2024-election-modelling

A walking stick to Nate Silver's sportscar
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output-2024-06-23.txt (61588B)


      1 
      2 
      3 State: Wisconsin
      4 	Votes: 10
      5 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
      6 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
      7 	Poll: {PollId:87099 SampleSize:338 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:12 Trump:35] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
      8 		Sample size: 253.500000
      9 		Mean R: 46.666667
     10 		Std of mean R: 3.133385
     11 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.143707
     12 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 7.133385
     13 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.320148
     14 	Poll: {PollId:87212 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:6.1 Stein:0.8 Trump:43.8 West:0.4] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     15 		Sample size: 858.000000
     16 		Mean R: 51.048951
     17 		Std of mean R: 1.706596
     18 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.730605
     19 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.706596
     20 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.572920
     21 	Poll: {PollId:87165 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:5 Stein:0 Trump:44 West:0] Date:2024-06-10 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     22 		Sample size: 440.000000
     23 		Mean R: 50.000000
     24 		Std of mean R: 2.383656
     25 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.500000
     26 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.383656
     27 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.500000
     28 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1551 PollResults:map[Biden:49.96455043506284 Trump:50.03544956493716] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     29 		Sample size: 1551.000000
     30 		Mean R: 50.035450
     31 		Std of mean R: 1.269591
     32 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.511138
     33 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.269591
     34 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.502684
     35 
     36 State: Wyoming
     37 	Votes: 3
     38 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     39 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     40 
     41 State: Kentucky
     42 	Votes: 8
     43 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     44 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     45 
     46 State: Maine
     47 	Votes: 4
     48 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:Split 2020:Split]
     49 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     50 
     51 State: New Jersey
     52 	Votes: 14
     53 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     54 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     55 
     56 State: New York
     57 	Votes: 28
     58 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     59 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     60 	Poll: {PollId:87205 SampleSize:805 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:39] Date:2024-06-17 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     61 		Sample size: 692.300000
     62 		Mean R: 45.348837
     63 		Std of mean R: 1.892063
     64 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.006981
     65 		N republican wins: 0
     66 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     67 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.225396
     68 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.074645
     69 	Poll: {PollId:87069 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:55.2 Kennedy:5.7 Stein:0.7 Trump:44.8 West:1.5] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     70 		Sample size: 1000.000000
     71 		Mean R: 44.800000
     72 		Std of mean R: 1.572565
     73 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000472
     74 		N republican wins: 0
     75 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     76 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.905898
     77 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.036770
     78 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1692 PollResults:map[Biden:54.975477161259825 Trump:45.02452283874018] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     79 		Sample size: 1692.000000
     80 		Mean R: 45.024523
     81 		Std of mean R: 1.209508
     82 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000019
     83 		N republican wins: 0
     84 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
     85 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.542842
     86 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.025194
     87 
     88 State: Vermont
     89 	Votes: 3
     90 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
     91 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
     92 
     93 State: Utah
     94 	Votes: 6
     95 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
     96 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
     97 	Poll: {PollId:87132 SampleSize:857 PollResults:map[Biden:20 Kennedy:20 Trump:49] Date:2024-06-07 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
     98 		Sample size: 591.330000
     99 		Mean R: 71.014493
    100 		Std of mean R: 1.865731
    101 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    102 		N republican wins: 6
    103 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    104 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.199064
    105 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 1.000000
    106 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:591 PollResults:map[Biden:28.98550724637681 Trump:71.01449275362319] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    107 		Sample size: 591.000000
    108 		Mean R: 71.014493
    109 		Std of mean R: 1.866252
    110 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    111 		N republican wins: 6
    112 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    113 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.199585
    114 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 1.000000
    115 
    116 State: Alaska
    117 	Votes: 3
    118 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    119 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    120 
    121 State: Colorado
    122 	Votes: 10
    123 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    124 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    125 
    126 State: Delaware
    127 	Votes: 3
    128 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    129 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    130 
    131 State: Florida
    132 	Votes: 30
    133 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    134 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    135 	Poll: {PollId:87147 SampleSize:1050 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Trump:46] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    136 		Sample size: 861.000000
    137 		Mean R: 56.097561
    138 		Std of mean R: 1.691277
