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1 Forecasting Newsletter: December 2021. 2 ------------------------------------- 3 4 ## Highlights 5 - Polymarket [settles with the CFCF for $1.4M](https://www.cftc.gov/PressRoom/PressReleases/8478-22), future uncertain. 6 - Astral Codex Ten gives out $40k to [forecasting projects](https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/acx-grants-results) 7 - Eli Lifland writes *the* reference piece on [bottlenecks to impactful forecasting.](https://forum.effectivealtruism.org/posts/S2vfrZsFHn7Wy4ocm/bottlenecks-to-more-impactful-crowd-forecasting-2) 8 - Google reveals the existence of a gigantic a new [internal prediction market](https://cloud.google.com/blog/topics/solutions-how-tos/design-patterns-in-googles-prediction-market-on-google-cloud) 9 - [Manifold Markets](https://manifold.markets/), a new forecasting platform, appears 10