2024-election-modelling

commit 060b9725ee2cfa53b5ba1dbd52355774769cbd0e
parent 9c5d99a32656e0612fd500afc7135823678eb3ad
Author: NunoSempere <nuno.semperelh@protonmail.com>
Date:   Sun, 23 Jun 2024 18:18:42 -0400

extract key judgmental variables into core/main.go

Diffstat:
A
core/core.go
 | 
5
+++++
M
main.go
 | 
7
++++---

2 files changed, 9 insertions(+), 3 deletions(-)
diff --git a/core/core.go b/core/core.go
@@ -0,0 +1,5 @@
+package core
+
+const Include_polls_within_n_days = 15 //
+const Std_additional_uncertainty = 0.0 // 4.0 / 100.0
+const Weight_polls_vs_baserate = 0.8   // 0.75
diff --git a/main.go b/main.go
@@ -3,6 +3,7 @@ package main
 import (
 	"encoding/csv"
 	"fmt"
+	"git.nunosempere.com/NunoSempere/US-2024/core"
 	"math"
 	rand "math/rand/v2"
 	"os"
@@ -112,7 +113,7 @@ func getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(poll Poll, state State, prett
 			- Increased polarization
 		Also note that the polls already have some error already
 	*/
-	std_additional_uncertainty := 4.0 / 100.0
+	std_additional_uncertainty := core.Std_additional_uncertainty
 
 	if n_republican_win == 0 || n_republican_win == 6 {
 		// if solid states for the last 6 elections
@@ -250,7 +251,7 @@ func sampleFromState(state State) VotesForEachParty {
 				p_republican_win_aggregate_polls := getChanceRepublicanWinFromPollPlusUncertainty(aggregate_poll, state, false)
 				// p_republican_win_aggregate_polls = getChanceRepublicanWinFromPoll(aggregate_poll, false)
 
-				weight_polls := 0.75
+				weight_polls := core.Weight_polls_vs_baserate // 0.75
 				p_republican_win = weight_polls*p_republican_win_aggregate_polls + (1.0-weight_polls)*p_baserate_republican_win
 				// p_republican_win = p_republican_win_aggregate_polls
 			}
@@ -442,7 +443,7 @@ func readStates() ([]State, error) {
 		// Filter polls by recency and by having both Biden and Trump
 		var recent_polls []Poll
 		for _, poll := range polls {
-			if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -30)) {
+			if poll.Date.After(time.Now().AddDate(0, 0, -core.Include_polls_within_n_days)) {
 				recent_polls = append(recent_polls, poll)
 			}
 		}