    139 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999844
    140 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.691277
    141 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.858002
    142 	Poll: {PollId:87153 SampleSize:883 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:8 Trump:45] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    143 		Sample size: 750.550000
    144 		Mean R: 52.941176
    145 		Std of mean R: 1.821912
    146 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.946773
    147 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.821912
    148 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693288
    149 	Poll: {PollId:87123 SampleSize:1075 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    150 		Sample size: 935.250000
    151 		Mean R: 54.022989
    152 		Std of mean R: 1.629656
    153 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993218
    154 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.629656
    155 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.762574
    156 	Poll: {PollId:87177 SampleSize:432 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    157 		Sample size: 345.600000
    158 		Mean R: 53.750000
    159 		Std of mean R: 2.681997
    160 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.918975
    161 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.681997
    162 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.712673
    163 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2892 PollResults:map[Biden:45.6727976766699 Trump:54.32720232333011] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    164 		Sample size: 2892.000000
    165 		Mean R: 54.327202
    166 		Std of mean R: 0.926272
    167 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
    168 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.926272
    169 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.810135
    170 
    171 State: North Carolina
    172 	Votes: 16
    173 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    174 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    175 	Poll: {PollId:87196 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Trump:45] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    176 		Sample size: 492.000000
    177 		Mean R: 54.878049
    178 		Std of mean R: 2.243421
    179 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.985162
    180 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.243421
    181 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.782690
    182 	Poll: {PollId:87180 SampleSize:534 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:43] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    183 		Sample size: 443.220000
    184 		Mean R: 51.807229
    185 		Std of mean R: 2.373430
    186 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.776803
    187 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.373430
    188 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.611625
    189 	Poll: {PollId:87119 SampleSize:1332 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Trump:48] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    190 		Sample size: 1212.120000
    191 		Mean R: 52.747253
    192 		Std of mean R: 1.433972
    193 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.972307
    194 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.433972
    195 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.693421
    196 	Poll: {PollId:87088 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:44 West:3] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    197 		Sample size: 456.000000
    198 		Mean R: 57.894737
    199 		Std of mean R: 2.312093
    200 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999681
    201 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.312093
    202 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.894484
    203 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2603 PollResults:map[Biden:46.10846066975501 Trump:53.89153933024499] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    204 		Sample size: 2603.000000
    205 		Mean R: 53.891539
    206 		Std of mean R: 0.977043
    207 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999966
    208 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.977043
    209 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.782863
    210 
    211 State: Washington
    212 	Votes: 12
    213 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    214 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    215 
    216 State: Arizona
    217 	Votes: 11
    218 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
    219 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    220 	Poll: {PollId:87219 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:13 Oliver:2 Stein:3 Trump:42] Date:2024-06-20 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    221 		Sample size: 444.000000
    222 		Mean R: 56.756757
    223 		Std of mean R: 2.351129
    224 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.997972
    225 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.351129
    226 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.856306
    227 	Poll: {PollId:87207 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.3 Kennedy:7.7 Stein:1.2 Trump:42.7 West:0.7] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    228 		Sample size: 820.000000
    229 		Mean R: 52.073171
    230 		Std of mean R: 1.744574
    231 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.882653
    232 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.744574
    233 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.640910
    234 	Poll: {PollId:87176 SampleSize:430 PollResults:map[Biden:38 Kennedy:6 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:40] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    235 		Sample size: 335.400000
    236 		Mean R: 51.282051
    237 		Std of mean R: 2.729265
    238 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.680730
    239 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.729265
    240 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.575549
    241 	Poll: {PollId:87125 SampleSize:1095 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:8 Stein:1 Trump:46 West:1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    242 		Sample size: 952.650000
    243 		Mean R: 52.873563
    244 		Std of mean R: 1.617279
    245 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962199
    246 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.617279
    247 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.695520
    248 	Poll: {PollId:87160 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:11 Oliver:0 Stein:3 Trump:50] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    249 		Sample size: 564.000000
    250 		Mean R: 53.191489
    251 		Std of mean R: 2.101087
    252 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.935615
    253 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.101087
    254 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.699548
