scratchpad.txt (531B)
1 - Uncertainty due to drift between now and the election 2 - Uncertainty due to difference between last election poll and final vote share 3 - Better prior by incorporating more past elections 4 - Think about how to: 5 - Inject error 6 - Inject correlated error 7 8 --- 9 10 Not as good as gallup. 11 State uncertainty higher than national. 12 Should calculate republican error instead. 13 14 Final error: 15 National drift + state more uncertain than national + not as good as gallup error + idosyncratic state error 16 17 later: error correlated across states 18