }
 
-type src = *rand.Rand
+// type src = *rand.Rand
 
 /* Globals */
 var r = rand.New(rand.NewPCG(uint64(1), uint64(2)))
@@ -97,9 +97,31 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 	switch state.Name {
 	case "Nebraska":
-		return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 0}
+		// 2000: R
+		// 2004: R
+		// 2008: Split, 1 D, 4 R
+		// 2012: R
+		// 2016: R
+		// 2020: Split, 1 D, 4 R
+		p_split := float64(2 / 6)
+		if r.Float64() < p_split {
+			return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 4}
+		} else {
+			return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: 5}
+		}
 	case "Maine":
-		return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 0}
+		// 2000: D
+		// 2004: D
+		// 2008: D
+		// 2012: D
+		// 2016: Split: 3 D, 1 R
+		// 2020: Split, 3 D, 1 R
+		p_split := float64(2 / 6)
+		if r.Float64() < p_split {
+			return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 3, Republicans: 1}
+		} else {
+			return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 0}
+		}
 	default:
 		{
 			p_republican := 0.0
@@ -118,6 +140,32 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 	}
 }
 
+func simulateElection(states []State) int {
+
+	republican_seats := 0
+	for _, state := range states {
+		election_sample := sampleFromState(state)
+		republican_seats += election_sample.Republicans
+		/*
+			fmt.Printf("%s: Votes: %d,\n\tWinners: ", state.Name, state.Votes)
+			for year, party := range state.VictoriousPartyPerElection {
+				fmt.Printf("[%s: %s] ", year, party)
+			}
+
+			fmt.Printf("\n\tSample: Democrat seats: %d, Republican seats: %d", election_sample.Democrats, election_sample.Republicans)
+			fmt.Println()
+		*/
+	}
+
+	// fmt.Printf("\nDemocrat seats: %d\n", republican_seats)
+	if republican_seats > 270 {
+		return 1
+	} else {
+		return 0
+	}
+
+}
+
 func main() {
 	states, err := readStates()
 	if err != nil {
@@ -125,15 +173,17 @@ func main() {
 		return
 	}
 
-	for _, state := range states {
-		fmt.Printf("%s: Votes: %d,\n\tWinners: ", state.Name, state.Votes)
-		for year, party := range state.VictoriousPartyPerElection {
-			fmt.Printf("[%s: %s] ", year, party)
-		}
-		election_sample := sampleFromState(state)
-		fmt.Printf("\n\tSample: Democrat seats: %d, Republican seats: %d", election_sample.Democrats, election_sample.Republicans)
-		fmt.Println()
+	n_sims := 100_000
 
+	p_republicans := 0.0
+	for _ = range n_sims {
+		result := simulateElection(states)
+		fmt.Printf("Election result: %d\n", result)
+		if result == 1 {
+			p_republicans++
+		}
 	}
+	p_republicans = p_republicans / float64(n_sims)
+	fmt.Printf("%% republicans: %f\n", p_republicans)
 
 }