    255 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3116 PollResults:map[Biden:46.89751448147494 Trump:53.10248551852505] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    256 		Sample size: 3116.000000
    257 		Mean R: 53.102486
    258 		Std of mean R: 0.893992
    259 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999740
    260 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.893992
    261 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.736939
    262 
    263 State: Connecticut
    264 	Votes: 7
    265 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    266 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    267 
    268 State: District of Columbia
    269 	Votes: 3
    270 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    271 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    272 
    273 State: Nevada
    274 	Votes: 6
    275 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    276 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    277 	Poll: {PollId:87208 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:39.1 Kennedy:7.2 Stein:1.6 Trump:42.1 West:1.7] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    278 		Sample size: 812.000000
    279 		Mean R: 51.847291
    280 		Std of mean R: 1.753458
    281 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.853947
    282 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.753458
    283 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.625923
    284 	Poll: {PollId:87124 SampleSize:1069 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:2 Trump:45 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    285 		Sample size: 908.650000
    286 		Mean R: 52.941176
    287 		Std of mean R: 1.655842
    288 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.962153
    289 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.655842
    290 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.698477
    291 	Poll: {PollId:87034 SampleSize:601 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:9 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-05-25 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    292 		Sample size: 546.910000
    293 		Mean R: 51.648352
    294 		Std of mean R: 2.136859
    295 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.779762
    296 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.136859
    297 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.605881
    298 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2267 PollResults:map[Biden:47.76235248460901 Trump:52.237647515391] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    299 		Sample size: 2267.000000
    300 		Mean R: 52.237648
    301 		Std of mean R: 1.049081
    302 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.983536
    303 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.049081
    304 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.671182
    305 
    306 State: New Mexico
    307 	Votes: 5
    308 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    309 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    310 	Poll: {PollId:87195 SampleSize:555 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Trump:41] Date:2024-06-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    311 		Sample size: 493.950000
    312 		Mean R: 46.067416
    313 		Std of mean R: 2.242751
    314 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.039761
    315 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.242751
    316 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.264366
    317 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:493 PollResults:map[Biden:53.93258426966292 Trump:46.06741573033708] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    318 		Sample size: 493.000000
    319 		Mean R: 46.067416
    320 		Std of mean R: 2.244911
    321 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.039906
    322 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.244911
    323 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.264437
    324 
    325 State: Virginia
    326 	Votes: 13
    327 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    328 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.333333
    329 	Poll: {PollId:87122 SampleSize:1107 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:9 Stein:2 Trump:41 West:2] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    330 		Sample size: 918.810000
    331 		Mean R: 49.397590
    332 		Std of mean R: 1.649399
    333 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.357470
    334 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.649399
    335 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457540
    336 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:918 PollResults:map[Biden:50.60240963855422 Trump:49.39759036144578] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    337 		Sample size: 918.000000
    338 		Mean R: 49.397590
    339 		Std of mean R: 1.650126
    340 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.357530
    341 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.650126
    342 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.457546
    343 
    344 State: Illinois
    345 	Votes: 19
    346 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    347 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    348 
    349 State: Indiana
    350 	Votes: 11
    351 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    352 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    353 
    354 State: Missouri
    355 	Votes: 10
    356 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    357 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    358 	Poll: {PollId:87216 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:34.6 Kennedy:6.5 Stein:0.6 Trump:50.4 West:1] Date:2024-06-19 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    359 		Sample size: 850.000000
    360 		Mean R: 59.294118
    361 		Std of mean R: 1.685097
    362 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    363 		N republican wins: 6
    364 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    365 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.018430
    366 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998962
    367 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:850 PollResults:map[Biden:40.70588235294119 Trump:59.294117647058826] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    368 		Sample size: 850.000000
    369 		Mean R: 59.294118
    370 		Std of mean R: 1.685097
    371 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    372 		N republican wins: 6
    373 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    374 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.018430
    375 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998962
    376 
    377 State: Nebraska
    378 	Votes: 5
    379 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:Split 2012:R 2016:Split 2020:Split]
    380 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    381 
    382 State: Tennessee
    383 	Votes: 11
    384 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    385 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    386 
