commit 224db1ddfda04c1c91d6e6dc907eb34bfeca930f
parent 6dddb42899370996314c958fab92fe0d982729bd
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date: Sun, 14 Apr 2024 10:34:58 -0400
continue processing polls, tweak README
Diffstat:
| M | README.md | | | 13 | ++++++++++--- |
| M | main.go | | | 47 | ++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++------- |
2 files changed, 50 insertions(+), 10 deletions(-)
diff --git a/README.md b/README.md
@@ -30,14 +30,21 @@ When Democrats won with Obama, they won by a lot, whereas when Republicans won w
Remedy: consider the conditional probabilities? But how? Or, relax assumptions using Laplace's law?
+- [ ] Consider conditional probabilities
+ - See how other models account for the correlation
+- [ ] Add uncertainty using Laplace's law of succession?
+ - Maybe only do this for contested states? Alabama is not going to turn Democratic?
+
## Second round: just consider polls
- [x] Download and format
- [x] Read
-- [ ] Add date of poll
+- [x] Add date of poll
- [ ] Consider what the standards error should be
+- [ ] Consider how to aggregate polls?
+ - One extreme: Just look at the most recent one
+ - [x] Another extreme: Aggregate very naïvely, add up all samples together?
- [ ] Aggregate polls?
- [ ] Exclude polls older than one month?
+- [ ] Exclude partisan polls
- [ ] ...
-
-## Third
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -190,7 +190,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
fmt.Printf("\n\nState: %s", state.Name)
fmt.Printf("\n\tVotes: %d", state.Votes)
fmt.Printf("\n\tHistory: %s", state.PresidentialElectoralHistory)
- fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
+ // fmt.Printf("\n\tPolls: %s", state.Polls)
switch state.Name {
case "Nebraska":
@@ -233,11 +233,6 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
}
}
p_republican = p_republican / float64(len(state.PresidentialElectoralHistory))
- if r.Float64() < p_republican {
- return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
- } else {
- return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: state.Votes, Republicans: 0}
- }
/* Considering polls */
var recent_polls []Poll
@@ -246,7 +241,45 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
}
}
- return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 1, Republicans: 1}
+
+ var recent_biden_trump_polls []Poll
+ for _, recent_poll := range recent_polls {
+ has_biden := false
+ has_trump := false
+ for candidate_name, _ := range recent_poll.PollResults {
+ if candidate_name == "Biden" {
+ has_biden = true
+ } else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
+ has_trump = true
+ }
+ }
+ if has_biden && has_trump {
+ recent_biden_trump_polls = append(recent_biden_trump_polls, recent_poll)
+ }
+ fmt.Printf("\n\tPoll: %+v", recent_poll)
+ }
+
+ num_biden_votes := 0.0
+ num_trump_votes := 0.0
+ for _, recent_biden_trump_poll := range recent_biden_trump_polls {
+ biden_percentage := 0.0
+ trump_percentage := 0.0
+ for candidate_name, candidate_percentage := range recent_biden_trump_poll.PollResults {
+ if candidate_name == "Biden" {
+ biden_percentage = candidate_percentage
+ } else if candidate_name == "Trump" {
+ trump_percentage = candidate_percentage
+ }
+ }
+ num_biden_votes += biden_percentage * float64(recent_biden_trump_poll.SampleSize)
+ num_trump_votes += trump_percentage * float64(recent_biden_trump_poll.SampleSize)
+ }
+
+ if r.Float64() < p_republican {
+ return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: 0, Republicans: state.Votes}
+ } else {
+ return VotesForEachParty{Democrats: state.Votes, Republicans: 0}
+ }
}
}
}
