predict-resolve-tally

Predictions in 57 lines of code
Log | Files | Refs

README.txt (2528B)


      1 # PRT: Predict, Resolve & Tally
      2 
      3 57 lines of code which allow you to make predictions, resolve, and tally them,
      4 without many user niceties. Name inspired by PRT, from the Worm serial
      5 
      6 ## Example of use
      7 
      8 Open a terminal, with Ctrl+Alt+T
      9 
     10 The command predict creates a new prediction:
     11 
     12 $ predict
     13 > Statement: Before 1 July 2020 will SpaceX launch its first crewed mission into orbit?
     14 > Probability (%): 50
     15 > Date of resolution (year/month/day): 2020/07/01
     16 
     17 The command resolve resolves all predictions whose dates have passed.
     18 
     19 $ resolve
     20 Before 10 April 2020 will former Catalan President Carles Puigdemont return to Spain? (2020/04/10)
     21 > (TRUE/FALSE) TRUE
     22 
     23 The command tally tallies how you did for all resolved predictions.
     24 
     25 $ tally
     26 0 to 10 : 0 TRUE and 10 FALSE
     27 10 to 20 : 0 TRUE and 5 FALSE
     28 20 to 30 : 1 TRUE and 3 FALSE
     29 30 to 40 : 2 TRUE and 7 FALSE
     30 40 to 50 : 10 TRUE and 11 FALSE
     31 50 to 60 : 10 TRUE and 10 FALSE
     32 60 to 70 : 7 TRUE and 0 FALSE
     33 70 to 80 : 10 TRUE and 2 FALSE
     34 80 to 90 : 10 TRUE and 1 FALSE
     35 90 to 100 : 1 TRUE and 0 FALSE
     36 
     37 ## Installation
     38 
     39 ### 1. Add the following to your .bashrc
     40 
     41 Copy the contents or source the PRT file to your .bashrc file. For example:
     42 
     43 ```
     44 [ -f /home/nuno/Documents/PRT ] && source /home/nuno/Documents/PRT
     45 ```
     46 
     47 ### 2. Change the directory.
     48 
     49 Change the first 3 lines so that the program uses the directory of your choice. 
     50 For example, in my system they might be:
     51 
     52 ```
     53 pendingPredictions=/home/nuno/Documents/Forecasting/pendingPredictions.txt
     54 pendingPredictionsTemp="${pendingPredictions}.t"
     55 resolvedPredictions=/home/nuno/Documents/Forecasting/resolvedPredictions.txt
     56 ```
     57 
     58 ## Gotchas
     59 
     60 CSV
     61 - Statements, predictions and probabilities are saved, internally, as a csv
     62   file.
     63 - This requires not using commas in your statements
     64 
     65 Dates: 
     66 - Dates are in the year/month/day format, so that they can be compared 
     67   alphanumerically as strings. That is, an earlier date, in this format, would 
     68   come earlier in a dictionary than a later date. 
     69 - 2020/7/1 is not a valid date, because it would come after 2020/10/01. Write 
     70   dates using two digits for both month and dates, like: 2020/07/01.
     71 
     72 Runs using bash. <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bash_(Unix_shell)>
     73 
     74 Windows and Mac are not supported, though you could get this to run there if
     75 you wanted to, through various bash for Windows interpreters, like the one that 
     76 comes with git for Windows <https://git-scm.com/download/win>
     77 
     78 The tally function only accepts predictions with 1% granularity, and it
     79 aggregates them with 10% granularity.