    387 State: Arkansas
    388 	Votes: 6
    389 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    390 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    391 
    392 State: Kansas
    393 	Votes: 6
    394 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    395 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    396 
    397 State: Ohio
    398 	Votes: 17
    399 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    400 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.666667
    401 	Poll: {PollId:87145 SampleSize:1137 PollResults:map[Biden:41 Kennedy:5 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:48 West:0] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    402 		Sample size: 1011.930000
    403 		Mean R: 53.932584
    404 		Std of mean R: 1.566922
    405 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.993959
    406 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.566922
    407 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.760036
    408 	Poll: {PollId:87108 SampleSize:802 PollResults:map[Biden:40 Kennedy:7 Stein:3 Trump:48 West:2] Date:2024-05-29 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    409 		Sample size: 705.760000
    410 		Mean R: 54.545455
    411 		Std of mean R: 1.874301
    412 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.992349
    413 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.874301
    414 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780471
    415 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1717 PollResults:map[Biden:45.81560118531283 Trump:54.184398814687164] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    416 		Sample size: 1717.000000
    417 		Mean R: 54.184399
    418 		Std of mean R: 1.202427
    419 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999749
    420 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.202427
    421 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.789393
    422 
    423 State: Pennsylvania
    424 	Votes: 19
    425 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    426 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    427 	Poll: {PollId:87152 SampleSize:1181 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:3 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:47 West:1] Date:2024-06-06 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    428 		Sample size: 1086.520000
    429 		Mean R: 51.086957
    430 		Std of mean R: 1.516521
    431 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.763234
    432 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.516521
    433 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.578101
    434 	Poll: {PollId:87181 SampleSize:456 PollResults:map[Biden:42 Kennedy:5 Oliver:0 Stein:1 Trump:44] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    435 		Sample size: 392.160000
    436 		Mean R: 51.162791
    437 		Std of mean R: 2.524183
    438 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.677479
    439 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.524183
    440 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.570728
    441 	Poll: {PollId:87211 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:42.2 Kennedy:4.9 Stein:0.9 Trump:44.8 West:0.2] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    442 		Sample size: 870.000000
    443 		Mean R: 51.494253
    444 		Std of mean R: 1.694402
    445 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.811078
    446 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.694402
    447 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.603496
    448 	Poll: {PollId:87098 SampleSize:1008 PollResults:map[Biden:43 Kennedy:7 Trump:42] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    449 		Sample size: 856.800000
    450 		Mean R: 49.411765
    451 		Std of mean R: 1.708049
    452 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.365276
    453 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.708049
    454 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.458960
    455 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:3205 PollResults:map[Biden:49.24098730923294 Trump:50.75901269076706] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    456 		Sample size: 3205.000000
    457 		Mean R: 50.759013
    458 		Std of mean R: 0.883092
    459 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.804966
    460 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.883092
    461 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.561762
    462 
    463 State: West Virginia
    464 	Votes: 4
    465 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    466 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    467 	Poll: {PollId:87120 SampleSize:464 PollResults:map[Biden:28 Stein:2 Trump:55] Date:2024-06-04 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    468 		Sample size: 385.120000
    469 		Mean R: 66.265060
    470 		Std of mean R: 2.409263
    471 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    472 		N republican wins: 6
    473 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    474 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742596
    475 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
    476 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:385 PollResults:map[Biden:33.73493975903615 Trump:66.26506024096385] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    477 		Sample size: 385.000000
    478 		Mean R: 66.265060
    479 		Std of mean R: 2.409639
    480 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    481 		N republican wins: 6
    482 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    483 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.742972
    484 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.999993
    485 
    486 State: South Carolina
    487 	Votes: 9
    488 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    489 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    490 
    491 State: California
    492 	Votes: 54
    493 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    494 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    495 	Poll: {PollId:87167 SampleSize:1098 PollResults:map[Biden:55 Trump:31] Date:2024-06-02 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    496 		Sample size: 944.280000
    497 		Mean R: 36.046512
    498 		Std of mean R: 1.562476
    499 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    500 		N republican wins: 0
    501 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    502 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.895809
    503 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
    504 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:944 PollResults:map[Biden:63.95348837209303 Trump:36.04651162790697] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    505 		Sample size: 944.000000
    506 		Mean R: 36.046512
    507 		Std of mean R: 1.562708
    508 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    509 		N republican wins: 0
    510 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    511 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.896041
    512 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000001
    513 
    514 State: Georgia
    515 	Votes: 16
    516 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:D]
    517 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.833333
    518 	Poll: {PollId:87178 SampleSize:471 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:6 Oliver:0 Stein:0 Trump:44] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    519 		Sample size: 390.930000
    520 		Mean R: 53.012048
    521 		Std of mean R: 2.524242
    522 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.883614
    523 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.524242
    524 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.677841
    525 	Poll: {PollId:87213 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:37.4 Kennedy:5.9 Stein:0.9 Trump:44.9 West:1.4] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    526 		Sample size: 823.000000
    527 		Mean R: 54.556501
    528 		Std of mean R: 1.735638
    529 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.995671
    530 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.735638
    531 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.786524
    532 	Poll: {PollId:87109 SampleSize:1203 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Kennedy:8 Oliver:3 Stein:2 Trump:43 West:3] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    533 		Sample size: 962.400000
    534 		Mean R: 53.750000
    535 		Std of mean R: 1.607190
    536 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.990183
    537 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.607190
    538 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.748183
    539 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2176 PollResults:map[Biden:46.077570956610444 Trump:53.92242904338956] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    540 		Sample size: 2176.000000
    541 		Mean R: 53.922429
    542 		Std of mean R: 1.068563
    543 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999879
    544 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.068563
    545 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.780497
    546 
    547 State: Hawaii
    548 	Votes: 4
    549 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    550 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    551 
    552 State: Oregon
    553 	Votes: 8
    554 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    555 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    556 
    557 State: Rhode Island
    558 	Votes: 4
    559 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    560 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    561 
    562 State: Michigan
    563 	Votes: 15
    564 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:D]
    565 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    566 	Poll: {PollId:87209 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:41.9 Kennedy:5.2 Stein:0.8 Trump:44 West:1.2] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    567 		Sample size: 859.000000
    568 		Mean R: 51.222352
    569 		Std of mean R: 1.705468
    570 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.763228
    571 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.705468
    572 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.584821
    573 	Poll: {PollId:87179 SampleSize:594 PollResults:map[Biden:36 Kennedy:8 Oliver:1 Stein:1 Trump:37] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    574 		Sample size: 433.620000
    575 		Mean R: 50.684932
    576 		Std of mean R: 2.400903
    577 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.612285
    578 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.400903
    579 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.542608
    580 	Poll: {PollId:87097 SampleSize:722 PollResults:map[Biden:44 Kennedy:8 Trump:43] Date:2024-05-31 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    581 		Sample size: 628.140000
    582 		Mean R: 49.425287
    583 		Std of mean R: 1.994863
    584 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.386637
    585 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.994863
    586 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.461813
    587 	Poll: {PollId:87110 SampleSize:710 PollResults:map[Biden:45.1 Kennedy:3.3 Stein:0.5 Trump:46.3 West:1.1] Date:2024-06-03 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    588 		Sample size: 648.940000
    589 		Mean R: 50.656455
    590 		Std of mean R: 1.962593
    591 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.630993
    592 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 5.962593
    593 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543833
    594 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2569 PollResults:map[Biden:49.4505195158968 Trump:50.549480484103206] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    595 		Sample size: 2569.000000
    596 		Mean R: 50.549480
    597 		Std of mean R: 0.986420
    598 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.711252
    599 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 4.986420
    600 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.543873
    601 
    602 State: Mississippi
    603 	Votes: 6
    604 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    605 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    606 
    607 State: New Hampshire
    608 	Votes: 4
    609 	History: map[2000:R 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    610 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.166667
    611 
    612 State: Alabama
    613 	Votes: 9
    614 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    615 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    616 
    617 State: Idaho
    618 	Votes: 4
    619 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    620 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    621 
    622 State: Iowa
    623 	Votes: 6
    624 	History: map[2000:D 2004:R 2008:D 2012:D 2016:R 2020:R]
    625 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.500000
    626 	Poll: {PollId:87175 SampleSize:632 PollResults:map[Biden:32 Kennedy:9 Oliver:2 Trump:50] Date:2024-06-14 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    627 		Sample size: 518.240000
    628 		Mean R: 60.975610
    629 		Std of mean R: 2.142795
    630 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    631 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.142795
    632 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.963011
    633 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:518 PollResults:map[Biden:39.02439024390244 Trump:60.97560975609756] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    634 		Sample size: 518.000000
    635 		Mean R: 60.975610
    636 		Std of mean R: 2.143292
    637 		Poll says chance of R win: 1.000000
    638 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 6.143292
    639 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.962999
    640 
    641 State: Maryland
    642 	Votes: 10
    643 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    644 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    645 
    646 State: Massachusetts
    647 	Votes: 11
    648 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    649 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    650 	Poll: {PollId:87105 SampleSize:700 PollResults:map[Biden:48 Kennedy:9 Trump:27] Date:2024-05-30 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    651 		Sample size: 525.000000
    652 		Mean R: 36.000000
    653 		Std of mean R: 2.094892
    654 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    655 		N republican wins: 0
    656 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    657 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
    658 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
    659 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:525 PollResults:map[Biden:64 Trump:36] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    660 		Sample size: 525.000000
    661 		Mean R: 36.000000
    662 		Std of mean R: 2.094892
    663 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.000000
    664 		N republican wins: 0
    665 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    666 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.428225
    667 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.000022
    668 
    669 State: North Dakota
    670 	Votes: 3
    671 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    672 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    673 
    674 State: Oklahoma
    675 	Votes: 7
    676 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    677 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    678 
    679 State: Texas
    680 	Votes: 40
    681 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    682 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    683 	Poll: {PollId:87203 SampleSize:1200 PollResults:map[Biden:39 Kennedy:8 Oliver:0 Stein:2 Trump:46 West:2] Date:2024-06-09 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    684 		Sample size: 1020.000000
    685 		Mean R: 54.117647
    686 		Std of mean R: 1.560243
    687 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.995844
    688 		N republican wins: 6
    689 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    690 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.893576
    691 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.922636
    692 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:1020 PollResults:map[Biden:45.88235294117647 Trump:54.11764705882353] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    693 		Sample size: 1020.000000
    694 		Mean R: 54.117647
    695 		Std of mean R: 1.560243
    696 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.995844
    697 		N republican wins: 6
    698 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    699 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.893576
    700 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.922636
    701 
    702 State: Louisiana
    703 	Votes: 8
    704 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    705 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    706 
    707 State: Minnesota
    708 	Votes: 10
    709 	History: map[2000:D 2004:D 2008:D 2012:D 2016:D 2020:D]
    710 	Historical base rate of R win: 0.000000
    711 	Poll: {PollId:87134 SampleSize:800 PollResults:map[Biden:44.5 Kennedy:6.4 Trump:40.6] Date:2024-06-05 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    712 		Sample size: 680.800000
    713 		Mean R: 47.708578
    714 		Std of mean R: 1.914272
    715 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.115649
    716 		N republican wins: 0
    717 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    718 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.247606
    719 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.240227
    720 	Poll: {PollId:87173 SampleSize:600 PollResults:map[Biden:45 Kennedy:7 Oliver:1 Stein:5 Trump:47 West:2] Date:2024-06-11 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
    721 		Sample size: 552.000000
    722 		Mean R: 51.086957
    723 		Std of mean R: 2.127638
    724 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.695281
    725 		N republican wins: 0
    726 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    727 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.460972
    728 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.623263
    729 	Poll: {PollId:87198 SampleSize:626 PollResults:map[Biden:47 Trump:41] Date:2024-06-16 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    730 		Sample size: 550.880000
    731 		Mean R: 46.590909
    732 		Std of mean R: 2.125346
    733 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.054355
    734 		N republican wins: 0
    735 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    736 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.458680
    737 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.162149
    738 	Poll: {PollId:87210 SampleSize:1000 PollResults:map[Biden:40.9 Kennedy:6.3 Stein:1.1 Trump:41.6 West:0.7] Date:2024-06-18 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    739 		Sample size: 825.000000
    740 		Mean R: 50.424242
    741 		Std of mean R: 1.740714
    742 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.596275
    743 		N republican wins: 0
    744 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    745 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.074047
    746 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.554883
    747 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:2608 PollResults:map[Biden:50.95373905576766 Trump:49.04626094423233] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    748 		Sample size: 2608.000000
    749 		Mean R: 49.046261
    750 		Std of mean R: 0.978897
    751 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.164954
    752 		N republican wins: 0
    753 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    754 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 2.312231
    755 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.339995
    756 
    757 State: Montana
    758 	Votes: 4
    759 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    760 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    761 	Poll: {PollId:87214 SampleSize:500 PollResults:map[Biden:37 Trump:57] Date:2024-06-13 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:REP}
    762 		Sample size: 470.000000
    763 		Mean R: 60.638298
    764 		Std of mean R: 2.253520
    765 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
    766 		N republican wins: 6
    767 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    768 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.586854
    769 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998491
    770 	Aggregate poll: {PollId: SampleSize:470 PollResults:map[Biden:39.361702127659576 Trump:60.638297872340424] Date:0001-01-01 00:00:00 +0000 UTC Partisan:}
    771 		Sample size: 470.000000
    772 		Mean R: 60.638298
    773 		Std of mean R: 2.253520
    774 		Poll says chance of R win: 0.999999
    775 		N republican wins: 6
    776 		=> Reducing additional uncertainty
    777 		Std with std_additional_uncertainty R: 3.586854
    778 		Poll plus uncertainty says chance of R win: 0.998491
    779 
    780 State: South Dakota
    781 	Votes: 3
    782 	History: map[2000:R 2004:R 2008:R 2012:R 2016:R 2020:R]
    783 	Historical base rate of R win: 1.000000
    784 
    785 [ 131,  132):  0.00% (0%)
    786 [ 132,  133):  0.00% (0%)
    787 [ 133,  134):  0.00% (0%)
    788 [ 134,  135):  0.00% (0%)
    789 [ 135,  136):  0.00% (0%)
    790 [ 136,  137):  0.00% (0%)
    791 [ 137,  138):  0.00% (0%)
    792 [ 138,  139):  0.00% (0%)
    793 [ 139,  140):  0.00% (0%)
    794 [ 140,  141):  0.00% (0%)
    795 [ 141,  142):  0.00% (0%)
    796 [ 142,  143):  0.00% (0%)
    797 [ 143,  144):  0.00% (0%)
    798 [ 144,  145):  0.00% (0%)
    799 [ 145,  146):  0.00% (0%)
    800 [ 146,  147):  0.00% (0%)
    801 [ 147,  148):  0.00% (0%)
    802 [ 148,  149):  0.00% (0%)
    803 [ 149,  150):  0.00% (0%)
    804 [ 150,  151):  0.00% (0%)
    805 [ 151,  152):  0.00% (0%)
    806 [ 152,  153):  0.00% (0%)
    807 [ 153,  154):  0.00% (0%)
    808 [ 154,  155):  0.00% (0%)
    809 [ 155,  156):  0.00% (0%)
    810 [ 156,  157):  0.00% (0%)
    811 [ 157,  158):  0.00% (0%)
    812 [ 158,  159):  0.00% (0%)
    813 [ 159,  160):  0.00% (0%)
    814 [ 160,  161):  0.00% (0%)
    815 [ 161,  162):  0.00% (0%)
    816 [ 162,  163):  0.00% (0%)
    817 [ 163,  164):  0.00% (0%)
    818 [ 164,  165):  0.00% (0%)
    819 [ 165,  166):  0.00% (0%)
    820 [ 166,  167):  0.00% (0%)
    821 [ 167,  168):  0.00% (0%)
    822 [ 168,  169):  0.00% (0%)
    823 [ 169,  170):  0.00% (0%)
    824 [ 170,  171):  0.00% (0%)
    825 [ 171,  172):  0.00% (0%)
    826 [ 172,  173):  0.00% (0%)
    827 [ 173,  174):  0.00% (0%)
    828 [ 174,  175):  0.01% (0%)
    829 [ 175,  176):  0.01% (0%)
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    848 [ 194,  195): ██ 0.04% (0%)
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    850 [ 196,  197): █ 0.03% (0%)
    851 [ 197,  198): ██ 0.04% (0%)
    852 [ 198,  199): ██ 0.05% (1%)
    853 [ 199,  200): ███ 0.06% (1%)
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    856 [ 202,  203): ███ 0.05% (1%)
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    863 [ 209,  210): ██████ 0.11% (1%)
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    865 [ 211,  212): ███████ 0.12% (2%)
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    873 [ 219,  220): ███████████ 0.19% (3%)
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    875 [ 221,  222): ███████████████ 0.26% (3%)
    876 [ 222,  223): ██████████████ 0.24% (4%)
    877 [ 223,  224): ███████████████ 0.25% (4%)
    878 [ 224,  225): ████████████████ 0.27% (4%)
    879 [ 225,  226): █████████████████ 0.28% (4%)
    880 [ 226,  227): ██████████████████ 0.30% (5%)
    881 [ 227,  228): █████████████████ 0.30% (5%)
    882 [ 228,  229): ████████████████████ 0.33% (5%)
    883 [ 229,  230): ██████████████████████ 0.36% (6%)
    884 [ 230,  231): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (6%)
    885 [ 231,  232): █████████████████████████ 0.41% (6%)
    886 [ 232,  233): █████████████████████████ 0.41% (7%)
    887 [ 233,  234): ████████████████████████ 0.41% (7%)
    888 [ 234,  235): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (8%)
    889 [ 235,  236): ████████████████████████████████ 0.53% (8%)
    890 [ 236,  237): █████████████████████████████ 0.49% (9%)
    891 [ 237,  238): ██████████████████████████████ 0.50% (9%)
    892 [ 238,  239): █████████████████████████████████ 0.55% (10%)
    893 [ 239,  240): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.61% (10%)
    894 [ 240,  241): ███████████████████████████████████████ 0.65% (11%)
    895 [ 241,  242): █████████████████████████████████████ 0.62% (12%)
    896 [ 242,  243): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (12%)
    897 [ 243,  244): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.59% (13%)
    898 [ 244,  245): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (14%)
    899 [ 245,  246): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.86% (14%)
    900 [ 246,  247): ███████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.79% (15%)
    901 [ 247,  248): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.72% (16%)
    902 [ 248,  249): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.74% (17%)
    903 [ 249,  250): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (18%)
    904 [ 250,  251): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (19%)
    905 [ 251,  252): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (20%)
    906 [ 252,  253): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.94% (21%)
    907 [ 253,  254): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (21%)
    908 [ 254,  255): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (22%)
    909 [ 255,  256): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.15% (24%)
    910 [ 256,  257): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (25%)
    911 [ 257,  258): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.07% (26%)
    912 [ 258,  259): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.98% (27%)
    913 [ 259,  260): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.05% (28%)
    914 [ 260,  261): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.23% (29%)
    915 [ 261,  262): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.39% (30%)
    916 [ 262,  263): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.29% (32%)
    917 [ 263,  264): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (33%)
    918 [ 264,  265): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.26% (34%)
    919 [ 265,  266): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.38% (36%)
    920 [ 266,  267): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (37%)
    921 [ 267,  268): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (38%)
    922 [ 268,  269): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.34% (40%)
    923 [ 269,  270): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (41%)
    924 [ 270,  271): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (43%)
    925 [ 271,  272): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (44%)
    926 [ 272,  273): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (46%)
    927 [ 273,  274): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (47%)
    928 [ 274,  275): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.44% (48%)
    929 [ 275,  276): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.54% (50%)
    930 [ 276,  277): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.57% (51%)
    931 [ 277,  278): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.55% (53%)
    932 [ 278,  279): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (54%)
    933 [ 279,  280): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (56%)
    934 [ 280,  281): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.64% (58%)
    935 [ 281,  282): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.62% (59%)
    936 [ 282,  283): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.47% (61%)
    937 [ 283,  284): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.40% (62%)
    938 [ 284,  285): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.46% (64%)
    939 [ 285,  286): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.58% (65%)
    940 [ 286,  287): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (67%)
    941 [ 287,  288): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.43% (68%)
    942 [ 288,  289): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.30% (69%)
    943 [ 289,  290): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (71%)
    944 [ 290,  291): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.50% (72%)
    945 [ 291,  292): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.49% (74%)
    946 [ 292,  293): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.22% (75%)
    947 [ 293,  294): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.23% (76%)
    948 [ 294,  295): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.25% (77%)
    949 [ 295,  296): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.35% (79%)
    950 [ 296,  297): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.33% (80%)
    951 [ 297,  298): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.14% (81%)
    952 [ 298,  299): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.97% (82%)
    953 [ 299,  300): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.00% (83%)
    954 [ 300,  301): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.19% (84%)
    955 [ 301,  302): ██████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 1.08% (85%)
    956 [ 302,  303): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.89% (86%)
    957 [ 303,  304): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (87%)
    958 [ 304,  305): ███████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.85% (88%)
    959 [ 305,  306): █████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.87% (89%)
    960 [ 306,  307): ████████████████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.93% (90%)
    961 [ 307,  308): ███████████████████████████████████████████ 0.71% (91%)
    962 [ 308,  309): ██████████████████████████████████████ 0.63% (91%)
    963 [ 309,  310): ████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.73% (92%)
    964 [ 310,  311): █████████████████████████████████████████████ 0.75% (93%)
    965 [ 311,  312): ████████████████████████████████████ 0.60% (93%)
    966 [ 312,  313): ██████████████████████████████████ 0.56% (94%)
    967 [ 313,  314): █████████████████████████████ 0.49% (94%)
    968 [ 314,  315): ███████████████████████████████ 0.52% (95%)
    969 [ 315,  316): ███████████████████████████████ 0.52% (95%)
    970 [ 316,  317): ███████████████████████████ 0.46% (96%)
    971 [ 317,  318): ███████████████████ 0.32% (96%)
    972 [ 318,  319): ████████████████████ 0.34% (96%)
    973 [ 319,  320): ██████████████████████████ 0.44% (97%)
    974 [ 320,  321): ██████████████████████ 0.37% (97%)
    975 [ 321,  322): ██████████████ 0.23% (98%)
    976 [ 322,  323): █████████████ 0.22% (98%)
    977 [ 323,  324): ████████████ 0.21% (98%)
    978 [ 324,  325): ████████████████ 0.27% (98%)
    979 [ 325,  326): ██████████████████ 0.30% (99%)
    980 [ 326,  327): ██████████ 0.17% (99%)
    981 [ 327,  328): █████ 0.09% (99%)
    982 [ 328,  329): ███████ 0.12% (99%)
    983 [ 329,  330): ███████████ 0.18% (99%)
    984 [ 330,  331): ████████ 0.14% (99%)
    985 [ 331,  332): ███ 0.07% (99%)
    986 [ 332,  333): ██ 0.05% (99%)
    987 [ 333,  334): ███ 0.06% (99%)
    988 [ 334,  335): ██████ 0.10% (100%)
    989 [ 335,  336): ██████ 0.11% (100%)
    990 [ 336,  337): ███ 0.05% (100%)
    991 [ 337,  338): █ 0.03% (100%)
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    994 [ 340,  341): ██ 0.04% (100%)
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   1099 [ 445,  446):  0.00% (100%)
   1100 [ 446,  447):  0.00% (100%)
   1101 [ 447,  448):  0.00% (100%)
   1102 [ 448,  449):  0.00% (100%)
   1103 [ 449,  450):  0.00% (100%)
   1104 [ 450,  451):  0.00% (100%)
   1105 [ 451,  452):  0.00% (100%)
   1106 [ 452,  453):  0.00% (100%)
   1107 [ 453,  454):  0.00% (100%)
   1108 [ 454,  455):  0.00% (100%)
   1109 [ 455,  456):  0.00% (100%)
   1110 [ 456,  457):  0.00% (100%)
   1111 [ 457,  458):  0.00% (100%)
   1112 [ 458,  459):  0.00% (100%)
   1113 [ 459,  460):  0.00% (100%)
   1114 [ 460,  461):  0.00% (100%)
   1115 [ 461,  462):  0.00% (100%)
   1116 [ 462,  463):  0.00% (100%)
   1117 [ 463,  464):  0.00% (100%)
   1118 [ 464,  465):  0.00% (100%)
   1119 [ 465,  466):  0.00% (100%)
   1120 [ 466,  467):  0.00% (100%)
   1121 [ 467,  468):  0.00% (100%)
   1122 [ 468,  469):  0.00% (100%)
   1123 [ 469,  470):  0.00% (100%)
   1124 [ 470,  471):  0.00% (100%)
   1125 [ 471,  472):  0.00% (100%)
   1126 [ 472,  473):  0.00% (100%)
   1127 [ 473,  474):  0.00% (100%)
   1128 [ 474,  475):  0.00% (100%)
   1129 [ 475,  476):  0.00% (100%)
   1130 [ 476,  477):  0.00% (100%)
   1131 [ 477,  478):  0.00% (100%)
   1132 [ 478,  479):  0.00% (100%)
   1133 [ 479,  480):  0.00% (100%)
   1134 [ 480,  481):  0.00% (100%)
   1135 [ 481,  482):  0.00% (100%)
   1136 [ 482,  483):  0.00% (100%)
   1137 [ 483,  484):  0.00% (100%)
   1138 [ 484,  485):  0.00% (100%)
   1139 [ 485,  486):  0.00% (100%)
   1140 [ 486,  487):  0.00% (100%)
   1141 [ 487,  488):  0.00% (100%)
   1142 [ 488,  489):  0.00% (100%)
   1143 [ 489,  490):  0.00% (100%)
   1144 [ 490,  491):  0.00% (100%)
   1145 [ 491,  492):  0.00% (100%)
   1146 [ 492,  493):  0.00% (100%)
   1147 [ 493,  494):  0.00% (100%)
   1148 [ 494,  495):  0.00% (100%)
   1149 [ 495,  496):  0.00% (100%)
   1150 [ 496,  497):  0.00% (100%)
   1151 [ 497,  498):  0.00% (100%)
   1152 [ 498,  499):  0.00% (100%)
   1153 [ 499,  500):  0.00% (100%)
   1154 [ 500,  501):  0.00% (100%)
   1155 [ 501,  502):  0.00% (100%)
   1156 [ 502,  503):  0.00% (100%)
   1157 [ 503,  504):  0.00% (100%)
   1158 [ 504,  505):  0.00% (100%)
   1159 [ 505,  506):  0.00% (100%)
   1160 [ 506,  507):  0.00% (100%)
   1161 [ 507,  508):  0.00% (100%)
   1162 [ 508,  509):  0.00% (100%)
   1163 [ 509,  510):  0.00% (100%)
   1164 [ 510,  511):  0.00% (100%)
   1165 [ 511,  512):  0.00% (100%)
   1166 [ 512,  513):  0.00% (100%)
   1167 [ 513,  514):  0.00% (100%)
   1168 [ 514,  515):  0.00% (100%)
   1169 [ 515,  516):  0.00% (100%)
   1170 [ 516,  517):  0.00% (100%)
   1171 [ 517,  518):  0.00% (100%)
   1172 [ 518,  519):  0.00% (100%)
   1173 [ 519,  520):  0.00% (100%)
   1174 [ 520,  521):  0.00% (100%)
   1175 [ 521,  522):  0.00% (100%)
   1176 [ 522,  523):  0.00% (100%)
   1177 [ 523,  524):  0.00% (100%)
   1178 [ 524,  525):  0.00% (100%)
   1179 [ 525,  526):  0.00% (100%)
   1180 [ 526,  527):  0.00% (100%)
   1181 [ 527,  528):  0.00% (100%)
   1182 [ 528,  529):  0.00% (100%)
   1183 [ 529,  530):  0.00% (100%)
   1184 [ 530,  531):  0.00% (100%)
   1185 [ 531,  532):  0.00% (100%)
   1186 [ 532,  533):  0.00% (100%)
   1187 [ 533,  534):  0.00% (100%)
   1188 [ 534,  535):  0.00% (100%)
   1189 [ 535,  536):  0.00% (100%)
   1190 [ 536,  537):  0.00% (100%)
   1191 [ 537,  538):  0.00% (100%)
   1192 
   1193 % republicans: 0.589444